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- All HBS Web (124)
- Faculty Publications (50)
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- All HBS Web (124)
- Faculty Publications (50)
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- Article
Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates
By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Finance Without Exotic Risk
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, and Andrei Shleifer. "Finance Without Exotic Risk." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33004, September 2024.
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in
equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings
forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors
fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views
and to issue... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details
Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I... View Details
Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Soft Rating Adjustments; Default; Credit; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Institutions; Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- April 2023
- Article
The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences
By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to... View Details
Keywords: Survey Validation; Experiment; Preference Measurement; Surveys; Economics; Behavior; Measurement and Metrics
Falk, Armin, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman, and Uwe Sunde. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences." Management Science 69, no. 4 (April 2023): 1935–1950.
- Article
Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence
By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan
To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details
Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew, David Robinson, and S. Viswanathan. "Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence." Journal of Financial Economics 77, no. 3 (September 2005): 561–603.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- 25 Jul 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?
Keywords: by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger
- Research Summary
The Role of Financial and Information Intermediaries in the Capital Markets
Hutton's research investigates the role of financial analysts and short sellers in the pricing of equity securities. Recently, Hutton examines (with Patricia Dechow and Richard Sloan) the role of sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts in the pricing of common equity... View Details
- 24 Nov 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
Keywords: by Richard S. Ruback
- 2025
- Working Paper
Trade Within Multinational Boundaries
By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Fariha Kamal and Zachary Kroff
We leverage newly linked data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to study transactions within U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs). We show that using administrative data on intrafirm trade allows us to correct for measurement error... View Details
Keywords: Multinational Enterprise; Input-output Linkages; Multinational Firms and Management; Trade; Supply Chain
Alfaro, Laura, Paola Conconi, Fariha Kamal, and Zachary Kroff. "Trade Within Multinational Boundaries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-058, May 2025.
- July 2015
- Article
Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk
By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith
We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details
Keywords: Management Teams; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Crime and Corruption; Governance Compliance; Financial Reporting; Organizational Culture
Davidson, Robert, Aiyesha Dey, and Abbie Smith. "Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk." Journal of Financial Economics 117, no. 1 (July 2015): 5–28.
- Research Summary
Overview
Professor Ferreira's research primarily focuses on how retailers can use algorithms to make better revenue management decisions, including pricing, product display, and assortment planning. In the retail industry, anticipating consumer demand is arguably one of the... View Details
- 2010
- Chapter
Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents
By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
The world has seen a number of recent events in which major systems came to a standstill, not from one cause alone but from the interaction of a combination of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system... View Details
Leonard, Dutch, and Arnold M. Howitt. "Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents." In Integrative Risk Management: Advanced Disaster Recovery, edited by Simon Woodward. Zurich, Switzerland: Swiss Re, Centre for Global Dialogue, 2010.
- February 1994 (Revised May 1995)
- Case
Metallgesellschaft AG
By: David F. Hawkins and Guy J. Weyns
Metallgesellschaft AG is a commodity and engineering conglomerate based in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Metallgesellschaft Corp., a New York based subsidiary of the group, has made oil trading and hedging errors that could drive the group into insolvency. The impact of... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Audits; Business Conglomerates; Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Non-Renewable Energy
Hawkins, David F., and Guy J. Weyns. "Metallgesellschaft AG." Harvard Business School Case 194-097, February 1994. (Revised May 1995.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Complexity of Economic Decisions
By: Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber
We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task’s complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity... View Details
Gabaix, Xavier, and Thomas Graeber. "The Complexity of Economic Decisions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-049, February 2024.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)