Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(209)
- Faculty Publications (60)
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Supplement
LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details
- January 2018 (Revised January 2020)
- Case
People Analytics at McKinsey
By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Olivia Hull
A private equity–backed fast food chain has hired McKinsey’s new People Analytics group to help it improve performance. As the final client workshop approaches, Associate Partner Alex DiLeonardo ponders the best way to present the team’s findings, especially those that... View Details
Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Customer Relationship Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost Management; Human Resources; Employees; Recruitment; Retention; Selection and Staffing; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Performance Capacity; Performance Efficiency; Performance Evaluation; Performance Improvement; Consulting Industry; Service Industry
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
- October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)
By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson
Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I... View Details
- 2016
- Book
Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development
- April 2016
- Teaching Note
Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016
By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen
This Note was created for the purpose of aiding classroom instructors in the use of the Harvard Business School case, "Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016." As chairman and CEO, David Kenny guided the Weather Company's transformation from a cable television... View Details
- January 2016
- Teaching Note
Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency
By: Michael W. Toffel, Kira Fabrizio and Stephanie van Sice
This case examines a start-up service provider that helps clients improve the energy efficiency of their factories, warehouses, and commercial and office spaces by integrating and installing lighting, heating, and cooling technologies. The company seeks to double... View Details
- Article
The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential
By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton
Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Accommodations Industry; Travel Industry; Tourism Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas
- Article
Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering
By: Colleen Giblin, Carey K. Morewedge and Michael I. Norton
The mind wanders, even when people are attempting to make complex decisions. We suggest that such mind wandering—allowing one's thoughts to wander until the "correct" choice comes to mind—can positively impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare... View Details
- February 2013
- Article
Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews
By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino
Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details
- 2013
- Book
Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy
This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details
- 2012
- Working Paper
~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation
Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
- July – August 2011
- Article
What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors... View Details
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
- August 2010
- Case
Flash Memory, Inc.
By: William E. Fruhan and Craig Stephenson
The CFO of Flash Memory, Inc. prepares the company's investing and financing plans for the next three years. Flash Memory is a small firm that specializes in the design and manufacture of solid state drives (SSDs) and memory modules for the computer and electronics... View Details
- 2010
- Article
The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are
By: A. E. Tenbrunsel, K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni and Max Bazerman
This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and recollection is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details
- 2010
- Working Paper
When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details
- April 2010
- Case
Jones Electrical Distribution
By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder
Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the... View Details
- June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
- Supplement
Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin