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Publications

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The New Digital Divide

      By: Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres
      We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics; Geographic Location; Behavior; Technology Adoption; Demographics
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      Pereira, Mayana, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia, and Juan Lavista Ferres. "The New Digital Divide." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32932, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Operational Impact of Customer Location in On-Demand Services

      By: Natalie Epstein, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
      The rapid growth of on-demand delivery services, particularly in the food and grocery sectors, has driven the expansion of hyperlocal fulfillment centers (FCs). This paper uses data from an on-demand grocery delivery platform in Latin America to assess how customer... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Logistics; Geographic Location; Service Delivery; Quality; Retail Industry; Latin America
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      Epstein, Natalie, Santiago Gallino, and Antonio Moreno. "The Operational Impact of Customer Location in On-Demand Services." Working Paper, September 2024.
      • August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
      • Case

      No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan

      By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn
      After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access in... View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Lawsuits and Litigation; Failure; System Shocks; Political Elections; Motivation and Incentives; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States
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      White, Robert F., and Tom Quinn. "No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan." Harvard Business School Case 825-044, August 2024. (Revised November 2024.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous

      By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan and Pat Barclay
      What do people think of victims who conceal their victimhood? We propose that the decision to not broadcast that one has been victimized serves as a costly act of modesty—in doing so, one is potentially forgoing social support and compensation from one’s community. We... View Details
      Keywords: Public Opinion; Mathematical Methods; Communication; Perception; Reputation
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      Dhaliwal, Nathan, Jillian J. Jordan, and Pat Barclay. "Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous." Working Paper, August 2024.
      • 2024
      • Chapter

      Corporations as the Central Institutions of Society

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco
      Mark Twain observed that, “Prediction is very difficult—particularly when it involves the future,” and he was right. One way to reduce the risk of becoming an infamous forecaster—like the experts who told us the Internet would quickly collapse, that Apple would never... View Details
      Keywords: Trends; Business and Government Relations; Organizations; Power and Influence; Society
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      Badaracco, Joseph L. "Corporations as the Central Institutions of Society." Chap. 4 in Justifying Next Stage Capitalism: Exploring a Hopeful Future, edited by Michel Dion and Moses Pava, 87–106. Springer, 2024.
      • July–August 2024
      • Article

      Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations

      By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
      How prevalent are severe software vulnerabilities, how fast do software users respond to the availability of secure versions, and what determines the variance in the installation distribution? Using the largest dataset ever assembled on user updates, tracking server... View Details
      Keywords: Cybersecurity; Applications and Software; Technology Adoption; Consumer Behavior
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      Murciano-Goroff, Raviv, Ran Zhuo, and Shane Greenstein. "Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32696, July 2024.
      • July 2024
      • Article

      The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is

      By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
      Each time a stock gets added to or dropped from a benchmark index, we ask: “How much money would have to be tracking that index to explain the huge spike in rebalancing volume we observe on reconstitution day?” While index funds held 16% of the US stock market in 2021,... View Details
      Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
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      Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is." Journal of Financial Economics 157 (July 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms

      By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Chris Karr
      Understanding the behavior of users online is important for researchers, policymakers, and private companies alike. But observing online behavior and conducting experiments is difficult without direct access to the user base and software of technology companies. We... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Technology Adoption; Behavior; Research; Consumer Behavior; Internet and the Web
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      Farronato, Chiara, Andrey Fradkin, and Chris Karr. "Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32694, July 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Advancing Personalization: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize

      By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer
      Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details
      Keywords: Personalization; Targeting; Experiments; Observational Studies; Policy Implementation; Policy Evaluation; Customization and Personalization; Marketing Strategy; AI and Machine Learning
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela, and Oded Netzer. "Advancing Personalization: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize." Working Paper, July 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Rationalizing Outcomes: Interdependent Learning in Competitive Markets

      By: Anoop R. Menon and Dennis Yao
      In this article we use simulation models to explore interdependent learning in competitive markets. Such interactions require attention to both the mental representations held by the management of the focal firm as well as the beliefs of that management about the... View Details
      Keywords: Mental Models; Strategic Interactions; Rationalization; Explanation-based View; Competition
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      Menon, Anoop R., and Dennis Yao. "Rationalizing Outcomes: Interdependent Learning in Competitive Markets." Strategy Science 9, no. 2 (June 2024): 97–117.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • June 2024
      • Article

