Demand Estimation - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2024
Working Paper

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

By: Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

We study the pricing decisions of firms in the presence of consumer inertia. Inertia, which can arise from habit formation, brand loyalty, and switching costs, generates dynamic pricing incentives. These incentives mediate the impact of competition on market power in... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Inertia; Market Power; Dynamic Competition; Demand Estimation; Consumer Behavior; Markets; Performance; Competition; Price

18 Jul 2023
Research & Ideas

Will Global Demand for Oil Peak This Decade?

Is the globe’s thirst for oil finally topping out? A major international energy watcher says yes, predicting last month that demand for global oil for transport will peak around 2026, plateau for all uses by 2028, and possibly hit a zenith by the end of the decade.... View Details

Keywords: by Alvin Powell, Harvard Gazette; Energy; Industrial Products; Auto; Green Technology

Winter 2016
Article

Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization

By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi

We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry

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March 2011
Module Note

Quantitative Analysis of Competitive Position: Customer Demand and Willingness to Pay

By: David J. Collis

This note is designed to provide strategists with tools to perform two critical customer-related analyses: determining willingness to pay — the estimation of how much a given customer would be willing to pay for a particular product or service; and demand estimation —... View Details

Keywords: Price; Demand and Consumers; Competitive Advantage; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Market Participation; Segmentation

2025
Working Paper

Climate Risk and the U.S. Insurance Gap: Measurement, Drivers and Implications

By: Pari Sastry, Therese Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva

Despite rising climate-related property damage, the average American is under-insured. We study the homeowners insurance protection gap using nationwide state-of-the-art insurance, mortgage, and climate databases at a property level and exploiting quasi-exogenous... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Personal Finance; Consumer Behavior; Mortgages

May 2014
Article

Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment

By: Shawn A. Cole, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman

This paper estimates how experimentally-manipulated experiences with a novel financial product, rainfall index insurance, affect subsequent insurance demand. Using a seven-year panel, we develop three main findings. First, recent experience matters for demand,... View Details

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2011
Working Paper

Price Competition under Multinomial Logit Demand Functions with Random Coefficients

In this paper, we postulate a general class of price competition models with Mixed Multinomial Logit demand functions under affine cost functions. We first characterize the equilibrium behavior of this class of models in the case where each product in the market is... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Income Characteristics; Price; Product Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Segmentation

January 2020
Article

The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation

By: Tatyana Deryugina, Alexander MacKay and Julian Reif

We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-differences matching approach, we estimate that the price... View Details

Keywords: Electricity Demand; Consumption Dynamics; Energy; Policy; Demand and Consumers; Price; Mathematical Methods

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Article

How Much Is a Reduction of Your Customers' Wait Worth? An Empirical Study of the Fast-Food Drive-Thru Industry Based on Structural Estimation Methods

In many service industries, companies compete with each other on the basis of the waiting time their customers experience, along with other strategic instruments such as the price they charge for their service. The objective of this paper is to conduct an empirical... View Details

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Price; Service Delivery; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry

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2010
Working Paper

Cheaper by the Dozen: Using Sibling Discounts at Catholic Schools to Estimate the Price Elasticity of Private School Attendance

By: Susan Dynarski, Jonathan Gruber and Danielle Li

The effect of vouchers on sorting between private and public schools depends upon the price elasticity of demand for private schooling. Estimating this elasticity is empirically challenging because prices and quantities are jointly determined in the market for private... View Details

Keywords: Price; Religion; Entrepreneurship; Education

December 2019
Article

Invest in Information or Wing It? A Model of Dynamic Pricing with Seller Learning

By: Guofang Huang, Hong Luo and Jing Xia

Pricing idiosyncratic products is often challenging because the seller, ex ante, lacks information about the demand for individual items. This paper develops a model of dynamic pricing for idiosyncratic products that features the optimal stopping structure and a seller... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Pricing; Idiosyncratic Products; Item-specific Demand; Demand Uncertainty; Active Seller Learning; The Value Of Information; Price; Information; Value; Learning

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2025
Working Paper

Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details

Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing

09 Dec 2015
Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

predict demand and set prices to maximize revenue of products that have no historical sales data? To that end, they set out to develop a pricing decision support tool that would use existing data to maximize revenue on new products. The... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories

Forthcoming
Article

Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing

By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma

We propose an equilibrium corporate bond pricing model that accommodates the heterogeneity in institutional investors' preferences and mandates in an empirically tractable way. Our model, estimated on rich holdings data, quantifies investors' preferences and demand... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Bonds; Demand Systems; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Liquidity; Bonds; Price; Investment Funds

2017
Working Paper

The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household... View Details

Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry

Forthcoming
Article

Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy

By: Samuel Antill and Megan Hunter

We estimate the indirect costs of corporate bankruptcy associated with lost customers. In incentivized experiments, randomly informing consumers about a firm’s Chapter 11 reorganization lowers their willingness to pay for the firm’s products by 17%-28%. Consumers worry... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Choice; Bankruptcy; Financial Distress; Structural Estimation; Experimental Economics; Hertz; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Perception; Consumer Behavior

2018
Working Paper

Shipping Fees and Product Assortment in Online Retail

By: Chaoqun Chen and Donald Ngwe

Shipping fees are an important aspect of online retail for both consumers and sellers. A common fee structure is contingent free shipping, in which consumers are granted free shipping for basket sizes above a minimum value and are charged a flat fee for orders below... View Details

Keywords: Shpping Fee; E-commerce; Multi-category Demand; Search Costs; Shipping Membership; Spending; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry

2019
Working Paper

The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets

By: Achal Bassamboo, Ruomeng Cui and Antonio Moreno

Prediction is an important activity in various business processes, but it becomes difficult when historical information is not available, such as forecasting demand of a new product. One approach that can be applied in such situations is to crowdsource opinions from... View Details

Keywords: Wisdom Of Crowds; Demand Forecasting; Price Forecasting; Forecasting and Prediction; Social and Collaborative Networks; Size; Performance

August 2022
Supplement

Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

By: Ayelet Israeli

This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the... View Details

Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore

2018
Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details

Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption

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