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- Faculty Publications (89)
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- All HBS Web (208)
- Faculty Publications (89)
- April 2010
- Case
Jones Electrical Distribution
By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder
Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the... View Details
Keywords: Financial Analysis; Forecasting; Financing; Bank Loans; Growth Management; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution Industry
Piper, Thomas R., and Jeffrey DeVolder. "Jones Electrical Distribution." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-179, April 2010.
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Accommodations Industry; Travel Industry; Tourism Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- 2016
- Book
Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development
Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services. University of Chicago Press, 2016.
- April 2007 (Revised April 2008)
- Case
Corrections Corporation of America
This case illustrates a comprehensive valuation of a publicly traded firm specializing in building and managing prisons. Students must assess the firm's strategy and risks, evaluate key financial reports, derive forecasts of future performance, and use these forecasts... View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Buildings and Facilities; For-Profit Firms; Crime and Corruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Valuation; Construction Industry; Public Administration Industry; Service Industry
Riedl, Edward J. "Corrections Corporation of America." Harvard Business School Case 107-071, April 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
- November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
- Case
Science Technology Co.
By: Thomas R. Piper
The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details
Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co." Harvard Business School Case 275-058, November 1974. (Revised May 1994.)
- July – August 2011
- Article
What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors... View Details
Keywords: Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Industry Growth; Judgments; Performance; Valuation; Price; Quality; Innovation and Invention; Organizational Culture; Competency and Skills; Surveys
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria, and George Serafeim. "What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?" Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 4 (July–August 2011).
- 2010
- Working Paper
When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research
Feldman, Emilie Rose, Stuart Gilson, and Belen Villalonga. "When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-102, May 2010.
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Article
Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
- 2003
- Article
The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts
By: Michael B. Clement, Lynn Rees and Edward Swanson
We identify characteristics of financial analysts that have been shown to be associated with relative forecast accuracy in the United States and examine these characteristics within 10 countries. We find that relative forecast accuracy is influenced by years of... View Details
Clement, Michael B., Lynn Rees, and Edward Swanson. "The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts." Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 18, no. 4 (2003): 593–618.
- 2013
- Book
Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy
This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details
Keywords: Governance; Debt Securities; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Financial Statements; Credit; Business Ventures; Strategy; Financial Condition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction
Palepu, Krishna G., and Paul M. Healy. Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases. 5th ed. Cengage Learning, 2013.
- Research Summary
Sell-Side Analysts and Corporate Spinoffs
This study investigates the information content and accuracy of analyst reports written about companies that are about to undertake equity spinoffs. This research is among the first to provide a detailed look at the extent to which analysts evaluate upcoming... View Details
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Price; Performance Evaluation
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." December 2010. (Appendix. Previously titled "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15948.)
- April 1991 (Revised December 1997)
- Case
Southland Corp. (A)
Examines the Thompson's $4.9 billion leveraged buyout of the Southland Corp. in 1987. As the original founders of Southland, the Thompsons were concerned about losing control over the company upon learning of the Belzberg family's acquiring interest. The teaching... View Details
Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Governance Controls; Corporate Governance; Bids and Bidding; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Strategy; Cash Flow
Ruback, Richard S. "Southland Corp. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 291-038, April 1991. (Revised December 1997.)
- Research Summary
Sell-Side Analysts and Legacy Spinoffs
This paper investigates how well analysts do at evaluating spinoffs of legacy businesses vis-à-vis other spinoffs. Analysts appear to be far more conservative in the earnings forecasts they make for legacy businesses and their parents than they are for... View Details
- August 2006 (Revised September 2012)
- Case
Arrow Electronics--The Apollo Acquisition
By: Stephen P. Kaufman
Having already made 10 acquisitions of competitors in the last decade, the CEO of Arrow is evaluating the acquisition of another small competitor to boost sales, become #1 in a niche market segment, and achieve economies of scale. He is struggling with whether the deal... View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Integration; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Strategic Planning; Growth and Development Strategy; Electronics Industry; United States
Kaufman, Stephen P. "Arrow Electronics--The Apollo Acquisition." Harvard Business School Case 607-007, August 2006. (Revised September 2012.)
- December 2007
- Article
The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance
By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez
Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Lisa Koonce, and Thomas Lopez. "The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 44, no. 3 (December 2007): 378–398.
- January 2019
- Case
Arrow Electronics—The Apollo Integration
By: Stephen P. Kaufman
Having already made 10 acquisitions of competitors in the last decade, the CEO and Senior Vice President of Arrow are evaluating the acquisition of another small competitor to boost sales, become #1 in a niche market segment, and achieve economies of scale. They are... View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Integration; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Strategic Planning; Growth and Development Strategy; Electronics Industry; United States
Kaufman, Stephen P. "Arrow Electronics—The Apollo Integration." Harvard Business School Case 619-046, January 2019.
Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements
This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details
- Article
Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering
By: Colleen Giblin, Carey K. Morewedge and Michael I. Norton
The mind wanders, even when people are attempting to make complex decisions. We suggest that such mind wandering—allowing one's thoughts to wander until the "correct" choice comes to mind—can positively impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare... View Details
Giblin, Colleen, Carey K. Morewedge, and Michael I. Norton. "Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering." Art. 598. Frontiers in Psychology 4 (September 6, 2013).