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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,942)
- News (471)
- Research (2,186)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,411)
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- February 2021
- Tutorial
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details
- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- 1996
- Chapter
The Power of Predictability
By: H. H. Stevenson and Mihnea Moldoveanu
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
- November 2011
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2011 version includes: sliced peanut butter, artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks, interactive tombstones, and stride-changing running shoes. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption.... View Details
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)." Harvard Business School Case 512-047, November 2011.
- April 2011
- Teaching Note
Prediction Markets at Google (TN)
Teaching Note for 607088. View Details
- Article
Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction
By: A.V. Whillans, Jessie Pow and Joe J. Gladstone
Seven studies examine the association between time-saving purchases (e.g., housecleaning and meal delivery services) and relationship satisfaction. Study 1 uses an eleven-year longitudinal panel survey to show that increases in time-saving purchases predict long-term... View Details
Whillans, A.V., Jessie Pow, and Joe J. Gladstone. "Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (in press).
- March 2022 (Revised January 2025)
- Technical Note
Prediction & Machine Learning
This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning
Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Prediction & Machine Learning." Harvard Business School Technical Note 622-101, March 2022. (Revised January 2025.)
- April 2008
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
- Article
Human Decisions and Machine Predictions
By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions." Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 1 (February 2018): 237–293.
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Case
Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)." Harvard Business School Case 119-025, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- July–August 1995
- Article
The Power of Predictability
By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Stevenson, H. H., and M. C. Moldoveanu. "The Power of Predictability." Harvard Business Review 73, no. 4 (July–August 1995).
- August 2014
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)
By: John Gourville
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket.
These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
- 06 May 2015
- What Do You Think?
Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?
Summing Up Personal Predictive Analytics: Should We Be Careful What We Wish For? The world of continuous monitoring of numerous sensors for machines and humans, limitless information storage capacity, and big data combined with rapid... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 20 Jun 2016
- Research & Ideas
When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong
about presuming preferences. When predicting other people’s tastes, we tend to erroneously assume that liking one thing precludes enjoying another, dissimilar option, according to a recent set of studies by researchers at Harvard Business... View Details
- Editorial
The Power of Precise Predictions
By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic
Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics
Tetlock, Philip E., and J. Peter Scoblic. "The Power of Precise Predictions." New York Times (October 4, 2015), SR10.
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
- 24 Sep 2020
- Research & Ideas
Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought
research by Harvard Business School Professors Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson begs to differ. Financial crises, even ones as calamitous as the 2007-2008 banking meltdown, are surprisingly predictable to those who know the warning... View Details
- January 2014
- Article
Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty
By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer
Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details
Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking
Zimerman, Liora, Shaul Shalvi, and Yoella Bereby-Meyer. "Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty." Judgment and Decision Making 9, no. 1 (January 2014): 58–64.
- 2009
- Case
What People Want (and How to Predict It)
By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details
Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "What People Want (and How to Predict It)." 2009.