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- June 2024
- Article
Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy
By: Tina Highfill and Matthew Weinzierl
Accurately measuring real economic output in the space economy is made difficult by the rapid increase in capabilities and decrease in prices of launch and satellite technologies achieved over the past two decades. Nominal measures of output in space will tend to... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence
By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The... View Details
- Second Quarter 2024
- Article
Venture Capital in a Time of Turmoil
By: Josh Lerner
One area of consensus among academic
economists and policymakers is the need
for greater innovation. This concern is
rooted in worries about the lagging rate
of productivity growth in many Western
nations. In the U.S., for instance, the productivity growth rate... View Details
- November 2023
- Article
Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success
By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg
People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Do Impact Investors Do Differently?
In recent years, impact investors—private investors who seek to generate simultaneously financial and social returns—have attracted intense interest and controversy. We introduce and analyze a novel, comprehensive data set of impact
and traditional investors to assess... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as
to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. This
study contributes to answer these questions by testing whether voters react to cues
by charismatic... View Details
Keywords: Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil
- 2023
- Working Paper
Interest-Rate Risk and Household Portfolios
By: Sylvain Catherine, Max Miller, James Paron and Natasha Sarin
How are households exposed to interest-rate risk? When rates fall, households face lower future expected returns but those holding long-term assets—disproportionately the wealthy and middle-aged—experience capital gains. We study the hedging demand for long-term assets... View Details
- September 28, 2023
- Article
A Perspective on the Great Reallocation of Global Supply Chains
By: Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor
Previous optimism that cross-border supply chains would improve efficiency for firms and open up growth opportunities for countries has been tempered by concerns that global value chains now expose firms and countries to the risk of disruptions. This column analyses... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality
By: Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, Ethan Mollick, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Katherine C. Kellogg, Saran Rajendran, Lisa Krayer, François Candelon and Karim R. Lakhani
The public release of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked tremendous interest in how humans will use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to accomplish a variety of tasks. In our study conducted with Boston Consulting Group, a global management consulting firm, we examine... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Global Supply Chains: The Looming 'Great Reallocation'
By: Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor
Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of U.S.-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern of U.S. participation in global value chains over the last four decades, in terms of... View Details
- September 2023
- Article
Corporate Purpose in Public and Private Firms
By: Claudine Gartenberg and George Serafeim
Analyzing data from approximately 1.5 million employees across 1,108 established public and private US companies, we find that the strength of employee beliefs related to purpose is weaker in public companies. Among public companies, those beliefs are stronger for... View Details
- September 2023
- Article
Measuring Time Use in Rural India: Design and Validation of a Low-Cost Survey Module
By: Erica Field, Rohini Pande, Natalia Rigol, Simone Schaner, Elena Stacy and Charity Troyer Moore
Time use data can help us understand individual labor supply choices, especially
for women who often provide unpaid care and home production. Although
enumerator-assisted diary-based time use data collection is suitable for
low-literacy populations, it is costly and... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Migration, Climate Similarity, and the Consequences of Climate Mismatch
By: Marguerite Obolensky, Marco Tabellini and Charles Taylor
This paper examines the concept of “climate matching” in migration—the idea that migrants seek out destinations with familiar climates. Focusing on the US, we document that temperature distance between origin and destination predicts the distribution of migrants across... View Details
Keywords: Migration; Climate; Immigration; Residency; Weather; Ethnicity; Climate Change; Geographic Location; Policy; United States
- 2023
- Working Paper
Much Ado About Nothing? Overreaction to Random Regulatory Audits
By: Samuel Antill and Joseph Kalmenovitz
Regulators often audit firms to detect non-compliance. Exploiting a natural experiment in the lobbying industry, we show that firms overreact to audits and this response distorts prices and reduces welfare. Each year, federal regulators audit a random sample of... View Details
- 2023
- Book
Precarious Ties: Business and the State in Authoritarian Asia
By: Meg Rithmire
Developing Asia has been the site of some of the last century's fastest growing economies as well as some of the world's most durable authoritarian regimes. Many accounts of rapid growth alongside monopolies on political power have focused on crony relationships... View Details
- August 2023
- Article
What About the Race Between Technology and Education in the Global South? Comparing Skill-premiums in Colonial Africa and Asia
By: Ewout Frankema and Marlous van Waijenburg
Historical research on the race between education and technology has focused on the West but barely touched upon ‘the rest’. A new occupational wage database for 50 African and Asian economies allows us to compare long-run patterns in skill premiums across the colonial... View Details
- July 2023 (Revised July 2023)
- Background Note
Generative AI Value Chain
By: Andy Wu and Matt Higgins
Generative AI refers to a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that can create new content (e.g., text, image, or audio) in response to a prompt from a user. ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude are examples of text generating AIs, and DALL-E, Midjourney, and Stable Diffusion are... View Details
- July 2023
- Article
Managerial Quality and Productivity Dynamics
By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
Do productivity and managerial quality vary within the firm? If so which managerial traits and practices matter most for team productivity? Combining granular garment production data with survey data on managers across 120 production lines in India, we document... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment
By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental
R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more
knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Causes and Consequences of State Violence against Civilians: The Rohingya of Myanmar
By: C. Austin Davis, Paula Lopez-Pena, A. Mushfiq Mobarak and Jaya Wen
The Rohingya crisis is a severe, ongoing conflict involving large-scale violence and forced displacement, yet its causes are contested and its consequences lack systematic documentation. We marshal a variety of existing and original data to shed light on its drivers,... View Details