Publications

2023
Article

Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in... View Details

Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning

2001
Working Paper

Using a Terrorist Attack to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime

By: Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky

March 2020
Article

Estimating the Value of Electricity Storage in PJM: Arbitrage and Some Welfare Effects

By: Ramteen Sioshansi, Paul Denholm, Thomas Jenkin and Jurgen Weiss

Significant increases in prices and price volatility of natural gas and electricity have raised interest in the potential economic opportunities for electricity storage. The paper analyzes the arbitrage value of a price-taking storage device in PJM during the six-year... View Details

Keywords: Energy Storage; Arbitrage; Energy; Energy Industry

Article

Beyond the Target Customer: Social Effects in CRM Campaigns

By: Eva Ascarza, Peter Ebbes, Oded Netzer and Matthew Danielson

Customer relationship management (CRM) campaigns have traditionally focused on maximizing the profitability of the targeted customers. The authors demonstrate that in business settings characterized by network externalities, a CRM campaign that is aimed at changing the... View Details

Keywords: Social Effects; Field Experiment; Mobile; Customer Relationship Management; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior

2017
Working Paper

Peer Effects on the United States Supreme Court

By: Matthew Lilley, Richard Holden and Michael Keane

Using data on essentially every US Supreme Court decision since 1946, we estimate a model of peer effects on the Court. We consider both the impact of justice ideology and justice votes on the votes of their peers. To identify these peer effects we use two instruments.... View Details

Keywords: Supreme Court; Peer Effects; Voting Behavior; Legal System; Courts and Trials; Voting; Behavior

SSRN

05 Mar 2012
News

It's Manufacturing's Turn for Special Treatment

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

22 Oct 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

Keywords: by Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

July–August 2024
Article

Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details

Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy

2024
Working Paper

Antibiotic Treatments for Ulcers--Eradicating H-Pylori Infections: Case Histories of Transformational Advances

By: Amar Bhidé, Srikant M. Datar and Katherine Stebbins

This case history describes how a chance discovery of bacteria that infect stomach linings completely changed how physicians treat ulcers. Specifically, we chronicle how: 1) two Australian physicians brought the bacterial infection to the world’s attention and... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Technology Adoption; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation and Invention; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

SSRN

2021
Working Paper

How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?

By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang

Difference-in-differences analysis with staggered treatment timing is frequently used to assess the impact of policy changes on corporate outcomes in academic research. However, recent advances in econometric theory show that such designs are likely to be biased in the... View Details

Keywords: Difference In Differences; Staggered Difference-in-differences Designs; Generalized Difference-in-differences; Dynamic Treatment Effects; Mathematical Methods

SSRN

22 Feb 2022
Research & Ideas

Lack of Female Scientists Means Fewer Medical Treatments for Women

Women are more likely to invent medical treatments for endometriosis, cervical cancer, and other female conditions, but the dearth of women scientists limits the potential for such life-saving innovations. Female research teams are 35... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

December 2012
Article

Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney

By: Rakesh Khurana, Raymond Fisman, Julia Galef and Yongxiang Wang

We estimate the market valuation of personal ties to Richard Cheney. Our proxies for personal ties are based on corporate board linkages that are prevalent in the network sociology literature. We consider a number of distinct political and personal events that either... View Details

Keywords: Event Analysis; Political Economy; Corruption; Networks; United States

2016
Chapter

Changing Behavior Beyond the Here and Now

By: Todd Rogers and Erin Frey

Keywords: Persistence; Treatment Effects; Interventions; Behavior

Article

Best Practices for Differentiated Products Demand Estimation with PyBLP

Differentiated products demand systems are a workhorse for understanding the price effects of mergers, the value of new goods, and the contribution of products to seller networks. Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) provide a flexible random coefficients logit model... View Details

March 2021
Article

On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito

We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate... View Details

Keywords: Credit Supply Shocks; Bank Lending Channel; Input-output Linkages; Output; Mechanisms; Trade Credits; Price Effects; Economics; Credit; System Shocks; Employment; Investment; Spain

2023
Article

Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.

By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods