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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,361)
- News (511)
- Research (2,480)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,598)
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- August 2008
- Article
Economic Links and Predictable Returns
By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in
equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings
forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors
fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views
and to issue... View Details
- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
- February 2011
- Article
Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings
By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue
We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings... View Details
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Jeffrey Hales, and Yanfeng Xue. "Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings." Journal of Accounting & Economics 51, nos. 1-2 (February 2011): 279–299.
- 1998
- Book
Forecasting Methods and Applications
By: S. Makridakis, S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman and Y. Chang
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Makridakis, S., S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman, and Y. Chang. Forecasting Methods and Applications. 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- April 2010
- Case
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Metabical is a new weight loss drug from Cambridge Sciences Pharmaceuticals intended for moderately overweight individuals. In anticipation of final FDA approval, the senior director of marketing, Barbara Printup, prepares for the product launch and must make several... View Details
Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Marketing Strategy; Price; Consumer Behavior; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Planning; Brands and Branding; Pharmaceutical Industry
Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-183, April 2010.
- July 1999
- Article
Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter
By: Michael B. Clement
Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively... View Details
Clement, Michael B. "Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter." Journal of Accounting & Economics 27, no. 3 (July 1999): 285–303.
- February 2005
- Article
Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting
By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse
This study classifies analysts' earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that (1) boldness likelihood increases with the analyst's prior accuracy, brokerage size, and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows, consistent with... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., and Senyo Tse. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting." Journal of Finance 60, no. 1 (February 2005): 307–341.
- 2008
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins
Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
Bazerman, Max, and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Paperback ed. Harvard Business School Press, 2008.
- 07 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
The Better Way to Forecast the Future
different fields,” says Grushka-Cockayne, whose research is on data science, forecasting, project management, and behavioral decision-making. “Our work is focused on using crowds for prediction View Details
- 1995
- Book
Data Analysis, Regression, and Forecasting
By: A. Schleifer Jr. and D. E. Bell
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, A., Jr., and D. E. Bell. Data Analysis, Regression, and Forecasting. Cambridge, MA: Course Technology Inc. (CTI), 1995.
- 05 Jul 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
- October 2019 (Revised August 2020)
- Case
The Predictive Index
By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Weber
Mike Zani and Daniel Muzquiz needed to decide next steps to create a new category in the human resources consulting industry and scale their company.
Zani and Muzquiz, serial entrepreneurs, acquired Predictive Index in 2014. Previously, as clients of the... View Details
Zani and Muzquiz, serial entrepreneurs, acquired Predictive Index in 2014. Previously, as clients of the... View Details
Keywords: Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Recruitment; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Change Management; Disruptive Innovation; Digital Platforms; Growth and Development Strategy; Consulting Industry; Service Industry; United States
Applegate, Lynda M., and James Weber. "The Predictive Index." Harvard Business School Case 820-034, October 2019. (Revised August 2020.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
Datar, Srikant, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Siyu Zhang. "Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-113, December 2020.
- 2003
- Article
Do Investors Respond to Analysts’ Forecast Revisions As If Forecast Accuracy Is All That Matters?
By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse
Prior research suggests that investors' response to analyst forecast revisions increases with the analyst's forecast accuracy. We extend this research by examining whether investors appear to extract all of the information that analyst characteristics provide about... View Details
Clement, Michael B., and Senyo Tse. "Do Investors Respond to Analysts’ Forecast Revisions As If Forecast Accuracy Is All That Matters?" Accounting Review 78, no. 1 (2003): 227–249.
- 25 Jul 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?
Keywords: by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger
- October 1993 (Revised August 1996)
- Background Note
Forecasting with Regression Analysis
Provides an example of regression in one of its most important roles. Relating probabilistic forecasts based on past data to decision analysis. View Details
Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Forecasting with Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 894-007, October 1993. (Revised August 1996.)
- 2009
- Case
The Prediction Lover's Handbook
By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
When picking assessment tools to inform better decisions about future paths, executives are faced with a wide variety of options--some of which are well established, while others are in early stages of development. The authors provide an insider's guide to prediction... View Details
Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "The Prediction Lover's Handbook." 2009.
- Article
Human Decisions and Machine Predictions
By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions." Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 1 (February 2018): 237–293.