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June 2024
Article

Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market

By: Wenxin Du, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy and Clara Vega

We investigate how market participants price and manage counterparty credit risk using confidential trade repository data on single-name credit default swap (CDS) transactions. We find that counterparty risk has a modest impact on the pricing of CDS contracts but a... View Details

Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Market Participation; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Financial Markets; Credit

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May 2024 (Revised March 2025)
Case

Hakluyt: From Corporate Intelligence to Trusted Advisors

By: Joseph B. Fuller and Lena Duchene

Established in 1995 by a group of ex-British intelligence officers, Hakluyt & Company (Hakluyt) was a corporate advisory firm that generated insights by leveraging a unique blend of internal expertise and a global network of well-connected individuals. Since 2019, the... View Details

April 2024 (Revised August 2024)
Teaching Note

Silicon Valley Bank: Gone in 36 Hours

By: Jung Koo Kang, Krishna G. Palepu and Charles C.Y. Wang

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 124-001. View Details

Keywords: Accounting Standards; Bank Runs; Financial Accounting; Financial Reporting; Social Media; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Investment Portfolio; Interest Rates; Debt Securities; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Statements; Risk Management; Financial Services Industry; United States

April 2024
Article

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter

We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details

Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

Spring 2024
Article

The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo

As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Crisis; Assets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Condition; Banking Industry

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2024
Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting

March 2024 (Revised July 2024)
Case

AMC: The Zero Revenue Case

By: C. Fritz Foley and Donal O'Cofaigh

The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic put theatre company AMC’s already perilous financial situation under even further strain. The company’s high levels of debt resulted in a monthly cash-burn which left it facing an imminent Chapter-11 filing in the absence of... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Public Equity; Stock Shares; Health Pandemics; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

March 2024 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Masterpiece for the Masses: The First Art Exchange ARTEX

By: Lauren Cohen, Anastasiya Siroochenko (Siro) and Sophia Pan

Yassir Benjelloun-Touimi, CEO of ARTEX, aspired to marry the world of art and finance. Hoping to promote transparent, fractionalized ownership of renowned artwork, the founder had spent years contemplating the birth of an art stock market. This exchange would allow... View Details

February 2024 (Revised February 2024)
Case

CLSA: Integrating ESG in Stock Valuation

By: Shirley Lu, Aaron Yoon and Billy Chan

In 2023, a senior financial analyst at the Hong Kong-based stock brokerage firm CLSA was surprised to see that, based on his calculations, the financial impact from climate risks on a major Indian cement manufacturing company’s projected earnings could be massive.... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Corporate Governance; Analysis; Stocks; Valuation; Environmental Sustainability; Financial Services Industry; Financial Services Industry; Hong Kong; China; India; Asia

January 2024
Supplement

Accounting Red Flags or Red Herrings at Catalent? (B)

By: Joseph Pacelli, ZeSean Ali and Tom Quinn

GlassHouse Research identified accounting red flags at Catalent. Fiat Lux Partners countered most of GlassHouse’s claims. Who was right? This update explores the aftermath of the short seller duel. View Details

December 18, 2023
Article

Lessons from Building a Payment Business in Africa

By: Ranjay Gulati

Keywords: Emerging Markets; Leadership; Partners and Partnerships; Information Infrastructure; Credit Cards; Financial Services Industry

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December 2023
Article

Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Wenhao Li

We document a regime change in the Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from net short to net long Treasury bonds. We construct “net-long” and “net-short” curves that account for balance sheet and financing costs, and show that actual... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Financial Markets; Financial Crisis; Asset Pricing

November 2023
Article

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details

Keywords: Term Premium; Exchange Rate; Currency Exchange Rate; Bonds

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2023
Working Paper

The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom

By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin

This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details

Keywords: Institutional Investing; Financial Markets; Price; Financial Instruments

October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

GameStop: Social Media Finds a Cheat Code (A)

By: Joseph Pacelli and Sarah Mehta

This case covers the events leading up to the 2021 GameStop short squeeze. Using GameStop as an illustrative example, the case explores the rise in retail trading, increased financial information sharing on social media, and the gamification of investing enabled by... View Details

Keywords: Value; Stocks; Financial Markets; Social Media; Investment; Applications and Software; Financial Services Industry; United States

October 2023
Article

Stock Market Stimulus

By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler

We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; COVID-19 Pandemic; Fiscal Stimulus; Stimulus Payments; Impact; Stocks; System Shocks; Price; Spending; United States; Hong Kong

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September 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Case

Icahn Enterprises: Ponzi Scheme or Sound Investment

By: Aiyesha Dey, Jonas Heese and James Weber

Icahn Enterprises, a publicly traded limited partnership founded and operated by famed activist investor Carl Icahn, had earned above market returns for over a decade. Between 2018 and early 2023, it had a compound annual return of 31%. Icahn invested in undervalued... View Details

Keywords: Stock Shares; Investment Return; Business Model; Valuation; Financial Services Industry

September 2023
Case

Diamond Standard

By: Lauren H. Cohen, Zhaoheng Gong and Grace Headinger

Cormac Kinney, Founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, was on a mission to transform the U.S. diamond market through unlocking the precious gems as market-traded assets. As a serial FinTech entrepreneur, he hoped to add an additional service to his vault: Carats. The... View Details

September 2023
Article

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon

We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and... View Details

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2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

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