Dynamic Causal Effects - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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13 Aug 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Selling to a Moving Target: Dynamic Marketing Effects in U.S. Presidential Elections

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung & Lingling Zhang

2025
Working Paper

Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning

By: Liangzong Ma, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant challenges.... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Policy; Deep Reinforcement Learning; Representation Learning; Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Foreign Direct Investment; Analytics and Data Science

2023
Working Paper

Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods

2022
Working Paper

Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle

Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina

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22 Oct 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

Keywords: by Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

2020
Working Paper

The Dynamic Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Chinese Manufacturing Firms

By: Jaya Y. Wen, Haichao Fan, Yu Liu and Nancy Qian

October, 2022
Article

The Economic Dynamics of Competing Power Generation Sources

By: Gunther Glenk and Stefan Reichelstein

Competing power generation sources have experienced considerable shifts in both their revenue potential and their costs in recent years. Here we introduce the concept of Levelized Profit Margins (LPM) to capture the changing unit economics of both intermittent and... View Details

2019
Working Paper

The Comprehensive Effects of a Digital Paywall Sales Strategy

By: Doug J. Chung, Ho Kim and Reo Song

This paper explores the multiple and comprehensive effects of a digital paywall sales strategy, an increasingly common means of go-to-market for media firms. Specifically, we examine the effects of a digital paywall on a media firm’s two sources of income—subscription... View Details

Keywords: Digital Paywall; Demand Substitution; Spillover Effect; Synthetic Control; Sales; Strategy; Media; Newspapers; Publishing Industry

March 2022
Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods

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2009
Article

The Dynamics of Silencing Conflict

By: Leslie Perlow and Nelson Repenning

In many organizations, when people perceive a difference with another they often do not fully express themselves. Despite creating innumerable problems, silencing conflict is a persistent phenomenon. While the antecedents of acts of silence are well documented, little... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Management Style; Conflict Management; Societal Protocols

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March 2024
Article

Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya

By: Livia Alfonsi, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová and Edward Miguel

We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over 20 years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that... View Details

Keywords: Religion; Human Capital; Developing Countries and Economies; Welfare; Kenya

30 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim, and Byoung G. Park

Article

How Market Power Affects Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Inventory Fluctuations at Car Dealerships

By: Ayelet Israeli, Fiona Scott-Morton, Jorge Silva-Risso and Florian Zettelmeyer

This paper investigates empirically the effect of market power on dynamic pricing in the presence of inventories. Our setting is the auto retail industry; we analyze how automotive dealerships adjust prices to inventory levels under varying degrees of market power. We... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Pricing; Market Power; Pricing; Price Discrimination; Inventory Production; Marketing; Price; Competitive Strategy; Auto Industry; Retail Industry

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Winter 2021
Article

Can Staggered Boards Improve Value? Causal Evidence from Massachusetts

By: Robert Daines, Shelley Xin Li and Charles C.Y. Wang

We study the effect of staggered boards (SBs) using a quasi-experiment: a 1990 law that imposed an SB on all Massachusetts-incorporated firms. The law led to an increase in Tobin's Q, investment in CAPEX and R&D, patents, higher-quality patented innovations, and... View Details

Keywords: Staggered Board; Entrenchment; Life-cycle; Tobin's Q; Innovation; Profitability; Investor Composition; Governing and Advisory Boards; Investment; Innovation and Invention; Institutional Investing; Value

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November 2021
Article

The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training

By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Byoung G. Park

This study provides a comprehensive model of an agent’s behavior in response to multiple sales management instruments, including compensation, recruiting/termination, and training. The model on agents’ behavior takes into account many of the key elements that... View Details

Keywords: Salesforce Management; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Compensation and Benefits; Resignation and Termination; Training; Behavior; Analysis

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2009
Article

Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model

By: P. Caprariello, A.J.C. Cuddy and S.T. Fiske

The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices (Fiske et al., 2002). No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both... View Details

Keywords: Competency and Skills; Mathematical Methods; Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Prejudice and Bias; Status and Position; Culture; Competition

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2013
Working Paper

Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention

By: Mark Seasholes, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li and Albert J. Menkveld

This paper studies the role that limited attention and inefficient risk sharing play in stock price deviations from the efficient prices at horizons from one day to one month. We expand the Due (2010) slow-moving capital model to analyze multiple groups of investors... View Details

Keywords: Transitory Volatility; Limited Attention; Individuals; Market Makers; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Volatility

September 2006
Article

Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide

By: Matthew C. Weinzierl and N. Gregory Mankiw

This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to examine the extent to which a tax cut pays for itself through higher economic growth. The model yields simple expressions for the steady-state feedback effect of a tax cut. The feedback is surprisingly large: for... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Estimation; Taxation; Economic Growth

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Research Summary

Industry Dynamics Following Competitive Shocks

Robert E. Kennedy and Pankaj Ghemawat are using industrial organization theory to study industrial development in countries that have undergone major competitive shocks. Their goal is to develop a set of hypotheses regarding how industry factors effect change in entry... View Details

2023
Working Paper

An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits

By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov

Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods

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