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    • All HBS Web  (324)
      • Faculty Publications  (48)

      Preference PredictionRemove Preference Prediction →

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      • Article

      The Not-So-Common-Wealth of Australia: Evidence for a Cross-Cultural Desire for a More Equal Distribution of Wealth.

      By: Michael I. Norton, David T. Neal, Cassandra L. Govan, Dan Ariely and Elise Holland
      Recent evidence suggests that Americans underestimate wealth inequality in the United States and favor a more equal wealth distribution (Norton & Ariely, 2011). Does this pattern reflect ideological dynamics unique to the United States, or is the phenomenon evident in... View Details
      Keywords: Wealth; Equality and Inequality; Australia; United States
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      Norton, Michael I., David T. Neal, Cassandra L. Govan, Dan Ariely, and Elise Holland. "The Not-So-Common-Wealth of Australia: Evidence for a Cross-Cultural Desire for a More Equal Distribution of Wealth." Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy 14, no. 1 (December 2014): 339–351.
      • Article

      The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential

      By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton
      Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
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      Kupor, Daniella, Zakary L. Tormala, and Michael I. Norton. "The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 55 (November 2014): 210–216.
      • October 2014
      • Teaching Note

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)

      By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth Meyer
      This is the teaching note to HBS case 214-085: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir A., and Elizabeth Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 215-022, October 2014.
      • October 2014
      • Supplement

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement

      By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      This is the Excel Supplement to Teaching Note 215-022: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B). View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 215-703, October 2014.
      • October 2014
      • Supplement

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement

      By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      This is the PowerPoint supplement to the teaching note: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B), number 215-022. View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement." Harvard Business School PowerPoint Supplement 215-023, October 2014.
      • June 2014
      • Case

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

      By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir A., and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)." Harvard Business School Case 214-085, June 2014.
      • June 2014
      • Supplement

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement

      By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      This is the student spreadsheet supplement to case 214-085, Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 214-714, June 2014.
      • June 2014
      • Supplement

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)

      By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call. View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 214-094, June 2014.
      • 2014
      • Article

      Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
      We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs.... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Investment Return
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 663–713. (Also earlier version NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13806, February 2008.)
      • 2013
      • Chapter

      Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We survey the theory and evidence of behavioral corporate finance, which generally takes one of two approaches. The market timing and catering approach views managerial financing and investment decisions as rational managerial responses to securities mispricing. The... View Details
      Keywords: Managerial Roles; Theory; Corporate Finance; Financial Management; Investment; Market Timing; Behavioral Finance; Prejudice and Bias; Economics; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey." In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Volume 2A: Corporate Finance, edited by George M. Constantinides, Milton Harris, and Rene M. Stulz, 357–424. Handbooks in Economics. New York: Elsevier, 2013.
      • November 2012
      • Article

      An Age Penalty in Racial Preferences

      By: Deborah A. Small, Devin G. Pope and Michael I. Norton
      We document an age penalty in racial discrimination: charitable behavior toward African American children decreases-and negative stereotypical inferences increase-with the age of those children. Using data from an online charity that solicits donations for school... View Details
      Keywords: Stereotyping; Charitable Giving; Prejudice; Prosocial Behavior; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Age; Race; Prejudice and Bias
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      Small, Deborah A., Devin G. Pope, and Michael I. Norton. "An Age Penalty in Racial Preferences." Social Psychological & Personality Science 3, no. 6 (November 2012): 730–737.
      • Article

      Employee Selection as a Control System

      By: Dennis Campbell
      Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study... View Details
      Keywords: Management Systems; Governance Controls; Employees; Selection and Staffing; Motivation and Incentives; Decision Making; Business Model
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      Campbell, Dennis. "Employee Selection as a Control System." Journal of Accounting Research 50, no. 4 (September 2012): 931–966.
      • February 2012
      • Article

      Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation

      By: Kathleen L. McGinn, Katherine L. Milkman and Markus Noth
      We study the framing effects of communication on payoffs in multiparty bargaining. Communication has been shown to be more truthful and revealing than predicted in equilibrium. Because talk is preference revealing, it may effectively frame bargaining around a logic of... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Negotiation Process; Fairness; Negotiation Types; Interpersonal Communication; Game Theory; Cooperation
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      McGinn, Kathleen L., Katherine L. Milkman, and Markus Noth. "Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation." Journal of Economic Psychology 33, no. 1 (February 2012).
      • Article

      Market Heterogeneity and Local Capacity Decisions in Services

      By: Dennis Campbell and Frances X. Frei
      We empirically document factors that influence how local operating managers use discretion to balance the tradeoff between service capacity costs and customer sensitivity to service time. Our findings, using data from one of the largest financial services providers in... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Cost; Standards; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Performance Capacity; Performance Productivity; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Campbell, Dennis, and Frances X. Frei. "Market Heterogeneity and Local Capacity Decisions in Services." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 13, no. 1 (Winter 2011): 2–19. (Lead Article.)
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

      By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
      This paper studies the cost of capital for alternative investments. We document that the risk profile of the aggregate hedge fund universe can be accurately matched by a simple index put option writing strategy that offers monthly liquidity and complete transparency... View Details
      Keywords: Cost of Capital; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-013, September 2011. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19643, November 2013.)
      • June 2011
      • Article

      Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor

      By: Christina Fong and Felix Oberholzer-Gee
      It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable giving because they know little about the persons who receive their help. This concern is particularly acute when making contributions to organizations that serve heterogeneous populations. While we... View Details
      Keywords: Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Policy; Information; Knowledge Acquisition; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias; Poverty; Welfare
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      Fong, Christina, and Felix Oberholzer-Gee. "Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor." Special Issue on Charitable Giving and Fundraising Journal of Public Economics 95, nos. 5-6 (June 2011): 436–444.
      • 2011
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

      By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
      Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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      Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
      • 2011
      • Article

      The Consumer Psychology of Mail-in Rebates

      By: John T. Gourville and Dilip Soman
      Consumers who buy a product intending to use an accompanying mail-in rebate often do not redeem the rebate. To explain this behavior, we argue that consumers use an anchoring and adjustment approach to predicting the likelihood of redeeming a rebate. In keeping with... View Details
      Keywords: Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; Sales; Motivation and Incentives
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      Gourville, John T., and Dilip Soman. "The Consumer Psychology of Mail-in Rebates." Journal of Product & Brand Management 20, no. 2 (2011).
      • Article

      The Social Utility of Feature Creep

      By: Debora V. Thompson and Michael I. Norton
      Previous research shows that consumers frequently choose products with too many features that they later find difficult to use. Our research shows that this seemingly suboptimal behavior may in fact confer benefits when factoring in the social context of consumption.... View Details
      Keywords: Impression Management; Social Influence; Conspicuous Consumption; Signaling; Product Features; Consumer Behavior; Information Technology; Experience and Expertise; Status and Position
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      Thompson, Debora V., and Michael I. Norton. "The Social Utility of Feature Creep." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 48, no. 3 (June 2011): 555–565.
      • October 2010
      • Article

      Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution

      By: Deepak Malhotra and Jeremy Ginges
      The paper extends research on fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced agreements are seen as more likely to be... View Details
      Keywords: Fixed Pie; Balance; Peace; Negotiation; Agreements and Arrangements; Conflict and Resolution; Government and Politics; Balance and Stability; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Israel; Palestinian state
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      Malhotra, Deepak, and Jeremy Ginges. "Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution." Judgment and Decision Making 5, no. 6 (October 2010): 420–427.
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