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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (739)

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      • November 2024
      • Article

      Perceptions About Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
      • 2024
      • Article

      Political Polarization and Finance

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and... View Details
      Keywords: Government and Politics; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Governance
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Polarization and Finance." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 413–434.
      • November 5, 2024
      • Article

      The International Empirics of Management

      By: Daniela Scur, Scott Ohlmacher, John Van Reenen, Morten Bennedsen, Nick Bloom, Ali Choudhary, Lucia Foster, Jesse Groenewegen, Arti Grover, Sjoerd Hardeman, Leonardo Iacovone, Ryo Kambayashi, Marie-Christine Laible, Renata Lemos, Hongbin Li, Andrea Linarello, Mika Maliranta, Denis Medvedev, Charlotte Meng, John Miles Touya, Natalia Mandirola, Roope Ohlsbom, Atsushi Ohyama, Megha Patnaik, Mariana Pereira-López, Raffaella Sadun, Tatsuro Senga, Franklin Qian and Florian Zimmermann
      A country’s national income broadly depends on the quantity and quality of workers and capital. But how well these factors are managed within and between firms may be a key determinant of a country’s productivity and its GDP. Although social scientists have long... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Productivity; Economy; Management Practices and Processes
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      Scur, Daniela, Scott Ohlmacher, John Van Reenen, Morten Bennedsen, Nick Bloom, Ali Choudhary, Lucia Foster, Jesse Groenewegen, Arti Grover, Sjoerd Hardeman, Leonardo Iacovone, Ryo Kambayashi, Marie-Christine Laible, Renata Lemos, Hongbin Li, Andrea Linarello, Mika Maliranta, Denis Medvedev, Charlotte Meng, John Miles Touya, Natalia Mandirola, Roope Ohlsbom, Atsushi Ohyama, Megha Patnaik, Mariana Pereira-López, Raffaella Sadun, Tatsuro Senga, Franklin Qian, and Florian Zimmermann. "The International Empirics of Management." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121, no. 45 (November 5, 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Empirical Guidance: Data Processing and Analysis with Applications in Stata, R, and Python

      By: Melissa Ouellet and Michael W. Toffel
      This paper describes a range of best practices to compile and analyze datasets, and includes some examples in Stata, R, and Python. It is meant to serve as a reference for those getting started in econometrics, and especially those seeking to conduct data analyses in... View Details
      Keywords: Empirical Methods; Empirical Operations; Statistical Methods And Machine Learning; Statistical Interferences; Research Analysts; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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      Ouellet, Melissa, and Michael W. Toffel. "Empirical Guidance: Data Processing and Analysis with Applications in Stata, R, and Python." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-010, August 2024.
      • September 2024 (Revised March 2025)
      • Case

      Burn the Gondolas? Venice, the Ghetto, and the Seasons of Capitalism

      By: Sophus A. Reinert, Charlotte Robertson and Robert Fredona
      This case uses the history of Venice—from the driving of the first pylons in the lagoon to the abdication of the city’s last doge, across the ages of Marco Polo and Vivaldi—to explore the invention and global diffusion of capitalism, as well as the cyclical rise and... View Details
      Keywords: Transformation; History; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Economic Systems; Italy
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      Reinert, Sophus A., Charlotte Robertson, and Robert Fredona. "Burn the Gondolas? Venice, the Ghetto, and the Seasons of Capitalism." Harvard Business School Case 725-006, September 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Article

      Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts

      By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler
      Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S. and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine learning models that can... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Employment
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      Bansak, Kirk, Elisabeth Paulson, and Dominik Rothenhäusler. "Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts." Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 27th (2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Creditor-on-Creditor Violence and Secured Debt Dynamics

      By: Samuel Antill, Neng Wang and Zhaoli Jiang
      Secured lenders have recently demanded a new condition in distressed debt restructurings: competing secured lenders must lose priority. We model the implications of this “creditor-on-creditor violence” trend. In our dynamic model, secured lenders enjoy higher priority... View Details
      Keywords: Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Conflict and Resolution
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      Antill, Samuel, Neng Wang, and Zhaoli Jiang. "Creditor-on-Creditor Violence and Secured Debt Dynamics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32823, August 2024. (Reject & Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
      • 2024
      • Article

      Crucibles, Multiple Sensitive Periods, and Career Progression

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Sunasir Dutta, Hise O. Gibson and Eric Lin
      We study the effects of crucible experiences along multiple sensitive periods on career progression. While prior literature has hinted that individuals can be imprinted during multiple sensitive periods, not just during the early career, there has been scant attention... View Details
      Keywords: Military Service; Personal Development and Career; Transformation; Power and Influence; Learning; Human Capital
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Sunasir Dutta, Hise O. Gibson, and Eric Lin. "Crucibles, Multiple Sensitive Periods, and Career Progression." Academy of Management Proceedings (2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Rise of Alternatives

      By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane
      Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Begenau, Juliane, Pauline Liang, and Emil Siriwardane. "The Rise of Alternatives." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-016, August 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Digital Platforms 2.0: Learnings, Opportunities, and Challenges

      By: Shrabastee Banerjee, Ishita Chakraborty, Hana Choi, Hannes Datta, Remi Daviet, Chiara Farronato, Minkyung Kim, Anja Lambrecht, Puneet Manchanda, Aniko Oery, Ananya Sen, Marshall W Van Alstyne, Prasad Vana, Kenneth C Wilbur, Xu Zhang and Bobby Zhou
      Platform-based digital ecosystems form the backbone of our interactions with the Internet. Over the past decade, digital ecosystems have witnessed significant growth, both in terms of industry footprint and academic research. Yet, the challenges associated with their... View Details
      Keywords: Digital Platforms; Technology Adoption; E-commerce; Market Design
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      Banerjee, Shrabastee, Ishita Chakraborty, Hana Choi, Hannes Datta, Remi Daviet, Chiara Farronato, Minkyung Kim, Anja Lambrecht, Puneet Manchanda, Aniko Oery, Ananya Sen, Marshall W Van Alstyne, Prasad Vana, Kenneth C Wilbur, Xu Zhang, and Bobby Zhou. "Digital Platforms 2.0: Learnings, Opportunities, and Challenges." Working Paper, June 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Makes Players Pay? An Empirical Investigation of In-Game Lotteries

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
      In 2020, gamers spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, lotteries of virtual items in video games. Paid loot boxes are contentious. Game producers argue that loot boxes complement the gameplay and expenditures on loot boxes reflect players’ enjoyment of the game.... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Ethics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Video Game Industry
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "What Makes Players Pay? An Empirical Investigation of In-Game Lotteries." Columbia Business School Research Paper Series, No. 4355019, June 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization

      By: Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
      This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details
      Keywords: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Multi-task Learning; Representation Learning; Personalization; Promotion; Deep Learning; Field Experiments; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customization and Personalization
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-076, June 2024.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Investor Influence on Media Coverage: Evidence from Venture Capital-Backed Startups

      By: Brian K. Baik and Albert Shin
      We examine whether and how investors influence media coverage of their private portfolio companies. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design, we find that media coverage of startups increases significantly following venture capital (VC) investment. The effect... View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Media; Reputation; Information
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      Baik, Brian K., and Albert Shin. "Investor Influence on Media Coverage: Evidence from Venture Capital-Backed Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-073, May 2024. (Revised April 2025.)
      • June, 2024
      • Book Review

      Debunking Immigration Myths: A Review Essay of 'Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success' (PublicAffairs, 2022) by Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan

      By: Marco Tabellini
      This essay reviews Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success by Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan. This elegantly written book, highly accessible to both economists and non-economists, is a must-read for anyone interested in the topic of... View Details
      Keywords: Immigration; History; United States
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      Tabellini, Marco. "Debunking Immigration Myths: A Review Essay of 'Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success' (PublicAffairs, 2022) by Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan." Journal of Economic Literature 62, no. 2 (June, 2024): 739–760.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation

      By: Zeyang Jia, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      We introduce the "cram" method, a general and efficient approach to simultaneous learning and evaluation using a generic machine learning (ML) algorithm. In a single pass of batched data, the proposed method repeatedly trains an ML algorithm and tests its empirical... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning
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      Jia, Zeyang, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation." Working Paper, March 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits

      By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
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      Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
      • March 2024
      • Article

      What Makes Groups Emotional

      By: Amit Goldenberg
      When people experience emotions in a group, their emotions tend to have stronger intensity and to last longer. Why is that? This question has occupied thinkers throughout history, and with the use of digital media it is even more pressing today. Historically, attention... View Details
      Keywords: Groups and Teams; Emotions; Cognition and Thinking; Interpersonal Communication
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      Goldenberg, Amit. "What Makes Groups Emotional." Perspectives on Psychological Science 19, no. 2 (March 2024): 489–502.
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation

      By: Hanne Collins, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal and Alison Wood Brooks
      Across all domains of human social life, positive perceptions of conversational listening (i.e., feeling heard) predict well-being, professional success, and interpersonal flourishing. But a fundamental question remains: Are perceptions of listening accurate? Prior... View Details
      Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Behavior; Perception
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      Collins, Hanne, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 153, no. 2 (February 2024): 473–494.
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Diversification as an Adaptive Learning Process: An Empirical Study of General-Purpose and Market-Specific Technological Know-How in New Market Entry

      By: Dominika Kinga Randle and Gary P. Pisano
      An enduring trait of modern corporations is their propensity to diversify into multiple lines of business. Penrosian theories conceptualize diversification as a strategy to exploit a firm’s fungible, yet “untradeable”, resources and point to redeployment of... View Details
      Keywords: Diversification; Market Entry and Exit; Assets
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      Randle, Dominika Kinga, and Gary P. Pisano. "Diversification as an Adaptive Learning Process: An Empirical Study of General-Purpose and Market-Specific Technological Know-How in New Market Entry." Special Issue on Knowledge Resources and Heterogeneity of Entrants within and across Industries. Industrial and Corporate Change 33, no. 1 (February 2024): 238–252.
      • Winter 2024
      • Article

      Is Pay Transparency Good?

      By: Zoë B. Cullen
      Countries around the world are enacting pay transparency policies to combat pay discrimination. Since 2000, 71 percent of OECD countries have done so. Most are enacting transparency horizontally, revealing pay between coworkers doing similar work within a firm. While... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Wages; Knowledge Sharing; Job Design and Levels; Negotiation; Performance Productivity; Compensation and Benefits; Motivation and Incentives
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      Cullen, Zoë B. "Is Pay Transparency Good?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 38, no. 1 (Winter 2024): 153–180.
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