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January–February 2023
Article

Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions

By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas

We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

January–February 2023
Article

Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry

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December 8, 2022
Article

What Companies Still Get Wrong about Layoffs

By: Sandra J. Sucher and Marilyn Morgan Westner

Research has long shown that layoffs have a detrimental effect on individuals and on corporate performance. The short-term cost savings provided by a layoff are often overshadowed by bad publicity, loss of knowledge, weakened engagement, higher voluntary turnover, and... View Details

Keywords: Resignation and Termination; Employment; Selection and Staffing; Performance

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2022
Working Paper

Stories, Statistics and Memory

By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann

For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking

December 2022
Article

When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly

By: Dominique Olié Lauga, Elie Ofek and Zsolt Katona

A prominent hallmark of competitive interaction is the desire to differentiate from rivals. In this article, the authors examine under what conditions firms will differentiate through product quality versus advertising intensity. Firms select quality in a first stage,... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Advertising; Product Positioning

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November 2022
Case

Hiring with the Community in Saint Paul

By: Mitchell B. Weiss and Sarah Mehta

This case reviews Saint Paul Mayor Melvin Carter’s decision to involve the community in the process of hiring his cabinet members. Rather than relying on an executive recruiting firm or choosing cabinet heads from his own network, Carter recruited 100 community members... View Details

Keywords: Community Engagement; Competency and Skills; Government and Politics; Human Resources; Government Administration; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Decision Making; Public Administration Industry; United States; Minnesota; Saint Paul

October 2022 (Revised September 2024)
Case

To SFO or Not To SFO: The Tolman Family Selects a Family Office Strategy

By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Victoria Alvarez-Arango, Grace Headinger, Mili Sanwalka and Anna Yuan

Peter Tolman, a first-generation investment professional, debated which family office strategy to adopt for managing his family’s assets. As the sole steward of his family’s wealth, he sought to conserve and grow his family’s wealth for him, his wife, and his two very... View Details

Keywords: Family Office; Investment Strategy; Family Business; Financial Strategy; Investment; Strategy; Diversification; Management; Asset Management; Wealth; Financial Services Industry; United States; Canada

October 2022 (Revised February 2024)
Case

Masdar City: Aiming for Sustainable and Profitable Real Estate

By: Boris Vallee and Fares Khrais

Masdar City broke ground in 2008 and was conceived by the Abu Dhabi government to be an international beacon of innovation in sustainable energy and real estate. It was also to be a profitable investment for the government. At first glance, the two goals pulled in... View Details

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

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June 2022
Teaching Plan

GreenLight Fund

By: Brian Trelstad and Mel Martin

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 320-053. As Tara Noland, the Executive Director (ED) of GreenLight Cincinnati, reflected on her first few years on the job. Noland had delivered on what she had been hired to do in the city: work with leading philanthropists and nonprofit... View Details

Keywords: Philanthropy; Venture Philanthropy; Replication; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Venture Capital; Social Issues; Decision Making; Cincinnati

June 2022
Article

Conservatism Gets Funded? A Field Experiment on the Role of Negative Information in Novel Project Evaluation

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Misha Teplitskiy, Gary Gray, Hardeep Ranu, Michael Menietti, Eva C. Guinan and Karim R. Lakhani

The evaluation and selection of novel projects lies at the heart of scientific and technological innovation, and yet there are persistent concerns about bias, such as conservatism. This paper investigates the role that the format of evaluation, specifically information... View Details

Keywords: Project Evaluation; Innovation; Knowledge Frontier; Information Sharing; Negativity Bias; Projects; Innovation and Invention; Information; Knowledge Sharing

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2022
Article

How to Choose a Default

By: John Beshears, Richard T. Mason and Shlomo Benartzi

We have developed a model for setting a default when a population is choosing among ordered choices—that is, ones listed in ascending or descending order. A company, for instance, might want to set a default contribution rate that will increase employees’ average... View Details

Keywords: Nudge; Choice Architecture; Behavioral Economics; Behavioral Science; Default; Savings; Decision Choices and Conditions; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives

2022
Working Paper

Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle

Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina

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March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

March 2022
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

December 2021
Case

Burning Glass Technologies: From Data to Product

By: Suraj Srinivasan and Amy Klopfenstein

In May 2021, Matt Sigelman, CEO of Burning Glass Technologies, a company that provided labor market analytics for a variety of markets, navigates his company’s transition from data company to product company. Burning Glass originated as a service that used artificial... View Details

November 2021
Article

Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018

By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons

U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws... View Details

Keywords: Voter ID Laws; Voter Turnout; Voting; Political Elections; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States

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October 2021
Case

Yildiz Holding's Corporate Strategy: Managing Diversification for Growth

By: Juan Alcácer and Esel Çekin

The case opens in May 2018 with Nurtaç Ziyal Afridi, chief strategy and growth officer of Yıldız Holding, a Turkish conglomerate, reflecting on the group’s diversification journey. In ten years, the group had achieved a remarkable growth through diversification: seven... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Diversification; Growth Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Global Strategy; Restructuring; Food and Beverage Industry; North America; United Kingdom; Turkey; Asia

October 1, 2021
Article

An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance.

By: B.M. Balk, M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps and J.L. Zofio

Cross-efficiency measurement is an extension of Data Envelopment Analysis that allows for tie-breaking ranking of the Decision Making Units (DMUs) using all the peer evaluations. In this article we examine the theory of cross-efficiency measurement by comparing a... View Details

Keywords: Efficiency Analysis; Performance Benchmarking; Warehousing; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods

September 2021 (Revised December 2023)
Case

On the Bubble: Startup Bootstrapping

By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang, Tom Quinn and Annelena Lobb

Bubble was a software company in the low-code/no-code market, making tools that allowed users without traditional programming backgrounds or technical skills to build software. The case covers cofounder Joshua Haas’s engineering background, as he experienced a high... View Details

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