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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,287)
- News (115)
- Research (1,047)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (799)
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- January 1972
- Background Note
Note on Forecasting
By: Paul W. Marshall
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
- July 1985
- Background Note
Measuring Forecast Accuracy
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Measuring Forecast Accuracy." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-027, July 1985.
- October 2024
- Teaching Plan
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble
By: Lou Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
- 2013
- Case
Surveying Professional Forecasters
By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne
Lichtendahl, K. C., and Y. Grushka-Cockayne. "Surveying Professional Forecasters." University of Virginia, Darden School of Business Case UVA-QA-0805, 2013.
- 2011
- Technical Note
Scoring Expert Forecasts
By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne
Lichtendahl, K. C., and Y. Grushka-Cockayne. "Scoring Expert Forecasts." University of Virginia, Darden School of Business Technical Note UVA-QA-0772, 2011.
- March 2024
- Supplement
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)
By: N. Louis Shipley, Stacy Straaberg and Tom Quinn
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Valuation; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, Stacy Straaberg, and Tom Quinn. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 824-148, March 2024.
- April 2010
- Case
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several... View Details
Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Marketing Strategy; Price; Consumer Behavior; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Planning; Brands and Branding; Pharmaceutical Industry
Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-183, April 2010.
- March 2024
- Case
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)
By: N. Louis Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, and Stacy Straaberg. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)." Harvard Business School Case 824-057, March 2024.
- 2003
- Article
Do Investors Respond to Analysts’ Forecast Revisions As If Forecast Accuracy Is All That Matters?
By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse
Prior research suggests that investors' response to analyst forecast revisions increases with the analyst's forecast accuracy. We extend this research by examining whether investors appear to extract all of the information that analyst characteristics provide about... View Details
Clement, Michael B., and Senyo Tse. "Do Investors Respond to Analysts’ Forecast Revisions As If Forecast Accuracy Is All That Matters?" Accounting Review 78, no. 1 (2003): 227–249.
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- 07 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
The Better Way to Forecast the Future
Grushka-Cockayne, that executives should adopt a similar approach when it comes to using probability forecasts of business-critical issues; for example, the likelihood that product demand will increase by a given percentage next quarter.... View Details
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- February 2011
- Article
Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings
By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue
We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings... View Details
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Jeffrey Hales, and Yanfeng Xue. "Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings." Journal of Accounting & Economics 51, nos. 1-2 (February 2011): 279–299.
- 09 Jan 2014
- Research & Ideas
The Entrepreneurs Who Invented Economic Forecasting
economic future? How have forecasting methods changed over time? What makes one forecaster more popular than another? I chose to research these questions by focusing on the first generation of economic... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
- 2020
- Working Paper
Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
Datar, Srikant, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Siyu Zhang. "Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-113, December 2020.
- 1998
- Book
Forecasting Methods and Applications
By: S. Makridakis, S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman and Y. Chang
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Makridakis, S., S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman, and Y. Chang. Forecasting Methods and Applications. 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
- January 1983 (Revised September 1983)
- Case
E.T. Phone Home, Inc.: Forecasting Business Demand
By: John F. Cady and Frank V. Cespedes
Describes a process for forecasting market demand for an emerging technology--cellular radio. The student must critically evaluate the demand model and the market estimates, and modify them as appropriate in order to develop a marketing plan and budget. View Details
Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Business Processes; Technology
Cady, John F., and Frank V. Cespedes. "E.T. Phone Home, Inc.: Forecasting Business Demand." Harvard Business School Case 583-121, January 1983. (Revised September 1983.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.