Publications

18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

environments.” If central banks had used economic models that account for variations in the speed of firm’s pricing decisions rather than their traditional forecasting tools, policymakers might have detected... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

2001
Working Paper

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2013
Article

The Price of Diversifiable Risk in Venture Capital and Private Equity

By: Michael Ewens, Charles Jones and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

This paper explores the private equity and venture capital (VC) markets and extends the standard principal-agent problem between the investors and venture capitalist to show how it alters the interaction between the venture capitalist and the entrepreneur. Since the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Contracts; Investment; Competition; Agency Theory; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory; Diversification

August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

2025
Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin

We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets

SSRN

09 Dec 2015
Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

predictive and prescriptive analytics can be combined to develop a tactical decision-making tool that makes a big impact on the bottom line. For details about the research and the successful machine learning tool, see the paper “Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories

Research Summary

Overview

Professor MacKay combines theory and measurement to deliver new insights about price competition and consumer preferences. In current and published papers, his research addresses how strategic pricing decisions may be influenced by algorithms, long-term contracts,... View Details

Keywords: Price Effects; Competition Policy; Algorithms; Online Competition; Dynamic Pricing; Beliefs; Preferences; Preference Heterogeneity; Preference Measurement; Competition; Microeconomics; Strategy; Integration; Cooperation

July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
Case

Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)

By: David Collis and Haisley Wert

In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Renewables; Forecasting Demand; Strategy; Energy; Climate Change; Resource Allocation; Corporate Strategy; Investment Activism; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Energy Industry

March 2017 (Revised March 2022)
Case

Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing

By: Kris Ferreira and Karim R. Lakhani

Kate Wilson, retail analytics manager at Flashion, a fashion flash-sale site, is tasked with developing analytics to optimize pricing for first-exposure products on the site. Many in the industry have relied on years of experience and intuition to determine pricing—can... View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Pricing; Data; Service Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; United States

June 2023 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Optimalen Capital

By: Malcolm Baker, Elisabeth Kempf and Jonathan Wallen

A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker... View Details

Keywords: Investments; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Investment Portfolio; Asset Pricing

May 2018
Article

Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes; Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction

winter 1996
Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2001
Article

The Portfolio Flows of International Investors

By: K. A. Froot, P. O'Connell and M. Seasholes

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry

December 2002
Article

The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows

By: K. A. Froot and J. Donohue

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Financial Services Industry

September 2004
Article

Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows

By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry

November 2016 (Revised April 2018)
Case

reMarkable: e-Writing the Future

By: Elie Ofek and Curtis Hsu

Magnus Wanberg is the creator of reMarkable, a breakthrough e-writer device set apart from similar products on the market by having solved the frustrating “slow ink” problem typically experienced on pen-based electronic devices, thus providing a “pen and paper” like... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Marketing; Innovation Management; Go To Market Strategy; Marketing Plan; Target Market; Digital Devices; Consumer Electronics; Forecasting; Information Technology; Marketing Strategy; Innovation and Management; Marketing Channels; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Product Development; Electronics Industry

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

2003
Article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Disclosure; Price; Stocks; Investment Return

2023
Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction