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      • Faculty Publications  (399)

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War

      By: Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen and Sung-Ju Wu
      This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit Harmonized... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; International Relations; Logistics; China; Viet Nam; United States
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      Iyoha, Ebehi, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, and Sung-Ju Wu. "Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-072, May 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • March 2024
      • Module Note

      Navigating the Future: Managing Financial Forecasts

      By: Mark Egan
      This module note guides instructors on delivering a course module that focuses on understanding, developing, and using financial forecasts from a chief financial officer’s (CFO) perspective. The cases in the module equip students with an understanding of the techniques... View Details
      Keywords: CFO; Forecasting; Corporate Finance; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Management; Revenue; United States
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      Egan, Mark. "Navigating the Future: Managing Financial Forecasts." Harvard Business School Module Note 224-075, March 2024.
      • February 2024
      • Teaching Note

      AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

      By: Mark Egan and C. Fritz Foley
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 224-020. In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting; Investor Relations; Beverage Industry; Corporate Finance; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Analytics and Data Science; Digital Transformation; Crisis Management; Business Model; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Europe
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      Egan, Mark, and C. Fritz Foley. "AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 224-074, February 2024.
      • January 2024
      • Supplement

      Buurtzorg

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Tatiana Sandino
      As co-founders of home nursing company Buurtzorg, Jos de Blok and Gonnie Kronenberg prized both self-management and organizational learning. Buurtzorg’s 10,000 nurses across 950 neighborhood nursing teams in the Netherlands were empowered to manage themselves, both in... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Design; Management Style; Business Model; Knowledge Dissemination; Learning; Organizational Culture; Health Industry; Netherlands
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Tatiana Sandino. "Buurtzorg." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 424-705, January 2024.
      • January 2024 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Huawei: Resilience amid Autarky and Adversity

      By: William C. Kirby and Daniel Fu
      In September 2023, Huawei made a dramatic return to the global smartphone space with the launch of its Mate 60 Pro smartphone, equipped with an indigenously designed, 7nm chip. This came despite a myriad of export controls and restrictions imposed against the company... View Details
      Keywords: International Strategy; Semiconductors; Smartphone; Government And Politics; Government And Business; Digital Infrastructure; 5G; Political Risk; Business and Government Relations; Global Strategy; Multinational Firms and Management; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; AI and Machine Learning; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Leadership; Retirement; Corporate Strategy; Technology Industry; China; United States; Europe; Asia; Middle East
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      Kirby, William C., and Daniel Fu. "Huawei: Resilience amid Autarky and Adversity." Harvard Business School Case 324-069, January 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Contributing to Growth? The Role of Open Source Software for Global Startups

      By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Frank Nagle and Shane Greenstein
      How does participating in open source software (OSS) communities spur entrepreneurial growth? To address this question, we analyze novel data matching accounts from GitHub—the largest OSS hosting platform—to the universe of global software venture-backed firms... View Details
      Keywords: Applications and Software; Open Source Distribution; Entrepreneurship; Business Growth and Maturation; Human Capital; Valuation; Corporate Strategy
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      Wright, Nataliya Langburd, Frank Nagle, and Shane Greenstein. "Contributing to Growth? The Role of Open Source Software for Global Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-040, January 2024. (Revised August 2024.)
      • December 2023
      • Teaching Note

      Buurtzorg

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Tatiana Sandino
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 122-101. As co-founders of home nursing company Buurtzorg, Jos de Blok and Gonnie Kronenberg prized both self-management and organizational learning. Buurtzorg’s 10,000 nurses across 950 neighborhood nursing teams in the Netherlands were... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Employee Relationship Management; Knowledge Dissemination; Knowledge Management; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Groups and Teams; Learning; Health Industry; Netherlands
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Tatiana Sandino. "Buurtzorg." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 124-059, December 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network

      By: Ebehi Iyoha
      This paper examines the extent to which productivity gains are transmitted across U.S. firms through buyer-supplier relationships. Many empirical studies measure firm-to-firm spillovers using firm-level productivity estimates derived from control function approaches.... View Details
      Keywords: Supply and Industry; Partners and Partnerships; Production
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      Iyoha, Ebehi. "Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-033, December 2023. (Winner of the Young Economists' Essay Award at the 2021 Annual Conference of the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE))
      • 2023
      • Article

      Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

      By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
      Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details
      Keywords: Product Launch; Mathematical Methods; Product Development
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      Li, Yufan, Jialiang Mao, and Iavor Bojinov. "Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
      • December 2023
      • Article

      What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
      We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the... View Details
      Keywords: Prices; Stockouts; Inventories; Supply Disruptions; COVID-19 Pandemic; Supply Chain; Product; Demand and Consumers
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data." Journal of International Economics 146 (December 2023).
      • November 2023
      • Case

      Nourishing Communities: Brighter Bites Approach to Childhood Nutrition

      By: David E. Bell, Forest Reinhardt and Ai-Ling Jamila Malone
      In September 2023, Brighter Bites, a Houston-based non-profit that distributed fresh produce and nutrition education in underserved communities across 11 cities and 5 states, grappled with identifying the best path forward for continued growth. Brighter Bites proved... View Details
      Keywords: Nutrition; Growth and Development Strategy; Logistics; Nonprofit Organizations; Human Needs; Poverty; Houston
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      Bell, David E., Forest Reinhardt, and Ai-Ling Jamila Malone. "Nourishing Communities: Brighter Bites Approach to Childhood Nutrition." Harvard Business School Case 724-007, November 2023.
      • October 2023
      • Case

