market timing - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2021
Working Paper

Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford

Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on... View Details

Keywords: Bank Deposits; Market Power; Net Interest Margin (NIM); Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty

February 2021 (Revised April 2024)
Case

Shopify: The Conquest for Chinese E-Commerce

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Avani Patel, Samantha Lin and Ariel Yang

In mid-2020, Tobias Lütke, CEO of Shopify, faced a critical decision on how to time potential expansion into the China market. Over the prior 15 years, his Canadian software-as-a-service company had grown from a small e-commerce solutions provider to a full service... View Details

Research Summary

Microwedges: Challenging power one small opening at a time [Dissertation, job market paper]

Based on a 31-month qualitative inductive study of multidisciplinary change teams, I introduce the concept of the “microwedge”—a small action or series of actions by team members that allows the team to examine their own assumptions so that they can begin to engage... View Details

March 2022
Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods

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01 Jun 2013
News

Harvest Time

Morgan Stanley and after launching an adventure-tour start-up, Ransom cofounded Wildfire, a social media marketing company acquired last year by Google for a reported $350 million. Discussing her thoughts on leadership and the culture at... View Details

Keywords: social media; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information; Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services; Professional Services

14 Feb 2011
Research & Ideas

Clay Christensen’s Milkshake Marketing

Updated to clarify a failure rate figure included in an earlier version. When planning new products, companies often start by segmenting their markets and positioning their merchandise accordingly. This segmentation involves either... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Service; Consumer Products; Food & Beverage

January 2008 (Revised August 2008)
Case

The Time Warner Center: Mixed-Use Development

By: A. Eugene Kohn, Arthur I Segel and David Lane

Despite the failure of other attempts to bring mixed use development in New York City, Related Companies in 2004 opened Time Warner Center, a huge complex incorporating offices, shops, restaurants, music auditoriums, a hotel, and luxury apartments on Columbus Circle in... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Marketing; Buildings and Facilities; Construction; Development Economics; New York (city, NY)

March 2008
Course Overview Note

Dynamic Markets

By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford

The Dynamic Markets course at Harvard Business School is organized around the hands-on application of financial decision making in a wide variety of capital market settings. The course relies heavily on in-class simulations of a range of market settings where students... View Details

Keywords: Value Creation; Decision Making; Capital Markets; Competitive Strategy; Profit; Applications and Software; Information; Strategy; Price; Outcome or Result; Curriculum and Courses; Theory

July 18, 2025
Article

Using Gen AI for Early-Stage Market Research

By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe

Generative AI, particularly large language models (LLMs), offers a promising new tool for early-stage market research by simulating customer responses to product concepts. This can allow companies to draw conclusions similar to those they’d obtain by survey customers... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; Large Language Model; Generative Ai; Artificial Intelligence; Market Research; Research; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry

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January 1994
Article

Jumping the Gun: Imperfections and Institutions Related to the Timing of Market Transactions

By: A. E. Roth and X. Xing

Keywords: Market Transactions

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June 2002
Article

The Timing of Bids in Internet Auctions: Market Design, Bidder Behavior, and Artificial Agents

By: Axel Ockenfels and Alvin E. Roth

Keywords: Auctions; Bids and Bidding; Internet and the Web; Markets; Design; Behavior; Internet and the Web

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July 1996
Article

New Product Development Structures: The Effect of Customer Overload on Post-Concept Time to Market

By: S. Datar, C. Jordan, S. Kekre, S. Rajiv and K. Srinivasan

Keywords: Product; Research and Development; Customers; Markets

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19 Nov 2014
HBS Case

Marketing Marijuana

against federal law? But in the absence of enforcement action by the United States government, perhaps the better question is, what will the inevitable national market in marijuana shake out? Will it consist of grungy underground head... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Food & Beverage

Article

The Value of Trading Relations in Turbulent Times

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Zhaogang Song

This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers... View Details

Keywords: OTC Markets; Network; Corporate Bonds; Crisis; Intermediation Chains; Leaning Against The Wind; Networks; Bonds; Behavior; Financial Crisis

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Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

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September 1994 (Revised May 1995)
Case

Time Life, Inc. (A)

By: David A. Garvin and Jonathan West

Time Life has historically been a continuity book publisher, selling 20-volume book series via direct mail. Now, however, music and video/TV divisions have been added, and the CEO is trying to craft a strategy that will align the divisions so they can produce... View Details

Keywords: Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Business Divisions; Horizontal Integration; Production; Creativity; Alignment; Advertising; Publishing Industry

16 Jul 2014
HBS Case

Marketing Obamacare

healthcare legislation in the US ensured that it would be complex and tough to sell to the public, Quelch says. But that was just the problem: Congress and the Obama Administration didn't sell it. "Fundamentally, it's a marketing... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Health

2023
Working Paper

Scapegoating and Discrimination in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Airbnb

By: Michael Luca, Elizaveta Pronkina and Michelangelo Rossi

We present evidence that discrimination against Asian-American Airbnb users sharply increased at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a DiD approach, we find that hosts with distinctively Asian names experienced a 20 percent decline in guests relative to hosts... View Details

Keywords: Discrimination; Behavioral Economics; Market Design; Health Pandemics; Prejudice and Bias; Digital Platforms; Design

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January 2019
Case

Understanding the Brand Equity of Nestlé Crunch Bar: A Market Research Case

By: Jill Avery and Gerald Zaltman

In early 2018, Nestlé announced the sale of its U.S. candy-making division and a select collection of 20 of its confectionery brands, including the Nestlé Crunch Bar, to Ferrero SpA for $2.8 billion. Under the terms of the Nestlé acquisition, each of the purchased... View Details

Keywords: Brand Equity; Marketing; Market Research; Qualitative Research; Marketing Communication; Customer Satisfaction; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Communications; Marketing Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; North America; Italy

February 2010 (Revised October 2010)
Case

YouTube: Time to Charge Users?

By: Anita Elberse and Sunil Gupta

In January 2010, YouTube, the world's largest online video aggregator, was still seeking to become profitable. Was the time right for Google, YouTube's parent company, to charge users seeking to upload content, as some analysts had suggested—and if so, who should be... View Details

Keywords: Digital Marketing; Business Model; Cost; Profit; Revenue; Consumer Behavior; Internet and the Web; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

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