Publications

2022
Working Paper

The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation

SSRN

23 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

formulate strategy in large, evolving technical systems. I argue that the points of value creation and value capture in a technical system are the system’s bottlenecks. Bottlenecks arise first as important technical problems to be solved. Once the problem is solved,... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

17 Jun 2010
Working Paper Summaries

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

Keywords: by Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart C. Gilson & Belén Villalonga

12 Oct 1999
Research & Ideas

Rapid Response: Inside the Retailing Revolution

knowledge of what sells and what doesn't, flexible manufacturing capabilities that can respond appropriately to demand, lean rather than fat and costly inventories, and the rapid replenishment of stock. "The old way was to gear planning and production decisions to... View Details

Keywords: by James E. Aisner; Apparel & Accessories; Fashion; Consumer Products; Manufacturing; Retail

June 2021
Article

From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science

13 May 2008
First Look

First Look: May 13, 2008

levels of thinking. Purchase this book: http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/ b01/en/common/item_detail.jhtml?id=2115&referral=2342 Do Buy-Side Analysts Earnings Forecasts Out-Perform Those of the Sell-Side? Authors:Boris... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Research Summary

Overview

Professor MacKay combines theory and measurement to deliver new insights about price competition and consumer preferences. In current and published papers, his research addresses how strategic pricing decisions may be influenced by algorithms, long-term contracts,... View Details

Keywords: Price Effects; Competition Policy; Algorithms; Online Competition; Dynamic Pricing; Beliefs; Preferences; Preference Heterogeneity; Preference Measurement; Competition; Microeconomics; Strategy; Integration; Cooperation

Research Summary

Overview

By: Antonio Moreno

One major theme of Professor Moreno’s research has been retail channel integration and so-called “omnichannel retail.” In omnichannel retail, retailers provide their customers with a shopping experience that may involve different channels in a way that aims to be... View Details

19 May 2015
First Look

First Look: May 19

discrete regime shifts in 1977 and 2000. The increase in bond risks after 1977 is attributed primarily to a shift in monetary policy towards a more anti-inflationary stance, while the more recent decrease in bond risks after 2000 is attributed to a renewed focus on... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit

April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

11 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Article

Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan

To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Theory; Behavior

21 Aug 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018

social media information and 5.73% when using social media information is used. In both cases, this significantly improves the accuracy of the company's internal forecasts (a MAPE of 11.97%). Combining these... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

March 2007
Article

Authority, Risk, and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions inside Firms

By: Julie Wulf

I show that performance incentives vary by decision-making authority of division managers. For division managers with broader authority, i.e., those designated as corporate officers, both the sensitivity of pay to global performance measures and the relative importance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Globalization; Measurement and Metrics; Status and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Divisions

2018
Working Paper

Measuring Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

We demonstrate that data from digital platforms such as Yelp have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification, both by providing data in close to real time (i.e., nowcasting and forecasting) and by providing additional context about how the local... View Details

Keywords: Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

July – August 2011
Article

The Paradox of Samsung's Rise

By: Tarun Khanna, Jaeyong Song and Kyungmook Lee

Twenty years ago, few people would have predicted that Samsung could transform itself from a low-cost original equipment manufacturer to a world leader in R&D, marketing, and design, with a brand more valuable than Pepsi, Nike, or American Express. Fewer still would... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Design; Research and Development; Marketing; Business Processes; Brands and Branding; System; Globalized Markets and Industries; Transformation; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Production; Quality; China; India; Turkey

Purchase

06 Jun 2016
Research & Ideas

Skills and Behaviors that Make Entrepreneurs Successful

understanding of the entrepreneurial leader. The program combines self-assessments of their skills and behaviors by entrepreneurs themselves with evaluations of them by peers, friends, and employees. Along the way the data is also... View Details

Keywords: by HBS Working Knowledge

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction