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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Do Active Funds Do Better in What They Trade?

By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
We develop two new, simple measures to quantify active fund decisions at the individual position level. The intuition is to separate passive rebalancing induced by flows and position changes from active rebalancing decisions. We find that additive active rebalancing --... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Financial Management
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  • December 2008
  • Article

Style Investing and Institutional Investors

By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo
This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
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  • 2015
  • Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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  • Research Summary

The Design of Mechanisms and Institutions

Professor Coughlan's research also investigates the design of public policy and collective choice institutions. His research publications have applied game theory, mechanism design, and laboratory experiments to explore incentives and outcomes under alternative legal,... View Details
  • 12 Jul 2016
  • First Look

July 12, 2016

Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • June 2021
  • Article

From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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  • 2002
  • Other Unpublished Work

Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
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  • 23 Oct 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler Abstract—Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • Article

Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan
To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details
Keywords: Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Theory; Behavior
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  • Article

The Best of Both Worlds: Integrating Conscious and Unconscious Thought Best Solves Complex Decisions

Two studies address the debate over whether conscious or unconscious mental processes best handle complex decisions. According to Unconscious Thought Theory (Dijksterhuis & Nordgren, 2006), both modes of thinking have particular advantages: conscious thought can follow... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Information; Knowledge Management; Management Skills; Management Style; Measurement and Metrics; Success; Research; Cognition and Thinking; Personal Characteristics; Perception
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  • 2011
  • Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States
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  • 19 Sep 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, September 19

lead examples show how effective market design can encourage participation, reduce gaming, and aggregate information, in order to improve liquidity, efficiency, and equity in markets. We also discuss a number of fruitful applications of... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

of small firms. See Robin’s other research here , Benjamin’s other research here , and David’s other research here . More Info Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations By: Pedro Bordalo , Nicola Gennaioli , Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer SEP 2020 What does... View Details
  • 25 Jan 2010
  • Research & Ideas

A Macroeconomic View of the Current Economy

economy as a whole. Micro is about firms and individual actors and how they behave; macro is about aggregate performance of the economy: overall GDP, trade surplus or deficit, inflation. In principle, we should be able to get rid of the... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Research - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

Macroeconomic Expectations By: Pedro Bordalo , Nicola Gennaioli , Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer SEP 2020 What does predictability of forecast errors teach us about how market participants form expectations? The authors study the rationality... View Details
  • Web

Harvard Business School

league-wide risk management program to insure all property and casualty risks across the league through a new captive insurance company, improved the budgeting and financial reporting of MLB's central offices, and implemented an improved club financial reporting and... View Details
  • 12 Jul 2010
  • Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide

Demand With total revenue likely to fluctuate much more than in the past, managers must be ready to take anticipatory action. Consequently, they should improve their ability to forecast aggregate demand.... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Retail; Auto
  • 01 Jul 2014
  • First Look

First Look: July 1

returns of 0.86, whereas the popular factor-based expected return models have either an insignificant or a significantly negative association with future returns. In supplemental analyses, we show that these forecasts are also informative... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 09 Dec 2015
  • Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

with minimal impact on aggregate sales quantity. While this research focused specifically on a flash sales setting, they believe it could be useful for any retailer that needs to make pricing decisions for new products before the selling... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories