Econometrics - Publications - Faculty & Research

April 2025
Article

Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency

By: Samuel Antill and Christopher Clayton

We model the optimal resolution of insolvent firms in general equilibrium. Collateral-constrained banks lend to (i) solvent firms to finance investments and (ii) distressed firms to avoid liquidation. Liquidations create negative fire-sale externalities. Liquidations... View Details

Keywords: Insolvent Firms; Government Intervention; Liquidation; Econometric Models; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Policy

2018
Working Paper

How Scheduling Can Bias Quality Assessment: Evidence from Food Safety Inspections

By: Maria Ibanez and Michael W. Toffel

Many production processes are subject to inspection to ensure they meet quality, safety, and environmental standards imposed by companies and regulators. Inspection accuracy is critical to inspections being a useful input to assessing risks, allocating quality... View Details

Keywords: Assessment; Bias; Inspection; Scheduling; Econometric Analysis; Empirical Research; Regulation; Health; Food; Safety; Quality; Performance Consistency; Performance Evaluation; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry

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Research Summary

Overview

Downstream businesses that utilize global suppliers frequently use auditing programs to monitor their suppliers’ working conditions and are often deployed to address reputational concerns associated with procuring from unregulated suppliers. Despite their widespread... View Details

Keywords: Audit Quality; Remote Work; Outsourcing; Econometric Analysis; Switching Costs; Service Operations; Performance Effectiveness; Retail Industry; Service Industry

June 2020
Article

How Scheduling Can Bias Quality Assessment: Evidence from Food Safety Inspections

By: Maria Ibanez and Michael W. Toffel

Accuracy and consistency are critical for inspections to be an effective, fair, and useful tool for assessing risks, quality, and suppliers—and for making decisions based on those assessments. We examine how inspector schedules could introduce bias that erodes... View Details

Keywords: Assessment; Bias; Inspection; Scheduling; Econometric Analysis; Empirical Research; Regulation; Health; Food; Safety; Quality; Performance Consistency; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

August 2020
Technical Note

Comparing Two Groups: Sampling and t-Testing

By: Iavor I Bojinov, Chiara Farronato, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Willy C. Shih and Michael W. Toffel

This note describes sampling and t-tests, two fundamental statistical concepts. View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Surveys; Mathematical Methods

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August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

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By: Ayelet Israeli

Professor Israeli utilizes econometric methods and field experiments to study data driven decision making in marketing context. Her research focuses on data-driven marketing, with an emphasis on how businesses can leverage their own data, customer data, and market data... View Details

Keywords: Channel Management; Pricing; Pricing Policies; Online Marketing; E-commerce; Analytics; Econometrics; Field Experiments; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; Value Of Data

2020
Article

A Practical Approach to Sales Compensation: What Do We Know Now? What Should We Know in the Future?

By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Niladri B. Syam

Personal selling represents one of the most important elements in the marketing mix, and appropriate management of the sales force is vital to achieving the organization’s objectives. Among the various instruments of sales management, compensation plays a pivotal role... View Details

Keywords: Sales Compensation; Sales Management; Sales Strategy; Principal-agent Theory; Structural Econometrics; Field Experiments; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits; Motivation and Incentives; AI and Machine Learning

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19 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations

Keywords: by Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, and Hillel Rapoport

Teaching Interest

Overview

Paul has been a teaching assistant for two years in the 2nd-year graduate level econometrics course, working with Professors Guido Imbens and Alberto Abadie. Additionally, he has been a TA in the undergraduate course "Household Finance." View Details

Research Summary

The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details

Research Summary

The Economics of Enterprise IT

By: Shane M. Greenstein

Why do some organizations adopt new information systems while others do not? Why do some face high costs while others do not? Professor Greenstein has been pursuing this stream of research throughout his career, analyzing the factors shaping the costs of acquiring... View Details

Research Summary

Evolution of Competitive Advantage

Anita M. McGahan is studying the evolution of competitive advantage among firms in a cross section of industries. She is particularly interested in the structural conditions that enable firms to develop an enduring competitive advantage in new markets. McGahan has... View Details

Research Summary

Research overview

The growth of consumer review websites over the past decade has revolutionized the way in which consumers learn about product quality. The centrality of information to consumer welfare has also been underscored in public policy debates, where quality disclosure has... View Details

11 Aug 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

Keywords: by Robert F. Engle & Emil N. Siriwardane

2011
Article

How Should the Graduate Economics Core be Changed?

By: Vincent Pons, Jose Miguel Abito, Katarina Borovickova, Hays Golden, Jacob Goldin, Matthew A. Masten, Miguel Morin, Alexander Poirier, Israel Romem, Tyler Williams and Chamna Yoon

The authors present suggestions by graduate students from a range of economics departments for improving the first-year core sequence in economics. The students identified a number of elements that should be added to the core: more training in building microeconomic... View Details

Keywords: Design Of Core; Graduate Economics; Higher Education; Economics; Curriculum and Courses

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2014
Book

Los Buenos Tiempos Son Éstos: Los efectos de la incursión de la banca extranjera en México después de un siglo de crisis bancarias [These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System]

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

This book is the Spanish edition of our award winning paper "These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18713, January 2013. The book examines the effects of foreign bank entry into Mexico. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Banks And Banking; Mexico; Commercial Banking; Foreign Direct Investment; Competition; Financial Markets; Banking Industry; Mexico

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Article

How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?

By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang

We explain when and how staggered difference-in-differences regression estimators, commonly applied to assess the impact of policy changes, are biased. These biases are likely to be relevant for a large portion of research settings in finance, accounting, and law that... View Details

Keywords: Difference In Differences; Staggered Difference-in-differences Designs; Generalized Difference-in-differences; Dynamic Treatment Effects; Mathematical Methods