Publications

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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April 2017 (Revised March 2024)
Case

Making Target the Target: Boycotts and Corporate Political Activity

By: Nien-hê Hsieh and Victor Wu

Through the challenges facing Target, the case examines ways in which corporations can become involved in political and legislative debates and processes, ranging from campaign contributions to lobbying to political activism. In 2016, Target CEO Brian Cornell must... View Details

Educators

2023
Working Paper

Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic

By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl

While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how leader... View Details

2023
Working Paper

Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy

By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries

Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to geographies of discontent. We argue that public service deprivation, defined as reduced access to public services at the local level, plays an important role in explaining these patterns. By exploiting an... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Electoral Behavior; Political Affiliation; Political Culture; Public Service; Political Elections; Policy; Government and Politics; Surveys; Geographic Location; Immigration; Europe; Italy

2021
Working Paper

The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement

By: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li

This paper documents novel evidence on the influence of political incentives in the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections, we find that the probability of a Foreign... View Details

Keywords: Bribery; Regulatory Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Governance Controls; Political Elections

26 Sep 2013
Research & Ideas

Behind India’s Economic and Political Woes

has real microeconomic consequences causing consternation for companies, small businesses, and entrepreneurs. Q:Do you think the Indian political climate has contributed to the current economic situation? A: Absolutely. India has, sadly,... View Details

Keywords: by Zeenat Potia

12 Jan 2015
Research & Ideas

Regulators Ease Up on Companies Generating Political Benefits

We all know how political influence works: company X donates money to politician Y, and then that pol leans on regulator Z to go easy on his new best friend. In economic parlance, that circle of back-scratching is known as... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

June 2017
Article

The Political Economy of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Local Governments

By: Christophe Pérignon and Boris Vallée

We examine the toxic loans sold by investment banks to local governments. Using proprietary data, we show that politicians strategically use these products to increase chances of being re-elected. Consistent with greater incentives to hide the cost of debt, toxic loans... View Details

Keywords: Financial Innovation; Political Elections; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention

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28 Sep 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Rankings Matter Even When They Shouldn't: Bandwagon Effects in Two-Round Elections

Keywords: by Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud

07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

of the paper’s authors. The main reason is that party and candidate positions on key issues subtly or not-so-subtly change from election to election in reaction to shifts in voter sentiment, undercutting the... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

13 Aug 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Selling to a Moving Target: Dynamic Marketing Effects in U.S. Presidential Elections

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung & Lingling Zhang

June 2017 (Revised August 2018)
Supplement

Making Target the Target: Boycotts and Corporate Political Activity (B)

By: Nien-hê Hsieh and Victor Wu

Supplements the (A) Case. View Details

October 2019
Article

Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending

By: Olivia S. Kim

This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Political Elections; Financing and Loans; Developing Countries and Economies