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  • December 2007
  • Article

The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance

By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez
Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
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  • October 2018
  • Article

The Operational Value of Social Media Information

By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang
While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media
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  • 24 Oct 2006
  • First Look

First Look: October 24, 2006

  Working PapersManaging Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Abstract To date, little research has been done on managing the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2014
  • Article

The Promise of Prediction Contests

By: Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on... View Details
Keywords: Prediction; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 2010
  • Working Paper

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research
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  • Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
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  • Research Summary

Sell-Side Analysts and Corporate Spinoffs

This study investigates the information content and accuracy of analyst reports written about companies that are about to undertake equity spinoffs.  This research is among the first to provide a detailed look at the extent to which analysts evaluate upcoming... View Details
  • Teaching Interest

Overview

Paul is primarily interested in teaching data science to management students through the case method. This includes technical topics (programming and statistics) as well as higher-level management issues (digital transformation, data governance, etc.) As a research... View Details
Keywords: A/B Testing; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Algorithm; Algorithm Bias; Algorithmic Bias; Algorithmic Fairness; Algorithms; Analytics; Application Program Interface; Artificial Intelligence; Causality; Causal Inference; Computing; Computers; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Architecture; Data As A Service; Data Centers; Data Governance; Data Labeling; Data Management; Data Manipulation; Data Mining; Data Ownership; Data Privacy; Data Protection; Data Science; Data Science And Analytics Management; Data Scientists; Data Security; Data Sharing; Data Strategy; Data Visualization; Database; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Data-driven Operations; Datathon; Economics Of AI; Economics Of Innovation; Economics Of Information System; Economics Of Science; Forecast; Forecast Accuracy; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Information Technology; Machine Learning; Machine Learning Models; Prediction; Prediction Error; Predictive Analytics; Predictive Models; Analysis; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Applications and Software; Digital Transformation; Information Management; Digital Strategy; Technology Adoption
  • Research Summary

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting.

Forecasting firm-level sales is a key activity in top-down planning in most organizations. In the retailing industry, firms can use inventory and price to stimulate demand. Hence, standard time series methods for sales forecasting can be improved by incorporating... View Details
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment

By: Zengquan Li, T.J. Wong and Gwen Yu
When emerging market firms raise external capital, they face a tradeoff where greater transparency may lead to a lower cost of capital but at the cost of revealing proprietary information in their relational business practices. We find that firms overcome this... View Details
Keywords: Emerging Market; Financial Analysts; Information; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Governance
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  • 21 Aug 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018

We implement a variety of machine learning methods to forecast daily sales. We find that using social media information results in statistically significant improvements in the out-of-sample accuracy of the... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko
We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details
Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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  • December 2021
  • Article

Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 01 Dec 2023
  • News

Thinking Ahead

As we wind down 2023, there’s talk everywhere of generative AI and how it will fundamentally alter the world as we know it; but how does that translate for your corner of the business world? Is TikTok something you need to take seriously? (Is it time to dance?) We... View Details
Keywords: Julia Hanna; Illustrations by Chris Gash; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information
  • Web

Online Business Analytics Course | HBS Online

sample statistics and apply the properties of the normal distribution Calculate confidence intervals to estimate the accuracy of statistics 8 hrs Module 3 Hypothesis Testing Quantify the evidence in favor of or against your hypothesis in... View Details
  • 03 Oct 2005
  • Research & Ideas

The Box Office Power of Stars

relatively good forecasts of actual box office returns. In fact, the forecasting accuracy is what makes it such a valuable research setting. I used HSX to measure how the... View Details
Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Entertainment & Recreation; Motion Pictures & Video
  • 11 Apr 2024
  • News

Mission Control

Subscribe on iTunes Subscribe on Spotify More Skydeck episodes Hi, this is Dan Morrell, host of Skydeck. By the time Peter Platzer (MBA 2002) was a teenager, he knew he wanted to be a physicist—and he was fascinated by space, eagerly engrossed in space-time diagrams... View Details
  • 07 Aug 2000
  • Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing

Retailers can significantly improve forecast accuracy simply by updating their predictions based on early sales data, tracking the accuracy of their forecasts, getting product... View Details
Keywords: by Marshall L. Fisher, Ananth Raman & Anna Sheen McClelland; Retail
  • 09 Jan 2014
  • Research & Ideas

Excerpt: ’Fortune Tellers’

National Bureau of Economic Research) and popularize new statistical tools, like leading indicators and indexes of industrial production. On the other hand, though all forecasters dressed their predictions in the garb of rationality (with... View Details
Keywords: by Walter A. Friedman
  • 18 Oct 2004
  • Research & Ideas

The Bias of Wall Street Analysts

should be noted that the trick to measuring the analysts' optimism is to measure the signed accuracy of the forecasts. To do this, we calculate a forecast error of all analysts' forecasts. For example, for a... View Details
Keywords: by Ann Cullen; Financial Services