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- All HBS Web (171)
- Faculty Publications (73)
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- Research Summary
Hedging Asian Options: Closed-Form Solutions Using the Malliavin Calculus
Hedging path-dependent options requires non-standard tools because the price processes no longer have smooth stochastic differentials. I show how the Malliavin calculus can be used to overcome the specific difficulties introduced by the averaging behavior of... View Details
- 2009
- Simulation
Finance Simulation: Blackstone/Celanese: No. 3712.
By: Nabil N. El-Hage and Timothy A. Luehrman
The Finance Simulation: Blackstone/Celanese is based on the landmark acquisition of Celanese AG by the Blackstone Group in 2003. Students play the role of either Celanese or Blackstone and conduct due diligence, establish deal terms, respond to bids and counter-bids,... View Details
- 08 Jun 2011
- Lessons from the Classroom
Twenty-first Century Skill: Trading Carbon Credits
parts and permutations—really works. A carbon trading simulation designed by Harvard Business School professor Peter Coles gives students the opportunity to experience firsthand the pressure-packed decision-making process and uncertainty... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Efficient Discovery of Heterogeneous Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments via Anomalous Pattern Detection
By: Edward McFowland III, Sriram Somanchi and Daniel B. Neill
In the recent literature on estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, each proposed method makes its own set of restrictive assumptions about the intervention’s effects and which subpopulations to explicitly estimate. Moreover, the majority of the literature provides... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Program Evaluation; Algorithms; Distributional Average Treatment Effect; Treatment Effect Subset Scan; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
McFowland III, Edward, Sriram Somanchi, and Daniel B. Neill. "Efficient Discovery of Heterogeneous Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments via Anomalous Pattern Detection." Working Paper, 2023.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
- 28 Oct 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
Fairness, Efficiency, and Flexibility in Organ Allocation for Kidney Transplantation
- March 2022
- Article
Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
- January 2008
- Background Note
Index Options
By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the patterns in index option prices that are not predicted by the Black-Scholes model. In particular, the simulation focuses on two properties of options prices. First, at-the-money implied volatilities from index options... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Stock Options; Investment; Price; Profit; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods
Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Index Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-119, January 2008.
- October 1992
- Case
Charles River Jazz Festival
Charles River Jazz Festival must decide whether to press a compact disk (CD) of Friday's jazz performance for sale on Saturday and Sunday. The idea to press CDs is novel, so there is considerable uncertainty about how receptive customers will be. The festival must... View Details
Wu, George. "Charles River Jazz Festival." Harvard Business School Case 893-004, October 1992.
- January 2008
- Background Note
Equity Options
By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value
Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Equity Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-118, January 2008.
- April 1990
- Case
Clark Material Handling Group-Overseas: Brazilian Product Strategy (A&B) (Condensed)
By: Robert J. Dolan
Assumes some knowledge of conjoint analysis. Permits analysis of basic results and dynamic market simulations in one class session. View Details
Dolan, Robert J. "Clark Material Handling Group-Overseas: Brazilian Product Strategy (A&B) (Condensed)." Harvard Business School Case 590-081, April 1990.
- May 2017
- Article
Agent-based Modeling: A Guide for Social Psychologists
By: Joshua Conrad Jackson, David Rand, Kevin Lewis, Michael I. Norton and Kurt Gray
Agent-based modeling is a longstanding but underused method that allows researchers to simulate artificial worlds for hypothesis testing and theory building. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer unprecedented control and statistical power by allowing researchers to... View Details
Jackson, Joshua Conrad, David Rand, Kevin Lewis, Michael I. Norton, and Kurt Gray. "Agent-based Modeling: A Guide for Social Psychologists." Social Psychological & Personality Science 8, no. 4 (May 2017): 387–395.
- 18 Jun 2024
- Research & Ideas
Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.
pandemic- and Ukraine-related supplier disruptions. They followed the frequency and daily price changes on almost 585,000 products from 58 companies in Western Europe and the United States. Using that data, researchers simulated what... View Details
- 2019
- Article
Time Series Experiments and Causal Estimands: Exact Randomization Tests and Trading
By: Iavor I Bojinov and Neil Shephard
We define causal estimands for experiments on single time series, extending the potential outcome framework to dealing with temporal data. Our approach allows the estimation of a broad class of these estimands and exact randomization based p-values for testing causal... View Details
Bojinov, Iavor I., and Neil Shephard. "Time Series Experiments and Causal Estimands: Exact Randomization Tests and Trading." Journal of the American Statistical Association 114, no. 528 (2019): 1665–1682.
- November 2007
- Background Note
Asset Allocation I
By: Joshua D. Coval, Erik Stafford, Rodrigo Osmo, John Jernigan, Zack Page and Paulo Passoni
The goal of these simulations is to understand the mathematics of mean-variance optimization and the equilibrium pricing of risk if all investors use this rule with common information sets. Simulation A focuses on five to 10 years of monthly sector returns that are... View Details
- January 2009
- Journal Article
The Fiscal Impact of High-skilled Emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.
By: Mihir Desai, D. Kapur, J. McHale and K Rogers
Easing immigration restrictions for the highly skilled in developed countries portends a future of increased human capital outflows from developing countries. The myriad consequences of these developments for developing countries include the direct loss of the fiscal... View Details
Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Diasporas; Developing Countries and Economies; Taxation; Compensation and Benefits; Human Capital; Mathematical Methods; India; United States
Desai, Mihir, D. Kapur, J. McHale, and K Rogers. "The Fiscal Impact of High-skilled Emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S." Journal of Development Economics 88, no. 1 (January 2009).
- February 2010
- Supplement
Real Property Negotiation Game (CW): Excel Model
By: Arthur I. Segel, John Vogel and Justin Seth Ginsburgh
This Excel model is used to analyze the deals made in The Real Property Negotiation Game, which simulates the experience negotiating the sale, purchase, or financing of a property. View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty
By: J. Peter Scoblic
This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details
Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-093, March 2020.
- November 2022
- Article
Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings
By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the... View Details
Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Gini Coefficient; Income Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Social Issues; Health; Status and Position
Blesch, Kristin, Oliver P. Hauser, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1525–1536.
- 2011
- Working Paper
Fairness, Efficiency and Flexibility in Organ Allocation for Kidney Transplantation
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vivek F. Farias and Nikolaos Trichakis
We propose a scalable, data-driven method for designing national policies for the allocation of deceased donor kidneys to patients on a waiting list, in a fair and efficient way. We focus on policies that have the same form as the one currently used in the U.S. In... View Details
Keywords: Fairness; Policy; Health Disorders; Marketplace Matching; Performance Effectiveness; Rank and Position; Health Industry; United States
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Vivek F. Farias, and Nikolaos Trichakis. "Fairness, Efficiency and Flexibility in Organ Allocation for Kidney Transplantation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-025, October 2011.