Publications

2024
Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon

We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an... View Details

Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers

January 2022 (Revised February 2022)
Case

Introducing EVA at ISS: A Better Way to Evaluate CEO Performance and Compensation?

By: Jonas Heese, Charles C.Y. Wang and James Weber

In early 2019, Anthony Campagna, the global director of fundamental research at ISS EVA, a unit of the proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), was preparing to release ISS's analyses of public company performance and CEO compensation ahead of Say... View Details

Keywords: Jobs and Positions; Compensation and Benefits; Performance; Performance Productivity; Measurement and Metrics; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Business or Company Management; Performance Evaluation; Business and Shareholder Relations

Educators

Purchase

2022
Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

January 2022
Article

Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting

By: Erik Stafford

The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics... View Details

Keywords: Replicating Portfolio; Private Equity; Investment Portfolio

2021
Working Paper

Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated

By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang

The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main... View Details

Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing

December 2021
Article

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon

A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return

2021
Working Paper

Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang

We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details

Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making

January–February 2021
Article

Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim

We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy

2021
Working Paper

Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer

By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang

We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the... View Details

Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework

January 2021
Article

ETF Activity and Informational Efficiency of Underlying Securities

By: Lawrence Glosten, Suresh Nallareddy and Yuan Zou

This paper investigates the effect of exchange-traded funds’ (ETFs’) activity on the short-run informational efficiency of their underlying securities. We find that ETF activity increases short-run informational efficiency for stocks with weak information environments.... View Details

Keywords: ETF; Informational Efficiency; Co-movement; Systematic Earnings; Share Lending

2022
Working Paper

The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation

October 2020
Article

IQ from IP: Simplifying Search in Portfolio Choice

By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy

Using a novel database that tracks web traffic on the SEC’s EDGAR servers between 2004 and 2015, we show that mutual fund managers gather information on a very particular subset of firms and insiders, and their surveillance is very persistent over time. This tracking... View Details

Keywords: Tracked Trades; Return Predictability; Institutional Trading; Insider Trading; Institutional Investing; Information; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Management

August 2020
Article

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details

Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics

May–June 2020
Article

Interfirm Ties Between Ventures and Limited Partners of Venture Capital Funds: Performance Effects in Financial Markets

By: Umit Ozmel, M. Deniz Yavuz, Timothy E. Trombley and Ranjay Gulati

We argue that strong indirect ties are conducive to the transfer of private information, which provides an advantage in identifying profitable investment opportunities. In our context, a strong indirect tie is generated between an investor and a focal firm if the... View Details

Keywords: Interfirm Ties; Social Networks; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance

2020
Working Paper

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2020
Case

Highfields Capital and McDonald's

By: Mark Egan and Robin Greenwood

McDonald’s reported its fifth consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales growth in early 2015. Despite McDonald’s recent poor performance, Jonathon S. Jacobson, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Boston-based Highfields Capital Management, had initiated... View Details

Keywords: McDonald's; Stocks; Performance Improvement; Operations; Finance; Restructuring; Value Creation; Financial Services Industry

Educators

Purchase

2021
Working Paper

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang

We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment; United States