Publications

June 2010
Article

A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics

2017
Working Paper

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; System Shocks; Credit; Labor; United States

05 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 5

emerging Asian markets. Paper: http://www.asiabusinessinsights.com/articles.html#sub_articles_E-commerce_in_Asia Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns Authors:Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry

June 2013
Article

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit

June 2013
Article

Are There Too Many Safe Securities? Securitization and the Incentives for Information Production

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Adi Sunderam

We present a model that helps explain several past collapses of securitization markets. Originators issue too many informationally insensitive securities in good times, blunting investor incentives to become informed. The resulting endogenous scarcity of informed... View Details

Keywords: Information; Debt Securities; Financial Crisis

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

13 Jan 2015
First Look

First Look: January 13

employee confusion about or neglect of the tax properties of Roth balances and (2) partition dependence. Download working paper: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20738 The Rise and Fall of Demand for Securitizations By: Chernenko, Sergey,... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2014
Article

The Growth and Limits of Arbitrage: Evidence from Short Interest

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Adi Sunderam

We develop a novel methodology to infer the amount of capital allocated to quantitative equity arbitrage strategies. Using this methodology, which exploits time-variation in the cross section of short interest, we document that the amount of capital devoted to value... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Financial Instruments; Capital Markets; Investment

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

September 2018
Article

Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao

We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Asset Pricing

August 2015
Article

A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We study optimal government debt maturity in a model where investors derive monetary services from holding riskless short-term securities. In a setting where the government is the only issuer of such riskless paper, it trades off the monetary premium associated with... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Debt Securities

November 2016
Article

Who Neglects Risk? Investor Experience and the Credit Boom

By: Sergey Chernenko, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Adi Sunderam

Many have argued that overoptimistic thinking on the part of lenders helps fuel credit booms. We use new microdata on mutual funds' holdings of securitizations to examine which investors are susceptible to such boom-time thinking. We show that firsthand experience... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Investment; Experience and Expertise