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June 2024
Article

Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy

By: Tina Highfill and Matthew Weinzierl

Accurately measuring real economic output in the space economy is made difficult by the rapid increase in capabilities and decrease in prices of launch and satellite technologies achieved over the past two decades. Nominal measures of output in space will tend to... View Details

Keywords: Technological Innovation; Economic Growth; Price; Production; Aerospace Industry

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May 2024
Article

Financial Innovation in the 21st Century: Evidence from U.S. Patents

By: Josh Lerner, Amit Seru, Nick Short and Yuan Sun

We develop a unique dataset of 24 thousand U.S. finance patents granted over the last two decades to explore the evolution and production of financial innovation. We use machine learning to identify the financial patents and extensively audit the results to ensure... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Investment Banks; Information Technology; Regulation; Patents; Innovation and Invention; Trends

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2024
Working Paper

Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov

Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets

April 2024
Supplement

Recycle & Re-Match: The Future of Soccer Turfs

By: George Serafeim

April 2024 (Revised July 2024)
Case

Unleashing Human Magic at Best Buy

By: Leonard A. Schlesinger, Sunil Gupta and Amram Migdal

The case examines the transformation of Best Buy under CEO Hubert Joly's leadership from 2012. Facing significant business challenges, including competition from online and physical retailers, Joly implemented the "Renew Blue" turnaround strategy, which focused on... View Details

April 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

Moderna: Pioneering a People Platform to Accelerate Science Innovation

By: Tatiana Sandino, Emil Dy and Samuel Grad

Moderna was founded in 2010 to explore how messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) could be used to create breakthrough medicines by encoding instructions for the body to create antibodies. When Stéphane Bancel (HBS 2000) took over in 2011, he bet on the potential of this... View Details

Keywords: Disruptive Innovation; Talent and Talent Management; Selection and Staffing; AI and Machine Learning; Digital Strategy; Innovation and Management; Leadership Development; Management Practices and Processes; Management Systems; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Alignment; Employee Relationship Management; Science-Based Business; Expansion; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States

2024
Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting

March 2024 (Revised June 2024)
Case

Kashat: Navigating the Uncertainties of the Egyptian Fintech Market

By: Paul A. Gompers and Ahmed Dahawy

Karim Nour, the founder of Kashat, an Egyptian nano-lending fintech company, is contemplating how to manage the growth of his startup. Over the summer of 2022, Kashat's loan disbursements had grown by nearly 40%, fueled by macroeconomic instability in Egypt. However,... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Business Model; Developing Countries and Economies; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Financing and Loans; Capital; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; Egypt

March 2024 (Revised August 2024)
Case

Darktrace: Scaling Cybersecurity and AI (A)

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Alexis Lefort

In 2023, Darktrace CEO Poppy Gustafsson was contemplating her growth strategy at a leading U.K.-based cybersecurity venture, launched in 2013 by a group of anti-terror cyber specialists, University of Cambridge mathematicians, and artificial intelligence (AI) experts.... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Talent; Scaling; Entrepreneurship; Cybersecurity; Leadership; Business Growth and Maturation; Recruitment; Resignation and Termination; AI and Machine Learning; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Culture; Going Public; Technology Industry; United Kingdom; Europe; United States

February 2024
Teaching Note

AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

By: Mark Egan and C. Fritz Foley

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 224-020. In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Investor Relations; Beverage Industry; Corporate Finance; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Analytics and Data Science; Digital Transformation; Crisis Management; Business Model; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Europe

February 2024 (Revised April 2024)
Case

Finberg: Corporate Venture Capital in Türkiye

By: Paul A. Gompers and Namrata Arora

In December 2021, Murat Özyeğin, Chairman of Fiba Holding, along with Ömer Mert and İhsan Elgin, engaged in discussions about the future of United Payment, a fintech company in which Finberg, a subsidiary of Fibabanka, held a 20% stake. Finberg, established in 2018 as... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Venture Capital; Technology; Return On Investment; Venture Capital; Investment; Strategy; Technological Innovation; Competition; Valuation; Acquisition; Business Startups; Information Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry; Middle East; North Africa; Turkey; Ukraine; Romania; Poland

