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    • All HBS Web  (536)
      • Faculty Publications  (90)

      Demand EstimationRemove Demand Estimation →

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Using LLMs for Market Research

      By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe
      Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly gained popularity as labor-augmenting tools for programming, writing, and many other processes that benefit from quick text generation. In this paper we explore the uses and benefits of LLMs for researchers and practitioners... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; Research; AI and Machine Learning; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry
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      Brand, James, Ayelet Israeli, and Donald Ngwe. "Using LLMs for Market Research." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-062, April 2023. (Revised July 2024.)
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling

      By: Michael Alley, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li and Georgia Perakis
      Problem definition: We present a data-driven study of the secondary ticket market. In particular, we are primarily concerned with accurately estimating price sensitivity for listed tickets. In this setting, there are many issues including endogeneity, heterogeneity in... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Demand and Consumers; AI and Machine Learning; Investment Return; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Sports Industry
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      Alley, Michael, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Georgia Perakis. "Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 409–426.
      • Article

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the... View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-032, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period.... View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      On the Estimation of Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models

      By: Philippe van der Beck
      A growing literature uses portfolio holdings data to quantify the impact of investor demand on equilibrium prices via counterfactual experiments. The key parameter in relating demand and equilibrium prices is investors’ elasticity of demand with respect to the price.... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Financial Instruments
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      van der Beck, Philippe. "On the Estimation of Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 22-67, May 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products

      By: Kris Ferreira, Sunanda Parthasarathy and Shreyas Sekar
      We consider the product ranking challenge that online retailers face when their customers typically behave as “window shoppers”: they form an impression of the assortment after browsing products ranked in the initial positions and then decide whether to continue... View Details
      Keywords: Online Learning; Product Ranking; Assortment Optimization; Learning; Internet and the Web; Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; E-commerce
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      Ferreira, Kris, Sunanda Parthasarathy, and Shreyas Sekar. "Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products." Management Science 68, no. 3 (March 2022): 1828–1848.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Revisions Requested at the Review of Financial Studies. Revised April 2024. Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
      On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier, and Yufeng Wu. "Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care

      By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
      We study the role of amenities in increasing demand for underutilized healthcare services. We evaluate the offer of a high-amenity diagnostic consultation for cataracts with a randomized price and find that a lower price for the high-amenity consultation increases... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care Demand; Amenities; Health Care Quality; Cataracts; Surgery; Health Care and Treatment; Demand and Consumers; Quality; Learning; Mexico
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      Adhvaryu, Achyuta, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. "Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-110, March 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

      By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
      Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to... View Details
      Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result
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      Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability

      By: Shawn A. Cole and A. Nilesh Fernando
      We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high, and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6% for a... View Details
      Keywords: Agricultural Extension; Informational Inefficiencies; Technology Adoption; Agribusiness; Information; Mobile Technology; India
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      Cole, Shawn A., and A. Nilesh Fernando. "'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability." Economic Journal 131, no. 633 (January 2021): 192–219.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger

      By: Chiara Farronato, Jessica Fong and Andrey Fradkin
      Digital platforms are increasingly the subject of regulatory scrutiny. In comparison to multiple competitors, a single platform may increase consumer welfare if network effects are large or may decrease welfare due to higher prices or reduction in platform variety. We... View Details
      Keywords: Platform Differentiation; Digital Platforms; Network Effects; Measurement and Metrics; Mergers and Acquisitions; Outcome or Result
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      Farronato, Chiara, Jessica Fong, and Andrey Fradkin. "Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28047, November 2020.
      • September 2020
      • Article

      Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels

      By: David R. Bell, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
      We conjecture that for online retailers, experience-centric offline store formats do not simply expand market coverage, but rather, serve to significantly amplify future positive customer behaviors, both online and offline. We term this phenomenon “supercharging” and... View Details
      Keywords: Retail Operations; Marketing-operations Interface; Omnichannel Retailing; Experience Attributes; Quasi-experimental Methods; Operations; Internet and the Web; Marketing Channels; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry
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      Bell, David R., Santiago Gallino, and Antonio Moreno. "Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels." Management Science 66, no. 9 (September 2020).
      • September–October 2020
      • Article

      Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

      By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
      Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a... View Details
      Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
      • Article

      Sustainability, Business, and Health

      By: George Serafeim, Amanda M. Rischbieth and Howard K. Koh
      The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated that response demands involvement from every sector of society. As a major example, some businesses have stepped up in ways previously unimaginable. Garment companies have repurposed production to face... View Details
      Keywords: COVID; COVID-19; Sustainability; Health And Wellness; Corporate Social Responsibility; Health Pandemics; Health; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Corporate Accountability; Health Care and Treatment
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      Serafeim, George, Amanda M. Rischbieth, and Howard K. Koh. "Sustainability, Business, and Health." JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association 324, no. 2 (July 14, 2020): 147–148.
      • June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
      • Case

      Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)

      By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley
      In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases... View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leasing; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Heese, Jonas, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, and Julia Kelley. "Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-069, June 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
      • April 2020 (Revised June 2022)
      • Technical Note

      Quantitative Analysis in Marketing

      By: Sunil Gupta
      Marketing is a combination of art and science that requires both qualitative and quantitative analysis to arrive at effective decisions. This note highlights how quantitative analysis can help in the following marketing decisions: estimating market size, determining... View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Analysis; Marketing; Decision Making; Analysis
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      Gupta, Sunil. "Quantitative Analysis in Marketing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 520-091, April 2020. (Revised June 2022.)
      • April 2020 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl, Kylie Lucas and Mehak Sarang
      From the time he transformed the world of online banking, Elon Musk established himself as a bold innovator. After selling X.com to PayPal in 2002, he founded a series of revolutionary start-ups, starting with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Hoping to "make... View Details
      Keywords: Space Tech; Space Access; Vision; Economies Of Scale; Technological Innovation; Emerging Markets; Commercialization; Finance; Aerospace Industry
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C., Kylie Lucas, and Mehak Sarang. "SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access." Harvard Business School Case 720-027, April 2020. (Revised October 2021.)
      • April 2020
      • Article

      Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques

      By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
      Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for... View Details
      Keywords: Incentive-compatible Elicitation; Experimental Methods; Weather Insurance; Rainfall Insurance; Agricultural Extension; Demand and Consumers
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      Cole, Shawn A., A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 172 (April 2020): 33–56.
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