Plausibility - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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January–February 2012
Article

A Simple Model Relating Accruals to Risk, and its Implications for the Accrual Anomaly

By: Mozaffar N. Khan

This paper models systematic risk as a function of mean-reverting accruals. When the true abnormal returns are zero, but the true betas are empirically unobserved, the model predicts the anomalous pattern of empirical results on the accrual anomaly: (i) CAPM abnormal... View Details

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How Is Foreign Aid Spent?

We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on... View Details

February 2010
Article

The Optimal Taxation of Height: A Case Study of Utilitarian Income Redistribution

By: N. Gregory Mankiw and Matthew C. Weinzierl

Should the income tax include a credit for short taxpayers and a surcharge for tall ones? The standard Utilitarian framework for tax analysis answers this question in the affirmative. Moreover, a plausible parameterization using data on height and wages implies a... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Wages; Personal Characteristics

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December 2009
Article

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management

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2025
Working Paper

Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit

By: Sergey Chernenko, Robert Ialenti and David Scharfstein

We show that business development companies (BDCs)—closed-end funds that provide a significant share of nonbank loans to middle market firms—are very well capitalized according to bank capital frameworks. They have median risk-based capital ratios of about 36%... View Details

Keywords: Financing and Loans; Capital; Credit; Financial Institutions

Forthcoming
Article

Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao

This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit an episode of plausibly random debt discharge due to the loss of paperwork for thousands of borrowers to examine the effects of private student debt relief... View Details

Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Personal Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Outcome or Result

September 2018
Article

Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao

We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Asset Pricing

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2013
Chapter

Assessing Potential Carbon Revenues from Reduced Forest Cover Loss in Liberia

By: Jessica Donovan, Keith Lawrence, Christopher Neyor, Eduard Niesten and Eric Werker

We conducted an analysis that explores the merits of a low-carbon development strategy for Liberia. This chapter describes both our cost-benefit analysis initiative and a plausible policy process for Liberia. We proposed a simple approach that models the costs and... View Details

Keywords: Carbon Revenue; Liberia; Deforestation; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Liberia

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2008
Article

Market Leadership and Strategic Investments in Innovation: The Adoption of E-Business Capabilities

By: Kristina Steffenson McElheran

This study focuses on whether more-productive firms are more likely to adopt process innovations and why. The empirical context is the adoption of e-business practices among U.S. manufacturing plants in early 2000. Based on detailed data from the U.S. Census of... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Innovation Strategy; Leadership; Motivation and Incentives; Competitive Advantage; Technology Adoption; Manufacturing Industry; United States

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2019
Working Paper

Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao

Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,... View Details

Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States

December 2023
Article

Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Wenhao Li

We document a regime change in the Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from net short to net long Treasury bonds. We construct “net-long” and “net-short” curves that account for balance sheet and financing costs, and show that actual... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Financial Markets; Financial Crisis; Asset Pricing

Fall 2014
Article

Price Restrictions in Multi-sided Platforms: Practices and Responses

By: Benjamin Edelman and Julian Wright

In connecting buyers to sellers, some two-sided platforms require that sellers offer their lowest prices through the platform, disallowing lower prices for direct sales or sales through competing platforms. In this article, we explore the various contexts where such... View Details

Keywords: Intermediaries; Strategy; Pricing; Vertical Restraints; Price; Distribution Channels

Article

Wage-Employment Contracts

By: Jerry R. Green and Charles M. Kahn

This paper studies the efficient agreements about the dependence of workers' earnings on employment, when the employment level is controlled by firms. The firms' superior information about profitability conditions is responsible for this form of contract governance.... View Details

Keywords: Labor; Wages; Contracts

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March 2020
Article

Do Managers Matter? A Natural Experiment from 42 R&D Labs in India

By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Tarun Khanna and Christos A. Makridis

We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the staggered entry of new managers into India’s 42 public R&D labs between 1994 and 2006 to study how alignment between the CEO and middle-level managers affect research productivity. We show that the introduction of new lab... View Details

Keywords: Incentives; Innovation; Productivity; Management; Alignment; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; India

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2023
Working Paper

The Impact of Unionization on Consumer Perceptions of Service Quality: Evidence from Starbucks

By: Isamar Troncoso, Minkyung Kim, Ishita Chakraborty and SooHyun Kim

The US has seen a rise in union movements, but their effects on service industry marketing outcomes like customer satisfaction and perceptions of service quality remain understudied. In this paper, we empirically study the impact on customer satisfaction and... View Details

Keywords: Labor Unions; Customer Satisfaction; Perception; Public Opinion; Employees; Food and Beverage Industry

2025
Working Paper

Threat and Assimilation: Evidence from Refugees in Germany

By: Philipp Jaschke, Sulin Sardoschau and Marco Tabellini

This paper studies the effects of local threat on the cultural assimilation and economic integration of refugees, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in their allocation across German regions between 2013 and 2016. We use representative survey data and... View Details

Keywords: Assimilation; Threat Hypothesis; Migration; Cultural Change; Refugees; Culture; Identity; Germany

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Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit

We show that business development companies (BDCs) — closed-end funds that provide a significant share of nonbank loans to middle market firms — are very well capitalized according to bank capital frameworks. They have median risk-based capital ratios of about 36% and,... View Details

Forthcoming
Article

Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein

We present evidence that pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings leads banks to increase risk. We start by showing that banks increase risk when they transition from private to public ownership through a public listing or an acquisition. The increase... View Details

Keywords: Ownership Type; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Transition; Price

Article

Liability Structure in Small-Scale Finance

By: Fenella Carpena, Shawn Cole, Jeremy Shapiro and Bilal Zia

Microfinance, the provision of small individual and business loans, has experienced dramatic growth, reaching over 150 million borrowers worldwide. Much of the success of microfinance has been attributed to attempts to overcome the challenges of information asymmetries... View Details

Keywords: Microfinance; Emerging Markets; Financial Markets; Legal Liability; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; India

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December 2020
Article

Consumer Reactance to Promotional Favors

By: Marco Bertini and Aylin Aydinli

Promotional favors are an increasingly popular but seldom researched form of price promotion where the receipt of the saving by consumers depends on an action on their part that is nonmonetary in nature, such as completing a questionnaire, posting a review, or making a... View Details

Keywords: Promotional Favors; Conditional Discounts; Psychological Reactance; Price Promotions; Pricing; Marketing; Price; Consumer Behavior

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