Publications

01 Dec 2014
News

Forecasting ’15

Health Care: Data-Driven Diagnosis Robert Wah (AMP 175, 2008) President, American Medical Association; Global Chief Medical Officer, Computer Sciences Corporation “We’re entering the third phase of health information technology. The first phase was to get off of paper... View Details

Keywords: Food Services and Drinking Places; Hospitality; Ambulatory Health Care Services; Health, Social Assistance

2003
Article

Do Investors Respond to Analysts’ Forecast Revisions As If Forecast Accuracy Is All That Matters?

By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse

Prior research suggests that investors' response to analyst forecast revisions increases with the analyst's forecast accuracy. We extend this research by examining whether investors appear to extract all of the information that analyst characteristics provide about... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Sharing

06 Feb 2015
News

Improving Weather Forecasting

March 2024
Case

Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)

By: N. Louis Shipley and Stacy Straaberg

In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina

Educators

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

07 Jan 2019
Research & Ideas

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

Grushka-Cockayne, that executives should adopt a similar approach when it comes to using probability forecasts of business-critical issues; for example, the likelihood that product demand will increase by a given percentage next quarter.... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Air Transportation; Transportation

Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

April 2010
Case

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham

Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several... View Details

Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Marketing Strategy; Price; Consumer Behavior; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Planning; Brands and Branding; Pharmaceutical Industry

Educators

January 1972
Background Note

Note on Forecasting

By: Paul W. Marshall

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

July 1985
Background Note

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
Background Note

Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product

By: Elie Ofek

Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition

Educators

February 2011
Article

Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings

By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue

We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings... View Details

Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Financial Services Industry

Register to Read

2013
Case

Surveying Professional Forecasters

By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne

2011
Technical Note

Scoring Expert Forecasts

By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne

March 2024
Supplement

Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)

By: N. Louis Shipley, Stacy Straaberg and Tom Quinn

In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Valuation; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina

July – August 2008
Article

Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman

We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness