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May 2017
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product; Product Launch; Marketing

2005
Working Paper

Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler

A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details

Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods

March 2022 (Revised July 2022)
Technical Note

Prediction & Machine Learning

By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation

February 2021
Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein

This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

Article

Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction

By: A.V. Whillans, Jessie Pow and Joe J. Gladstone

Seven studies examine the association between time-saving purchases (e.g., housecleaning and meal delivery services) and relationship satisfaction. Study 1 uses an eleven-year longitudinal panel survey to show that increases in time-saving purchases predict long-term... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Family and Family Relationships; Satisfaction; Well-being

06 May 2015
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

Summing Up Personal Predictive Analytics: Should We Be Careful What We Wish For? The world of continuous monitoring of numerous sensors for machines and humans, limitless information storage capacity, and big data combined with rapid... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

April 2008
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption

July–August 1995
Article

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

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August 2014
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)

By: John Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Product Diffusion; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

January–February 2021
Article

Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim

We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy

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April 2011
Teaching Note

Prediction Markets at Google (TN)

Teaching Note for 607088. View Details

Keywords: Interests; Forecasting and Prediction; Market Participation; Information Technology Industry

1996
Chapter

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and Mihnea Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

Article

Human Decisions and Machine Predictions

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

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August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2003 (Revised May 2005)
Teaching Note

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for (5-502-045). View Details

24 Sep 2020
Research & Ideas

Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought

research by Harvard Business School Professors Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson begs to differ. Financial crises, even ones as calamitous as the 2007-2008 banking meltdown, are surprisingly predictable to those who know the warning... View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Financial Services

20 Jun 2016
Research & Ideas

When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong

about presuming preferences. When predicting other people’s tastes, we tend to erroneously assume that liking one thing precludes enjoying another, dissimilar option, according to a recent set of studies by researchers at Harvard Business... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail

2009
Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

09 Feb 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Do Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance?

Keywords: by Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine & Michael W. Toffel

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