Publications

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

27 Oct 2017
News

Wanted for any job: A bachelor’s degree. Is that smart?

December 2020
Article

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger

We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Currency; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty

December 2010
Article

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Framework; Problems and Challenges; Interest Rates; Cost; Developing Countries and Economies; Service Operations

2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Time

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives

August 2014
Article

What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Stephen P. Zeldes

We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few... View Details

Keywords: Annuity; Pension; Retirement Income; Framing; Annuities; Retirement

2010
Chapter

The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno

This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Inflation and Deflation; Capital Markets; Currency; Stocks; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management

03 Oct 2023
HBS Case

Layoffs Can Be Bad Business: 5 Strategies to Consider Before Cutting Staff

The pattern has become painfully predictable in recent years: As the economy shows signs of a slowdown, companies hand out layoff notices to stabilize profitability and calm investor fears. That cycle seems to be in place in the post-pandemic business world, as... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand; Telecommunications; Technology; Financial Services; Manufacturing

25 Mar 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Demographics, Career Concerns or Social Comparison: Who Games SSRN Download Counts?

Keywords: by Benjamin G. Edelman & Ian I. Larkin; Education

When Do Stocks and Bonds Move Together, and Why Does it Matter?

The co-movement of Treasury bonds and stocks is an important indicator for both policy makers and for long-term investors. A positive co-movement between nominal Treasury bonds and stocks, as in the 1980s, means that nominal bonds amplify the volatility of stock... View Details

June 2021
Case

Modern Endowment Management: Paula Volent and the Bowdoin Endowment

By: Luis M. Viceira, Emily R. McComb and Dean Xu

This case examines modern endowment investment management through the lens of a leadership transition between Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). In March 2021, Paula Volent is about to step down as the CIO of the endowment of Bowdoin College after twenty-one years, and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Banking; Growth Management; Investment Return; Capital Markets; Interest Rates; Competition; Cost Management; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Performance Evaluation

Educators

2018
Working Paper

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range

21 Nov 2022
Research & Ideas

Buy Now, Pay Later: How Retail's Hot Feature Hurts Low-Income Shoppers

Consumers who make multiple purchases may be served by different fintech providers, which may be harder to track than credit cards that come with a list of purchases on a statement. Some buyers end up paying BNPL bills with savings or other forms of credit, the authors... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Retail; Financial Services; Technology

March 2023
Supplement

Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm

By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais

Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details

Keywords: Insurance And Reinsurance; Natural Disasters; Turkey; Insurance; Climate Change; Analytics and Data Science; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Turkey

March 2023 (Revised April 2024)
Case

Allianz Türkiye: Adapting to Climate Change

By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais

Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details

Keywords: Insurance And Reinsurance; Natural Disasters; Turkey; Insurance; Climate Change; Analytics and Data Science; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Turkey

Educators

November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry

Educators

07 Sep 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

Keywords: by Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira

2003
Book

Profits You Can Trust: Spotting and Surviving Accounting Landmines

By: H. David Sherman, S. David Young and Harris Collingwood

Profits You Can Trust gives managers, directors, lenders, audit partners and analysts a clear framework to demystify global financial reporting in a market fraught with danger. Filled with provocative and enlightening examples, it offers a fresh perspective and clear... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Corporate Finance; Economics; Financial Reporting