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- All HBS Web
(1,825)
- People (1)
- News (166)
- Research (1,464)
- Events (6)
- Multimedia (10)
- Faculty Publications (1,158)
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- February 2024
- Case
Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty
By: Paul A. Gompers and Fares Khrais
Nuwa Capital (Nuwa) was a venture capital firm based in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The business was founded in 2020 by Khaled Talhouni and his partners Sarah Abu Risheh, and Stephanie Nour Prince (they were later joined by Nitin Reen... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Strategy; Decisions; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; Dubai; Bahrain
Gompers, Paul A., and Fares Khrais. "Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Case 224-016, February 2024.
- 15 May 2020
- Research & Ideas
Find Your Pragmatic Path through Radical Uncertainty
Reprinted with permission from CommonWealth Magazine, which first published this article. These are times that none of us have seen before. Amid the radical uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, fear has reared its ugly head medically,... View Details
- 31 Aug 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
- July–August 2023
- Article
Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty
By: Ranjay Gulati
When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for... View Details
Gulati, Ranjay. "Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 36–42.
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- June 1992
- Article
The Strategic Management of Uncertainty
By: David J. Collis
Collis, David J. "The Strategic Management of Uncertainty." European Management Journal 10, no. 2 (June 1992): 125–135.
- 1 May 2011
- Conference Presentation
Leading Under Conditions of Uncertainty
By: Scott Snook
Keywords: Leadership
- 2024
- Conference Paper
Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several
high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting
works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as
proxy explanations for LLM... View Details
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Sree Harsha Tanneru, and Chirag Agarwal. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models." Paper presented at the Society for Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2024.
- February 1984 (Revised March 1984)
- Exercise
Exercises on Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty
By: David E. Bell
Bell, David E. "Exercises on Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Exercise 184-152, February 1984. (Revised March 1984.)
- March 2001
- Background Note
Real Options Valuation when Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Exist
This case describes how multiple sources of uncertainty can be incorporated into a real-options-based analysis. It works through an example of a two-stage problem where a company has both an option to explore and an option to develop oil reserves. View Details
Meulbroek, Lisa K. "Real Options Valuation when Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Exist." Harvard Business School Background Note 201-106, March 2001.
- fall 2007
- Article
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
- Other Unpublished Work
Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain
By: Lucy White and Hans-Joachim Voth
- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details
Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- 19 Nov 2004 - 22 Nov 2004
- Conference Presentation
Managing Innovation and Product Development...Under Uncertainty
By: Alan MacCormack
- 2021
- Working Paper
When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Working Paper, January 2021.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to... View Details
Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result
Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
- May 2011
- Article
Incentives and Problem Uncertainty in Innovation Contests: An Empirical Analysis
By: Kevin J. Boudreau, Nicola Lacetera and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests are a historically important and increasingly popular mechanism for encouraging innovation. A central concern in designing innovation contests is how many competitors to admit. Using a unique data set of 9,661 software contests, we provide evidence of two... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Innovation and Invention; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Value; Applications and Software; Competition; Performance; Theory; Practice
Boudreau, Kevin J., Nicola Lacetera, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Incentives and Problem Uncertainty in Innovation Contests: An Empirical Analysis." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 843–863.
- July 1975
- Article
An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty." Review of Economic Studies 42, no. 3 (July 1975): 375–393. (Chapter 17 in Continuous-Time Finance.)
- April 2006
- Background Note
Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World: Module 1: Innovation and Uncertainty
Describes the first module of a Harvard Business School 30-session elective course called Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World. The course helps students understand the challenges that uncertainty implies for innovation and how to overcome these challenges. The... View Details
Keywords: Design; Curriculum and Courses; Innovation and Management; Projects; Opportunities; Perspective
MacCormack, Alan D. "Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World: Module 1: Innovation and Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Background Note 606-125, April 2006.