Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(929)
- Faculty Publications (147)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details
- April 2023
- Article
Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?
By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber
Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details
- April 2023
- Article
The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences
By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to... View Details
- March 2023
- Case
Roche: ESG and Access to Healthcare
By: George Serafeim
In May 2022, Roche Group, one of the largest healthcare companies in the world, hosted its first ESG investor event focused exclusively on its efforts to impact access to healthcare. While Roche had recently set an ambitious goal to double the number of patients that... View Details
Keywords: ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Sustainable Finance; Growth Strategy And Execution; Sustainability Targets; Impact Evaluation; Healthcare Access; Healthcare Innovation; Healthcare Systems; Healthcare Operations; Finance; Strategy; Health Testing and Trials; Health Care and Treatment; Growth Management; Measurement and Metrics; Innovation Strategy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Health Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Switzerland; North America; Europe; Asia; Latin America; Africa
- January 2023 (Revised June 2024)
- Case
Adams + Beasley Associates
By: Dennis Campbell and Iuliana Mogosanu
This case illustrates how a strong culture, founder-led SME designed and used a unique performance metric—the job security index—to manage through periods of economic uncertainty. The case centers specifically on how the job security index was used in an interactive... View Details
- January 2023
- Case
Year Up: Measuring and Scaling Impact
Year Up, a non-profit that provides training and practical work experience to low-income young people, has for years prioritized impact measurement. By 2022, it had built a robust body of evidence demonstrating that its program yields higher earnings for participants.... View Details
- December 2022
- Technical Note
Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework
By: George Serafeim
The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing... View Details
Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Carbon Footprint; Risk Management; Competitive Dynamics; Business Analysis; Climate Change; Accounting; Finance; Valuation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Technological Innovation; Transition; Product Positioning; Renewable Energy; Analysis
- December 2022
- Article
Does Industry Employment of Active Regulators Weaken Oversight?
By: Jonas Heese
I study whether industry employment of active regulators weakens oversight. To examine this question, I exploit that the Financial Reporting Enforcement Panel (FREP), the German capital-market regulator responsible for enforcing public firms’ compliance with accounting... View Details
- 2022
- Article
Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable... View Details
- October 2022
- Case
Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA
By: George Serafeim, Maria Loumioti and Benjamin Maletta
As of August 2022, the Itau BBA had structured dozens of sustainability linked bonds, which made future interest payments a function of the borrower meeting a target for a sustainability metric, and had solidified its reputation as a pioneer of sustainable finance in... View Details
Keywords: Sustainable Finance; Corporate Social Responsibility; Environmental Sustainability; Growth Strategy; Debt Contracting; Performance Metrics; Risk Assessment; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Financial Instruments; Risk Management; Debt Securities; Measurement and Metrics; Banking Industry; Pulp and Paper Industry; Latin America
- September 2022
- Article
Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews
By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of... View Details
- March 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Innovation at Moog Inc.
By: Brian J. Hall, Ashley V. Whillans, Davis Heniford, Dominika Randle and Caroline Witten
This case focuses on the challenges of incentivizing innovation within Moog, an engineering company based in New York state that designs and builds guidance systems for space, air, and land-based travel. The case enables students to grapple with the challenges of using... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Innovation Lab; Innovation Management; Motivation; Incentives; Culture; Compensation; Compensation And Benefits; Scalability; Business Growth and Maturation; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Independent Innovation and Invention; Innovation and Management; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Organizational Culture; Performance Consistency; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity; Performance Evaluation; Creativity; Motivation and Incentives; Aerospace Industry; Transportation Industry; United States
- Article
Policies to Influence Perceptions about COVID-19 Risk: The Case of Maps
By: Claudia Engel, Jonathan Rodden and Marco Tabellini
Choropleth disease maps have become an important tool for informing the public about the risks posed by COVID-19. In a survey conducted in the U.S. state of Georgia in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view either of two maps. The first one reported... View Details
- 2022
- Chapter
Measuring Compliance Risk and the Emergence of Analytics
By: Eugene F. Soltes
Corporate compliance manages a diverse set of regulatory and reputational concerns ranging from fraud to privacy to discrimination. However, effectively managing such risks has often been hampered by a lack of adequate information about when, where, and why misconduct... View Details
- 2022
- Article
Missing Novelty in Drug Development
By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details
- Article
Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content
By: Celia Cintas, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III and Komminist Weldemariam
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently achieved unprecedented success in photo-realistic image synthesis from low-dimensional random noise. The ability to synthesize high-quality content at a large scale brings potential risks as the generated samples may... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on... View Details
- October 7, 2021
- Article
Carbon Might Be Your Company’s Biggest Financial Liability
By: Robert G. Eccles and John Mulliken
The price of carbon may be zero in many places today, but it’s unlikely to remain zero for long. That means that many companies have hidden liabilities on their books. To cover their carbon short position, executives can take several steps: Measure the position in... View Details
- October 2021
- Article
Directors' Perceptions of Board Effectiveness and Internal Operations
By: J. Yo-Jud Cheng, Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan
We contribute to the growing literature on the effectiveness of corporate boards by examining the effect of two insights that have been largely unexplored in prior studies that use public data. First, since boards’ responsibilities are wide-ranging, more holistic... View Details