Publications

June 2010
Article

A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics

2017
Working Paper

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; System Shocks; Credit; Labor; United States

Forthcoming
Article

The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets

By: Jeremy C. Stein and Jonathan Wallen

We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the administered policy rate on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. In spite of the arguably more money-like properties of an investment in... View Details

Keywords: Debt Securities; Demand and Consumers; Price

05 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 5, 2010

and recovery to be associated with increases in orders from Hugo Boss's retailer customers Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/11-034.pdf A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity Authors:Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2002
Other Unpublished Work

Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein

We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details

Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return

June 2004
Article

Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein

We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details

Keywords: Markets; Financial Liquidity; Price; Trade; Sales; Equity; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Accounting Industry

10 Oct 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, October 10, 2017

C. Stein Abstract—Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

01 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 1

Jeremy C. Stein Abstract—We study optimal government debt maturity in a model where investors derive monetary services from holding riskless short-term securities. In a setting... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

August 2015
Article

Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks

By: Victoria Ivashina, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein

A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale... View Details

Keywords: Banks; Global Banks; Credit Supply; Dollar Funding; International Finance; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry

November 2023
Article

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details

Keywords: Term Premium; Exchange Rate; Currency Exchange Rate; Bonds

September 2015
Article

Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein and Robert W. Vishny

We examine the business model of traditional commercial banks when they compete with shadow banks. While both types of intermediaries create safe "money-like" claims, they go about this in different ways. Traditional banks create money-like claims by holding illiquid... View Details

Keywords: Shadow Banking; Safe Money-like Claims; Commercial Banking

2016
Article

The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e., to finance risky assets using... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Policy; Risk Management; Public Administration Industry; United States