      The Diversity Heuristic: How Team Demographic Composition Influences Judgments of Team Creativity

      By: Devon Proudfoot, Zachariah Berry, Edward H. Chang and Min B. Kay
      Despite mixed evidence for the relationship between demographic diversity and creativity, we propose that observers hold a lay belief that demographic diversity increases creativity and apply this lay belief in judgments about teams and their creative work. Across... View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Race; Gender; Groups and Teams; Perception; Creativity
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      Proudfoot, Devon, Zachariah Berry, Edward H. Chang, and Min B. Kay. "The Diversity Heuristic: How Team Demographic Composition Influences Judgments of Team Creativity." Management Science 70, no. 6 (June 2024): 3879–3901.
      • May 2024
      • Article

      Moral Thin-Slicing: Forming Moral Impressions from a Brief Glance

      By: Julian De Freitas and Alon Hafri
      Despite the modern rarity with which people are visual witness to moral transgressions involving physical harm, such transgressions are more accessible than ever thanks to their availability on social media and in the news. On one hand, the literature suggests that... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Judgement; Thin Slices; Social Media; Fake News; Misinformation; Moral Sensibility; News; Behavior
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      De Freitas, Julian, and Alon Hafri. "Moral Thin-Slicing: Forming Moral Impressions from a Brief Glance." Art. 104588. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 112 (May 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence

      By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
      We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The... View Details
      Keywords: News; Mathematical Methods; Prejudice and Bias; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Armona, Luis, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32512, May 2024.
      • March 2024 (Revised March 2024)
      • Teaching Note

      CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub

      By: Frank Nagle and Maria P. Roche
      This teaching note is the companion to case N9-624-010 CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub, which takes place in late 2021. The case briefly describes the history of both GitHub and Microsoft with a particular focus on open source software (OSS)—software... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; AI and Machine Learning; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Product Launch; Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Commercialization; Competition; Resource Allocation; Technology Industry
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      Nagle, Frank, and Maria P. Roche. "CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 724-452, March 2024. (Revised March 2024.)
      • March 2024
      • Module Note

      Module Note on the Structuring of Collaborative Work

      By: Ethan Bernstein
      This module note for instructors describes the organizational structure module of the Managing Human Capital course that integrates insights from research on workplace connectivity (who gets to communicate with whom) and workplace transparency (who gets to observe... View Details
      Keywords: Human Resources; Management; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Human Capital
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      Bernstein, Ethan. "Module Note on the Structuring of Collaborative Work." Harvard Business School Module Note 424-054, March 2024.
      • March 2024 (Revised May 2025)
      • Case

      Governing OpenAI (A)

      By: Lynn S. Paine, Suraj Srinivasan and Will Hurwitz
      In late November 2023, OpenAI’s new board of directors took stock of the situation. The company, which sought to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI)—computer systems with capabilities exceeding human abilities—was looking to regain its footing after a chaotic... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Board Of Directors; Board Decisions; Board Dynamics; Corporate Boards; Governance Changes; Governance Structure; Leadership Change; Legal Aspects Of Business; Nonprofit Governance; Strategy And Execution; Technological Change; AI and Machine Learning; Corporate Governance; Leadership; Management; Mission and Purpose; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Resignation and Termination; Ethics; Nonprofit Organizations; Open Source Distribution; Partners and Partnerships; Technology Industry; San Francisco; United States
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      Paine, Lynn S., Suraj Srinivasan, and Will Hurwitz. "Governing OpenAI (A)." Harvard Business School Case 324-103, March 2024. (Revised May 2025.)
      • February 2024
      • Article

      An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      We propose an economic framework for determining the optimal allocation of a scarce supply of vaccines that become gradually available during a public health crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Agents differ in observable and unobservable characteristics, and the... View Details
      Keywords: Vaccine; Fairness; Public Finance; Public Goods; Allocation Problems; Allocative Efficiency; Allocation Rules; Social Welfare; Pandemics; Inequality; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; Public Sector; Resource Allocation; Market Design; Marketplace Matching; Public Administration Industry
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 359–417. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation

      By: Hanne Collins, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal and Alison Wood Brooks
      Across all domains of human social life, positive perceptions of conversational listening (i.e., feeling heard) predict well-being, professional success, and interpersonal flourishing. But a fundamental question remains: Are perceptions of listening accurate? Prior... View Details
      Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Behavior; Perception
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      Collins, Hanne, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 153, no. 2 (February 2024): 473–494.
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