Publications

March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
Case

Hayman Capital Management

By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville

In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the... View Details

Keywords: Investment Management; Speculative Bubbles; Japan; Government Policy; Financial Management; Price Bubble; Credit; Financial Strategy; Behavioral Finance; Government and Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Services Industry; Japan

December 1991
Article

Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices

By: Kenneth A. Froot and M. Obstfeld

Keywords: Rational Expectations; Equities; Fundamentals; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Stocks; Information; Asset Pricing

Find at Harvard

November 2016 (Revised February 2017)
Case

Square, Inc. IPO

By: Ramana Nanda, Robert White and Lauren G. Pickle

In November 2015, Square, Inc. launched its initial public offering (IPO). The IPO had an offering price of $9 per share, lower than the $11 to $13 estimate that had been outlined in the preliminary prospectus and 42% below the $15.50 share price in its most recent... View Details

Keywords: Business Finance; Initial Public Offering; Equity; Capital Markets; Public Equity; Stocks; Venture Capital; Financial Services Industry; United States

03 Jul 2008
News

A Better Solution for China

2024
Working Paper

Ponzi Funds

By: Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina

Many active funds hold concentrated portfolios. Flow-driven trading causes price pressure, which pushes up the funds’ existing positions resulting in realized returns. We decompose fund returns into a price pressure (self-inflated) and a fundamental component and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Price Bubble; Financial Reporting; Financial Liquidity

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27 Sep 2017
News

Will a Corporate Tax Holiday Give Workers Anything to Cheer?

Robin Greenwood

Robin is the George Gund Professor of Finance and Banking at Harvard Business School. He serves as the Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Development and Research. He is past faculty director of the Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project, chair of... View Details

Keywords: banking; financial services

09 Jan 2006
Research & Ideas

Rebuilding Commercial Real Estate

generating fewer new jobs than in previous recoveries, no one sees much chance of a speculative building bubble for office space. "New construction just hasn't gone crazy like it did in the '80s," says Fidelity's Sandwen.... View Details

Keywords: by Roger Thompson; Construction; Real Estate

January 2002 (Revised October 2007)
Case

Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., 2001

By: Joshua Musher and Andre F. Perold

Asset manager GMO underperforms the market during the 1996-2000 stock market bubble because of the focus on absolute risk. After suffering significant client withdrawals, performance again shines when the bubble collapses. Did they win the battle only to lose the war?... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Asset Management; Stocks; Investment; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty

January 2003 (Revised September 2007)
Background Note

A Note on Racing to Acquire Customers

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Examines factors that motivate a firm's race to acquire customers in newly emerging markets and explores conditions under which racing strategies are likely to yield attractive returns. Provides a definition of racing behavior, introduces the notion of an optimal level... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Price Bubble; Network Effects; Emerging Markets; Market Entry and Exit; Behavior; Competition

20 Jun 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 20

“waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles. We analyze the patterns of cash-flow news that generate the largest bubbles, the reasons why... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

06 Nov 2008
Op-Ed

Selling Out The American Dream

leveraging of assets, on irresponsible banks and mortgage brokers who fabricated applications for no downpayment home loans knowing that the risks could be readily laid off on unsuspecting third parties. But underpinning the collapse of the housing View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch

July 2002 (Revised October 2002)
Case

Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A)

By: Thomas J. DeLong and Vineeta Vijayaraghavan

The Bradley Marquez advertising agency had created a successful niche delivering ethnic markets to their clients, corporate giants like Compaq, Sprint, Texaco, and British Airways. The company was operating in aggressive growth mode when, in 2000, the stock market... View Details

Keywords: Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financial Crisis; Price Bubble; Human Resources; Employees; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Advertising Industry

May 2011
Background Note

Scale Effects, Network Effects, and Investment Strategy

By: Willy Shih

This technical note discusses scale economies, and direct and indirect network effects in the context of building better business models. Some of the great business disasters of the dot.com bubble were companies that scaled their infrastructure without working through... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Investment; Price; Crisis Management; Network Effects; Multi-Sided Platforms; Strategy

January 2008 (Revised January 2010)
Case

iBasis, Inc.

By: Andrew Wasynczuk, Katherine Dowd and Nicole Kravec

iBasis examines the development of a long-term relationship between equipment manufacturer Cisco and start-up iBasis, a voice-over-internet wholesaler. Questions arise for iBasis founders as to how best to build a beneficial relationship with the much larger partner.... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Intellectual Property; Value Creation; Equality and Inequality; Partners and Partnerships; Business Growth and Maturation; Price Bubble; Trust; Business Startups; Manufacturing Industry; Communications Industry; Web Services Industry

22 Feb 2022
Research & Ideas

When Will the Hot Housing Market Finally Start to Cool?

sparked by urbanites fleeing the pandemic, but most of them have returned to their original cities and yet housing prices are still climbing across the country. What’s going on? Are we in another housing View Details

Keywords: by Christine Pazzanese, Harvard Gazette

July 1989 (Revised May 2004)
Case

Colonial Homes

By: David E. Bell

Colonial Homes supplies a complete raw materials package to build entire homes. The price of the package is guaranteed at the signing of the sales contract, while delivery (and payment) are not effected for up to six months. In an effort to reduce its exposure to... View Details

Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Contracts; Price; Price Bubble; Fluctuation; Monopoly; Problems and Challenges; Sales; Accommodations Industry; Real Estate Industry

July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
Supplement

Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen

After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices... View Details

Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Capital Markets; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Banks and Banking; Price; Price Bubble; Contracts; Crisis Management; Market Transactions; Valuation; Shipping Industry