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  • 23 Oct 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

forecast less extreme)? To answer these questions, we introduce a class of optimal aggregators. These aggregators are Bayesian ensembles because they follow from a Bayesian model of the underlying information experts have. Each ensemble... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • January 2011
  • Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John
Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details
Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • October 2024
  • Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
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  • TeachingInterests

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

By: David E. Bell

Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

  • Article

Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse

By: Sohini Upadhyay, Shalmali Joshi and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision making (e.g., loan approvals), there has been growing interest in post-hoc techniques which provide recourse to affected individuals. These techniques generate recourses under the assumption... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Recourse; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 2011
  • Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser
One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details
Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking
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  • 12 Aug 2014
  • First Look

First Look: August 12

arises from behavioral biases and misperceptions of probability distributions. Finally, nonpecuniary taste-based factors may be important in motivating both the decisions to enter into and to persist in entrepreneurship. Publisher's link:... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

price increases do not predict lower returns going forward, these increases do predict substantial heightened probability of a crash. Simple attributes related to the price run up can help predict both the crash View Details
  • June 2009
  • Article

Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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  • 26 Apr 2016
  • First Look

April 26

intermediaries—called outsourcing agencies—have emerged in these markets. This paper shows that agencies signal to employers that inexperienced workers are high quality. Workers affiliated with an agency have substantially higher job-finding View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Marketing - Faculty & Research

this finding at two retailers. We propose an explanation for the existence of canary categories and then develop a stylized model that illustrates four contributing factors: the probability a customer finds their favorite brand,... View Details
  • 2011
  • Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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  • 05 Feb 2013
  • First Look

First Look: Feb. 5

earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with central boards also experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Human Behavior & Decision-Making - Faculty & Research

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro 2024 | Working Paper | Faculty Research Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US... View Details
  • 01 Dec 2023
  • News

Thinking Ahead

As we wind down 2023, there’s talk everywhere of generative AI and how it will fundamentally alter the world as we know it; but how does that translate for your corner of the business world? Is TikTok something you need to take seriously? (Is it time to dance?) We... View Details
Keywords: Julia Hanna; Illustrations by Chris Gash; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information
  • 21 Oct 2015
  • Research & Ideas

How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good

Operations Management unit at Harvard Business School. “They didn’t know it would turn out to be a multibillion dollar industry.” “By definition, when an investor makes an investment, it changes the probability of success” In a new... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Accommodations; Financial Services
  • 25 Jan 2010
  • Research & Ideas

A Macroeconomic View of the Current Economy

going to depreciate tomorrow or next week or even next month. But over time, you expect it to depreciate. So if you're a business manager, you probably want to be fairly well hedged against this possibility, either by making use of... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
  • 04 May 2015
  • Research & Ideas

Need to Solve a Problem? Take a Break From Collaborating

Chatter, Microsoft's Yammer, and Jive Software's suite of namesake products. The global enterprise social software market is forecast to grow to $8.14 billion in 2019, according to MarketWatch, from $4.77 billion in 2014. “When it comes... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Video Game; Web Services
  • Web

Research - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

fintech platform, the authors find that, compared to actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model, the counterfactual outcomes based on a “traditional model” used for regulatory reporting purposes would result in a 60% higher View Details
  • 03 Oct 2005
  • Research & Ideas

The Box Office Power of Stars

We all understand at some level that stars in the worlds of film, sports, and even business create results. If you want big box office for Pirates of the Caribbean, it probably pays to sign Johnny Depp to play the lead. But Harvard... View Details
Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Entertainment & Recreation; Motion Pictures & Video