February 2024 (Revised July 2024)
Case

Taffi: Entrepreneurship in Saudi Arabia

By: Paul A. Gompers and Fares Khrais

Taffi was a tech-enabled fashion styling startup founded by Shahad Geoffrey in Saudi Arabia in 2020. Within three years of operating, Geoffrey had pivoted the business multiple times. In 2023, Geoffrey was attempting the business’s most ambitious pivot yet, shifting... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Strategy; AI and Machine Learning; Fashion Industry; Technology Industry; Saudi Arabia; Arabian Peninsula

February 2024 (Revised February 2025)
Case

Financing Matillion's Scaleup (A)

By: Raymond Kluender, Emanuele Colonnelli and Ramana Nanda

In 2019, Matthew Scullion, founder and CEO of U.K. startup Matillion, faced a decision about which term sheet to accept for the lead investor in his company’s $35 million Series C financing round. Would the connections and opportunities offered by Silicon Valley-based... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Negotiation; Ownership; Business Startups; Decisions; Venture Capital; Financing and Loans; Valuation; Information Technology Industry; United Kingdom

2023
Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

GameStop: Social Media Finds a Cheat Code (A)

By: Joseph Pacelli and Sarah Mehta

This case covers the events leading up to the 2021 GameStop short squeeze. Using GameStop as an illustrative example, the case explores the rise in retail trading, increased financial information sharing on social media, and the gamification of investing enabled by... View Details

Keywords: Value; Stocks; Financial Markets; Social Media; Investment; Applications and Software; Financial Services Industry; United States

October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

Fantuan

By: Feng Zhu and David Lane

In 2023, CEO Randy Wu was considering the optimal growth strategy for Fantuan, a restaurant food delivery platform that had expanded from its 2014 founding in Vancouver, Canada to serve the Chinese demand for Asian cuisine in urban markets across Australia, Canada, the... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Focus and Relationships; Diasporas; Entrepreneurship; Digital Platforms; Growth Management; Business Strategy; Diversification; Expansion; Growth and Development Strategy; Service Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Canada; United Kingdom; Australia

October 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Case

SEK: Reimagining Spanish Higher Education at Universidad Camilo José Cela (UCJC)

By: John J-H Kim, Mary C. Sauer and Emilie Billaud

In 2023, Nieves Segovia, President of the SEK Education Group in Spain, contemplates the future of her family's for-profit education company, which includes K-12 schools and the newly established UCJC university. Renowned for its innovation in education, SEK faces... View Details

Keywords: Family Business; Curriculum and Courses; Higher Education; Teaching; Digital Strategy; Disruptive Innovation; Knowledge Dissemination; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Management Succession; Resource Allocation; Organizational Structure; Education Industry; Europe; Spain

October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

Fortinet: Cybersecurity Pioneer Ken Xie Considers the Long Game

By: Tsedal Neeley, Jeff Huizinga and Emily Grandjean

Ken Xie, cofounder of cybersecurity giant Fortinet, faced a critical decision that would validate his leadership. Fortinet became the industry’s second-largest pureplay cybersecurity firm by developing differentiated hardware and investing in R&D. However, after a... View Details

Keywords: Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Marketing Strategy; Communication Strategy; Cybersecurity; Competitive Advantage; Information Technology Industry; United States; Sunnyvale

October 2023 (Revised November 2023)
Case

Recycle & Re-Match: The Future of Soccer Turfs

By: George Serafeim, Lena Duchene and Carlota Moniz

By August 2023, Re-Match, an artificial turf waste-to-value company, had operations in Denmark and the Netherlands and had recycled over 160,000 tons of waste and plastic fiber. With recent capital injection from the VC firm Verdane and a dual revenue business model,... View Details

2023
Working Paper

How Private Investors Value 'Platformness': An Exploratory Study of Unicorns

By: David B. Yoffie, Michael A. Cusumano, Annabelle Gawer, Sarah von Bargen and Kwesi Acquay

This paper explores the premium investors have been willing to pay for private companies (unicorns) that are digital platforms vs. traditional companies. View Details

Keywords: Platforms And Ecosystems; Digital Platforms; Investment Portfolio

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