Publications

Research Summary

Does the Adoption of Rolling Forecasts Improve Planning?

This field study investigates the consequences of adopting rolling forecasts on organizational planning. Using quarterly product-line forecasted and realized sales data from several business units of a multinational biotechnology supplier, I find that subsequent to the... View Details

07 Jan 2019
Research & Ideas

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

Grushka-Cockayne, that executives should adopt a similar approach when it comes to using probability forecasts of business-critical issues; for example, the likelihood that product demand will increase by a... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Air Transportation; Transportation

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

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Winter 2022
Article

Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton

The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business

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September 2002
Case

Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand

By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg

Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry

July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
Case

Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)

By: David Collis and Haisley Wert

In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Renewables; Forecasting Demand; Strategy; Energy; Climate Change; Resource Allocation; Corporate Strategy; Investment Activism; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Energy Industry

18 Jul 2023
Research & Ideas

Will Global Demand for Oil Peak This Decade?

Is the globe’s thirst for oil finally topping out? A major international energy watcher says yes, predicting last month that demand for global oil for transport will peak around 2026, plateau for all uses by 2028, and possibly hit a zenith by the end of the decade.... View Details

Keywords: by Alvin Powell, Harvard Gazette; Energy; Industrial Products; Auto; Green Technology

October 1992 (Revised September 1993)
Case

L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

L.L. Bean must make stocking decisions on thousands of items sold through its catalogs. In many cases, orders must be placed with vendors twelve or more weeks before a catalog lands on a customer's doorstep, and commitments cannot be changed thereafter. As a result,... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Cost Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Demand and Consumers; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Retail Industry; United States

February 2019
Case

Miroglio Fashion (A)

By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane

Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry

October 2007
Article

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information

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September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
Case

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth

By: Mark Egan

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry

26 Nov 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Demand Estimation in Models of Imperfect Competition

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller

2016
Working Paper

The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman

To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry

SSRN

September 2023
Supplement

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth (B)

By: Mark Egan

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Expansion; Production; Apparel and Accessories Industry

July 2019
Teaching Note

Miroglio Fashion

By: Sunil Gupta

Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 519-053, 519-070, and 519-072. View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry

May 1997
Teaching Note

Module Overview: Coordinating and Managing Supply Chains: Matching Supply and Demand TN

By: Ananth Raman

Prepares students to configure operating and distribution systems to provide product (or service) supply to match customer demand. Begins by introducing students to the supply-demand mismatch problem, documenting its significance in many companies, and suggesting ways... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Working Capital; Distribution; Cost of Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry