Publications
Publications
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(3,351)
- Faculty Publications (1,085)
- October 2024
- Article
Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship
By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton
We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details
- October 2024
- Article
How to Use Sales Assessments
Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Ponzi Funds
By: Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina
Many active funds hold concentrated portfolios. Flow-driven trading causes price pressure, which
pushes up the funds’ existing positions resulting in realized returns. We decompose fund returns
into a price pressure (self-inflated) and a fundamental component and... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details
- September 2024 (Revised October 2024)
- Case
River Remedy: Navigating Mississippi’s Medical Marijuana Market
By: Robin Greenwood, Richard S. Ruback and Robert Ialenti
MBA student William Chism, the founder of a fully integrated medical marijuana company based in Mississippi, must respond to a significant disruption in the fledgling industry. In late 2023, Rapid Analytics, one of two active licensed testing facilities, has its... View Details
Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Business Growth and Maturation; Forecasting and Prediction; Microeconomics; Local Range; Government Legislation; Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Competitive Strategy; Governance Controls; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Mississippi
- September 2024
- Case
Nvidia, Inc. in 2024 and the Future of AI
By: David B. Yoffie and Sarah von Bargen
Nvidia was one of the most successful companies in the world, reaching $3.4 trillion in valuation on June 18th, 2024. While Microsoft and Apple quickly recaptured the value crown, some analysts forecasted that Nvidia was so strongly positioned that it might become the... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Behavioral Attenuation
By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang
We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Finance Without Exotic Risk
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock
By: Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol
How do poor entrepreneurs trade off investments in business enterprises versus children's human capital, and how do these choices influence intergenerational socio-economic mobility? To examine this, we exploit experimental variation in household income resulting from... View Details
- 2024
- Article
Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts
By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler
Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host
countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S.
and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine
learning models that can... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
The Human Side of the Future of Work: Understanding the Role People Play in Shaping a Changing World
By: Jochen I. Menges, Lauren C. Howe, Erika Hall, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Sharon K. Parker, Riki Takeuchi, Abhijeet K. Vadera, Ashley Whillans and Susan K. Cohen
For as long as there has been work, there has been a “future of work,” through humans’ ingenuity and drive to get things done easier, faster, and better. With the industrial revolution, efforts to shape a better future of work were dominated by improvements in... View Details
- August 2024
- Case
The Walt Disney Company: Management Guidance
By: Joseph Pacelli and James Weber
In November 2023, financial analyst Aurora Fee was forecasting The Walt Disney Company’s earnings and stock price, with the goal of providing an investment recommendation to her clients. Disney, one of the world’s largest media and entertainment companies, had just... View Details
- August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
- Case
No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan
By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn
After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access in... View Details
- July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
- Case
Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)
By: David Collis and Haisley Wert
In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details
- July 2024
- Case
Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO
By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc
In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details
Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Interpersonal Communication; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Capital Markets; Private Equity; Investment Banking; Stock Options; Financial Markets; Initial Public Offering; Institutional Investing; Price Bubble; Digital Platforms; Digital Transformation; Internet and the Web; Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Managerial Roles; Agreements and Arrangements; Going Public; Ownership Stake; Performance Expectations; Work-Life Balance; Strategic Planning; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Rank and Position; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; Happiness; Reputation; Status and Position; Well-being; Information Technology Industry; Retail Industry; Canada
- July 2024
- Article
Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI
By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni
Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer
In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details
- June 2024
- Teaching Note
Roku 2021
By: David B. Yoffie
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-480. This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and... View Details
- June 2024
- Case
Vinalhaven: The Downtown Project
By: Richard S. Ruback, Matthew Preble, Ruth Page and Dave Habeeb
Vinalhaven is an island community located approximately 12 miles off the coast of Maine. The island has a year-round population of about 1,300 people as of 2022, with an additional 3,000 people who reside on the island in the summer months. The two largest industries... View Details