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(688)
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- Faculty Publications (300)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(688)
- People (1)
- News (106)
- Research (517)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (2)
- Faculty Publications (300)
- 02 Feb 2010
- News
Judgment call: an inside job?
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- 2017
- Conference Presentation
Changing Moral Judgments by Exploiting the Visual System
By: J. De Freitas and G. A. Alvarez
- fall 2007
- Article
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
- March 2021
- Article
Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details
Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
- Article
Kill or Die: Moral Judgment Alters Linguistic Coding of Causality
By: Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli, Jason Nemirow, Maxim Massenkoff and Steven Pinker
What is the relationship between the language people use to describe an event and their moral judgments?
We test the hypothesis that moral judgment and causative verbs rely on the same underlying mental
model of people’s actions. Experiment 1a finds that participants... View Details
Keywords: Moral Cognition; Moral Psychology; Causative Verbs; Trolley Problem; Argument Structure; Moral Sensibility; Judgments
De Freitas, Julian, Peter DiScioli, Jason Nemirow, Maxim Massenkoff, and Steven Pinker. "Kill or Die: Moral Judgment Alters Linguistic Coding of Causality." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 43, no. 8 (August 2017): 1173–1182.
- 22 Feb 2018
- News
Economists cannot avoid making value judgments
Teaching AI to Handle Exceptions: Supervised Fine-Tuning with Human-Aligned Judgment
Large language models (LLMs), initially developed for generative AI, are now evolving into agentic AI systems, which make decisions in complex, real-world contexts. Unfortunately, while their generative capabilities are well-documented, their decision-making... View Details
- July – August 2008
- Article
Reduce the Risk of Failed Financial Judgments
By: Robert G. Eccles Jr. and Edward J. Riedl
When crucial financial estimates rely on judgment, companies can minimize their risk by turning to appraisers, actuaries, and evaluators, whether internal, external, or a combination. View Details
Eccles, Robert G., Jr., and Edward J. Riedl. "Reduce the Risk of Failed Financial Judgments." HBS Centennial Issue Harvard Business Review 86, nos. 7/8 (July–August 2008).
- Article
The Influence of Standards on Judgment and Choices
By: A. E. Tenbrunsel, K. A. Wade-Benzoni, D. M. Messick and M. H. Bazerman
Tenbrunsel, A. E., K. A. Wade-Benzoni, D. M. Messick, and M. H. Bazerman. "The Influence of Standards on Judgment and Choices." Academy of Management Journal 43, no. 5 (October 2000): 854–866.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment
By: Jennifer M. Logg, Julia A. Minson and Don A. Moore
Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think... View Details
Keywords: Algorithms; Accuracy; Advice Taking; Forecasting; Theory Of Machine; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Trust
Logg, Jennifer M., Julia A. Minson, and Don A. Moore. "Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-086, March 2017. (Revised April 2018.)
- 1998
- Chapter
The Role of Judgment in Global Climate Change
By: M. H. Bazerman, C. Buisseret and K. A. Wade-Benzoni
Bazerman, M. H., C. Buisseret, and K. A. Wade-Benzoni. "The Role of Judgment in Global Climate Change." In Global Climate Change, edited by A. Hoffman. Jossey-Bass, 1998.
- 1986
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Leader's Guide to Discussion for Video Program: A Matter of Judgment
By: Lynn S. Paine and Ronald Walden
- March 2010
- Article
Nameless + Harmless = Blameless: When Seemingly Irrelevant Factors Influence Judgment of (Un)ethical Behavior
By: Francesca Gino, Lisa L. Shu and Max Bazerman
People often make judgments about the ethicality of others’ behaviors and then decide how harshly to punish such behaviors. When they make these judgments and decisions, sometimes the victims of the unethical behavior are identifiable, and sometimes they are not. In... View Details
Gino, Francesca, Lisa L. Shu, and Max Bazerman. "Nameless + Harmless = Blameless: When Seemingly Irrelevant Factors Influence Judgment of (Un)ethical Behavior." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 111, no. 2 (March 2010): 93–101.
- September 2018
- Supplement
From Beirut With Love (B): The Last Judgment
By: Christina R. Wing, Esel Y. Cekin and Samer Al-Rachedy
Keywords: Family Business; Family Conflicts; Sibling Rivalry; Second-generation; Foundation; Trust; Governance; Work-life Balance; Leadership; Leading Change; Transformation; Succession Planning; Management; Organizational Structure; Corporate Culture; Shareholder; Board Of Directors; Retail; Real Estate; Shopping Mall; Department Store; Growth; Lebanon; Middle East; Non-executive Chairman; Sustainability
Wing, Christina R., Esel Y. Cekin, and Samer Al-Rachedy. "From Beirut With Love (B): The Last Judgment." Harvard Business School Supplement 619-027, September 2018.
- 2015
- Conference Presentation
Behaviorist Thinking in Judgments of Wrongness, Punishment, and Blame
By: J. De Freitas and S. G. B. Johnson
- June 2024
- Article
The Diversity Heuristic: How Team Demographic Composition Influences Judgments of Team Creativity
By: Devon Proudfoot, Zachariah Berry, Edward H. Chang and Min B. Kay
Despite mixed evidence for the relationship between demographic diversity and creativity, we propose that observers hold a lay belief that demographic diversity increases creativity and apply this lay belief in judgments about teams and their creative work. Across... View Details
Proudfoot, Devon, Zachariah Berry, Edward H. Chang, and Min B. Kay. "The Diversity Heuristic: How Team Demographic Composition Influences Judgments of Team Creativity." Management Science 70, no. 6 (June 2024): 3879–3901.
- Article
Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments
By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic
Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make... View Details
Keywords: Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics
Tetlock, Philip E., Barbara A. Mellers, and J. Peter Scoblic. "Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments." Science 355, no. 6324 (February 3, 2017): 481–483.
- 2009
- Book
Social Decision Making: Social Dilemmas, Social Values, and Ethical Judgments
By: Roderick M. Kramer, Ann E. Tenbrunsel and Max H. Bazerman
This book, in honor of David Messick, is about social decisions and the role cooperation plays in social life. Noted contributors who worked with Dave over the years will discuss their work in social judgment, decision making, and ethics which was so important to Dave. View Details
Kramer, Roderick M., Ann E. Tenbrunsel and Max H. Bazerman, eds. Social Decision Making: Social Dilemmas, Social Values, and Ethical Judgments. New York: Routledge, 2009.