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- All HBS Web
(92)
- News (29)
- Research (49)
- Multimedia (2)
- Faculty Publications (30)
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- October 2023
- Article
Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more... View Details
Keywords: Strategic Voting; Coordination; Bandwagon Effect; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France
Granzier, Riako, Vincent Pons, and Clémence Tricaud. "Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 15, no. 4 (October 2023): 177–217.
- 19 Feb 2019
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, February 19, 2019
explore the mechanisms underlying the relationship between managerial discretion and future performance. Strict ID Laws Don’t Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2016 By: Cantoni, Enrico, View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- July 2021
- Article
Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, from canvassers supporting... View Details
Keywords: Campaigns; Candidates; Elections; Experiment; Political Parties; Turnout; Voting Behavior; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; Interpersonal Communication; Italy
Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy." Economics & Politics 33, no. 2 (July 2021): 379–402.
- 10 May 2016
- First Look
May 10, 2016
gathering tasks. We use the framework and examples of successful research studies in the nancial reporting literature to clarify how data-gathering choices affect a study’s ability to achieve its goals and... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 2019
- Working Paper
Biometric Monitoring, Service Delivery and Misreporting: Evidence from Healthcare in India
By: Thomas Bossuroy, Clara Delavallade and Vincent Pons
Developing countries increasingly use biometric identification technology in hopes of improving the reliability of administrative information and delivering social services more efficiently. This paper exploits the random placement of biometric tracking devices in... View Details
Keywords: Biometric Technology; Health Care and Treatment; Technological Innovation; Analytics and Data Science; Quality; Performance Improvement; India
Bossuroy, Thomas, Clara Delavallade, and Vincent Pons. "Biometric Monitoring, Service Delivery and Misreporting: Evidence from Healthcare in India." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26388, October 2019. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economics and Statistics.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States
By: Amory Gethin and Vincent Pons
Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes.... View Details
Gethin, Amory, and Vincent Pons. "Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32342, April 2024.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections
By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31503, July 2023.
- September 2018
- Article
Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD... View Details
Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; France
Pons, Vincent, and Clémence Tricaud. "Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates." Econometrica 86, no. 5 (September 2018): 1621–1649.
- Research Summary
Overview
By: Vincent Pons
Professor Pons studies questions in political economy and development with the goal of understanding how democratic systems function, and how they can be improved.
He decomposes the electoral cycle into four essential steps: the factors affecting voter... View Details
He decomposes the electoral cycle into four essential steps: the factors affecting voter... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates
By: Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
In French parliamentary and local elections, candidates ranked first and second in the first round automatically qualify for the second round, while a third candidate qualifies only when selected by more than 12.5 percent of registered citizens. Using a fuzzy RDD... View Details
Keywords: Expressive Voting; Strategic Voting; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France
Pons, Vincent, and Clémence Tricaud. "Expressive Voting and Its Cost: Evidence from Runoffs with Two or Three Candidates." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-107, May 2017. (Revised February 2018. Revise and resubmit requested, Econometrica.)
- 2025
- Working Paper
Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters
By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Emilie Sartre
Using data on the residential location and migration for every voter in U.S. states recording partisan registration between 2008–2020, we find that residential segregation between Democrats and Republicans has increased year over year at all geographic levels, from... View Details
Brown, Jacob R., Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons, and Emilie Sartre. "Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33422, January 2025.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections
By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each... View Details
Keywords: Political Parties; Incumbent Politicians; Democracy; Political Elections; Competitive Advantage
Dano, Kevin, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30541, October 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France
By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
This paper investigates the effects of campaign finance rules on electoral outcomes. In French departmental and municipal elections, candidates competing in districts above 9,000 inhabitants face spending limits and are eligible for public reimbursement if they obtain... View Details
Keywords: Political Elections; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Outcome or Result; France
Broberg, Nikolaj, Vincent Pons, and Clémence Tricaud. "The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29805, February 2022.
- May 2023
- Article
How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details
Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
- 2013
- Book
Porte à porte: Reconquérir la démocratie sur le terrain
By: Guillaume Liégey, Arthur Muller and Vincent Pons
From January to May 2012, campaign activists supporting François Hollande knocked at five millions doors, making this door-to-door effort the largest in Europe to date. This project was formed by Guillaume Liégey, Arthur Muller, and Vincent Pons, who had met at the... View Details
Liégey, Guillaume, Arthur Muller, and Vincent Pons. Porte à porte: Reconquérir la démocratie sur le terrain. Calmann-Lévy, 2013, French ed.
- 23 Aug 2019
- Sharpening Your Skills
Has the Corporate Mission Just Been Disrupted?
their “agency” at every level will be in the best position to create change. Corporate social responsibility in action Activist CEOs Are Rising Up—and Their Customers Are Listening Are product sales affected by the CEO's stance on... View Details
- November 2021
- Article
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws... View Details
Keywords: Voter ID Laws; Voter Turnout; Voting; Political Elections; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States
Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 4 (November 2021): 2615–2660.
- April 2022
- Article
Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S.
By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate... View Details
Keywords: Voting; Behavior; Geographic Location; Personal Characteristics; Situation or Environment; United States
Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S." American Economic Review 112, no. 4 (April 2022): 1226–1272.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and... View Details
Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021
By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Sahil Chinoy, Martin Koenen and Vincent Pons
We ask how childhood environment shapes political behavior. We measure young voters’ participation and party affiliation in nationally comprehensive voter files and reconstruct their childhood location histories based on their parents’ addresses. We compare outcomes of... View Details
Brown, Jacob R., Enrico Cantoni, Sahil Chinoy, Martin Koenen, and Vincent Pons. "The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31759, October 2023.