      JPMorgan Chase in Paris

      By: Joseph L. Bower, Dante Roscini, Elena Corsi and Michael Norris
      In 2019, Daniel Pinto, President and COO of JPMorgan Chase, has to make a recommendation to the bank’s Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, about where to physically locate the bank’s European trading operations after Brexit takes effect in 2020. The decision-making process... View Details
      Keywords: Change Management; Banks and Banking; Financial Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Decisions; Banking Industry; Europe; European Union; France; United Kingdom; Paris
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      Bower, Joseph L., Dante Roscini, Elena Corsi, and Michael Norris. "JPMorgan Chase in Paris." Harvard Business School Case 724-001, October 2023.
      • October 2023
      • Article

      Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA

      By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details
      Keywords: Safety Regulations; Regulations; Regulatory Enforcement; Machine Learning Models; Safety; Operations; Service Operations; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Decisions; United States
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      Johnson, Matthew S., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 15, no. 4 (October 2023): 30–67. (Profiled in the Regulatory Review.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Input Inaccuracy on Leveraging AI Tools: Evidence from Algorithmic Labor Scheduling

      By: Caleb Kwon, Antonio Moreno and Ananth Raman
      Problem Definition: Considerable academic and practitioner attention is placed on the value of ex-post interactions (i.e., overrides) in the human-AI interface. In contrast, relatively little attention has been paid to ex-ante human-AI interactions (e.g., the... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Employees; Performance Effectiveness
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      Kwon, Caleb, Antonio Moreno, and Ananth Raman. "The Impact of Input Inaccuracy on Leveraging AI Tools: Evidence from Algorithmic Labor Scheduling." Working Paper, January 2025.
      • September 2023 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

      By: Mark Egan, C. Fritz Foley, Esel Cekin and Emilie Billaud
      In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a workforce of 160,000 in 2020, AB InBev... View Details
      Keywords: Beer; Forecasting; COVID-19; Decision; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Crisis Management; Decisions; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Distribution; Production; Business Processes; Strategic Planning; Health Pandemics; Digital Transformation; Markets; Food and Beverage Industry; Belgium; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America
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      Egan, Mark, C. Fritz Foley, Esel Cekin, and Emilie Billaud. "AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19." Harvard Business School Case 224-020, September 2023. (Revised January 2024.)
      • September 22, 2023
      • Article

      How Software Companies Can Avoid the Trap of Product-Led Growth

      By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Oliver Jay
      Companies like Slack and Dropbox have pioneered the use of Product-Led Growth (PLG). They start by building a product that’s indispensable for small teams, then count on low friction and customer advocates to expand throughout the organization. PLG works, at least at... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Product; Network Effects; Business Strategy
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      Bussgang, Jeffrey J., and Oliver Jay. "How Software Companies Can Avoid the Trap of Product-Led Growth." Harvard Business Review (website) (September 22, 2023).
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Better Keep the Twenty Dollars: Incentivizing Innovation in Open Source

      By: Annamaria Conti, Vansh Gupta, Jorge Guzman and Maria P. Roche
      Open source is key to innovation yet is assumed to be done largely through intrinsic motivation. How can we incentivize it? In this paper, we examine the impact of a program providing monetary incentives to motivate innovators to contribute to open source. The Sponsors... View Details
      Keywords: Open Source; Innovation; Incentives; Financial Rewards; Crowding Out; Open Source Distribution; Innovation and Invention; Motivation and Incentives; Technology Industry
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      Conti, Annamaria, Vansh Gupta, Jorge Guzman, and Maria P. Roche. "Better Keep the Twenty Dollars: Incentivizing Innovation in Open Source." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-014, September 2023. (Revised January 2025. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31668, September 2023)
      • August 2023
      • Supplement

      Reimagining Hindustan Unilever (B)

      By: Sunil Gupta and Rachna Tahilyani
      In April 2023, as the CEO and MD of Hindustan Unilever (HUL), India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firm, prepared to hand over the firm’s reins to his successor, he proudly reflected on the last decade. His quest to digitally transform HUL into an... View Details
      Keywords: Experimentation; Digital Transformation; Digital Strategy; Leading Change; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Business Strategy; Marketing; Performance; Competition; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Transformation; Distribution; Decisions; Consumer Products Industry; Asia; India
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Rachna Tahilyani. "Reimagining Hindustan Unilever (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 524-022, August 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Inconsistent Work Schedules on Employee Lateness and Absenteeism

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      Problem Definition: Employee lateness and absenteeism pose challenges for businesses, particularly in the retail industry, where punctuality is vital for optimal store operations and customer service. This paper relates employee lateness and absenteeism with... View Details
      Keywords: Behavior; Employees; Human Capital; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effects of Inconsistent Work Schedules on Employee Lateness and Absenteeism." Working Paper, August 2023.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Managing Remote Work Quality: Evidence from Auditing Management Systems Standards

      By: Ashley Palmarozzo, Michael W. Toffel and Melissa Ouellet
      Remote work has become more common, providing operational flexibility and productivity benefits, but questions remain about whether and how it affects work quality. We investigate the quality effects of remote work in a context in which remote work separates workers... View Details
      Keywords: Audit; Auditing; Remote Work; Compliance; Assessment; Environment; Management Systems; Quality Management; Quality Management System; Quality; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Environmental Management; Safety
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      Palmarozzo, Ashley, Michael W. Toffel, and Melissa Ouellet. "Managing Remote Work Quality: Evidence from Auditing Management Systems Standards." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-002, July 2023. (Revised February 2025.)
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