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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (124)
    • Faculty Publications  (29)

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    • All HBS Web  (124)
      • Faculty Publications  (29)

      Prediction ErrorRemove Prediction Error →

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      • Article

      Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

      By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
      We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
      Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
      • August 2016
      • Article

      The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

      By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
      Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details
      Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Leslie K. John. "The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 4 (August 2016): 597–607.
      • July 2015
      • Article

      Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk

      By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith
      We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details
      Keywords: Management Teams; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Crime and Corruption; Governance Compliance; Financial Reporting; Organizational Culture
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      Davidson, Robert, Aiyesha Dey, and Abbie Smith. "Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk." Journal of Financial Economics 117, no. 1 (July 2015): 5–28.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

      By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
      Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details
      Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-020, September 2013. (Revised December 2019. Forthcoming at Marketing Science.)
      • 2013
      • Article

      Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance

      By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with... View Details
      Keywords: Networks; Governing and Advisory Boards; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance
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      Larcker, David F., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 55, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2013): 225–250.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      The Importance of Work Context in Organizational Learning from Error

      By: Lucy H. MacPhail and Amy C. Edmondson
      This paper examines the implications of work context for learning from errors in organizations. Prior research has shown that attitudes and behaviors related to error vary between groups within organizations but has not investigated or theorized the ways in which... View Details
      Keywords: Judgments; Learning; Business Processes; Organizational Culture; Failure; Performance Improvement; Opportunities; Complexity
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      MacPhail, Lucy H., and Amy C. Edmondson. "The Importance of Work Context in Organizational Learning from Error." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-074, January 2011.
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents

      By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
      The world has seen a number of recent events in which major systems came to a standstill, not from one cause alone but from the interaction of a combination of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Globalization; Risk Management; Boundaries; System Shocks
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      Leonard, Dutch, and Arnold M. Howitt. "Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents." In Integrative Risk Management: Advanced Disaster Recovery, edited by Simon Woodward. Zurich, Switzerland: Swiss Re, Centre for Global Dialogue, 2010.
      • Research Summary

      Overview

      By: Ethan C. Rouen
      Relying on empirical archival methodologies—as well as techniques in data science—to develop and structure new sources of data by which to approach questions of looming disclosure changes, Professor Rouen has focused on one of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s... View Details
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      Overview

      By: Kris Johnson Ferreira
      Professor Ferreira's research primarily focuses on how retailers can use algorithms to make better revenue management decisions, including pricing, product display, and assortment planning. In the retail industry, anticipating consumer demand is arguably one of the... View Details
      Keywords: E-commerce; Analytics; Revenue Management; Pricing; Assortment Planning; Field Experiments; Operations; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Retail Industry
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