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      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details
      Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-022, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves

      By: Robin Greenwood and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
      We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in... View Details
      Keywords: Pension Funds; Investment Funds; Insurance; Assets; Interest Rates; Bonds
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-109, June 2018. (Revised December 2018.)
      • 2016
      • Chapter

      Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
      We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through... View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; Financial Markets
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
      • Summer 2016
      • Article

      The Real Lessons From Kodak's Decline

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Eastman Kodak is often mischaracterized as a company whose managers didn't recognize soon enough that digital technology would decimate its traditional business. However, what really happened at Kodak is much more complicated—and instructive. Kodak suffered from a... View Details
      Keywords: Technological Change; Disruption; Ecosystem; Semiconductors; Photography; Scaling-up; Scaling; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Information Technology; Product; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Shih, Willy C. "The Real Lessons From Kodak's Decline." MIT Sloan Management Review 57, no. 4 (Summer 2016): 11–13.
      • November 2015
      • Exercise

      GenapSys Exercise - Introduction to Free Cash Flow Curves

      By: Shikhar Ghosh, Joseph B. Fuller and Christopher Payton
      Exercise to accompany "GenapSys: Business Models for the Genome" View Details
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      Ghosh, Shikhar, Joseph B. Fuller, and Christopher Payton. "GenapSys Exercise - Introduction to Free Cash Flow Curves." Harvard Business School Exercise 816-701, November 2015.
      • November 2015
      • Article

      Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery

      By: Bryan M. Burt, Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki and John G. Byrne
      OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that increased post-graduate surgical experience correlates with improved operative efficiency and long-term survival in standard cardiac surgery procedures.

      METHODS: Utilizing a prospectively collected retrospective database,... View Details
      Keywords: Service Delivery; Value; Health Care and Treatment; Experience and Expertise; Health Industry
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      Burt, Bryan M., Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki, and John G. Byrne. "Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery." Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 150, no. 5 (November 2015): 1061–1067.
      • Article

      Behavioral Hazard in Health Insurance

      By: Katherine Baicker, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein
      A fundamental implication of standard moral hazard models is overuse of low-value medical care because copays are lower than costs. In these models, the demand curve alone can be used to make welfare statements, a fact relied on by much empirical work. There is ample... View Details
      Keywords: Insurance; Consumer Behavior; Health Care and Treatment; Insurance Industry
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      Baicker, Katherine, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Behavioral Hazard in Health Insurance." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 4 (November 2015): 1623–1667. (Online Appendix.)
      • Article

      The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach

      By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
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      Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
      • Article

      Time-driven Activity-based Costing of Multivessel Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting across National Boundaries to Identify Improvement Opportunities: Study Protocol

      By: F. Erhun, B. Mistry, T. Platcheck, A. Milstein, V.G. Narayanan and R. S. Kaplan
      Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a common treatment for coronary artery disease—a disease that affects over 10% of US adults and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. In 2005, the mean cost for a CABG procedure among Medicare beneficiaries in the... View Details
      Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Health Disorders; Health Care and Treatment; United States; India
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      Erhun, F., B. Mistry, T. Platcheck, A. Milstein, V.G. Narayanan, and R. S. Kaplan. "Time-driven Activity-based Costing of Multivessel Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting across National Boundaries to Identify Improvement Opportunities: Study Protocol." BMJ Open 5, no. 8 (2015).
      • November 2013 (Revised August 2015)
      • Case

      Janet Yellen and the Bernanke Fed

      By: Matthew Weinzierl and Katrina Flanagan
      The unelected Federal Reserve Chairman exerts exceptional influence over the U.S., in fact global, economy. As Janet Yellen prepared to take over the position, she would look back on Chairman Bernanke's tenure during the Great Recession. During that time, Bernanke was... View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Nominal Rigidity And Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply; Phillips Curve; Taylor Rule; Central Bank Independence; Central Banking; Money; Policy; Financial Crisis; Power and Influence; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew, and Katrina Flanagan. "Janet Yellen and the Bernanke Fed." Harvard Business School Case 714-030, November 2013. (Revised August 2015.)
      • August 2013 (Revised November 2020)
      • Case

      Tesla Motors

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      In mid-2013, Tesla Motors was riding a wave of success: It had launched its first really mass-produced car—the model S—to rave reviews; had recently raised first-year production targets; and had started taking orders for its next car, the Model X. Tesla seemed to be on... View Details
      Keywords: Barriers To Entry; Economic Analysis; Learning Curve; Economies Of Scale; Innovation; Market Entry; Sustainable Competitive Advantage; Vision; Strategy And Leadership; Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Competitive Advantage; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Learning; Economics; Analysis; Auto Industry
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Tesla Motors." Harvard Business School Case 714-413, August 2013. (Revised November 2020.)
      • June 2012
      • Article

      Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
      Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2012): 57–87.
      • July 2010
      • Supplement

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis (CW)

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
      Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Price; Partners and Partnerships; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Revenue; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 511-701, July 2010.
      • July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
      • September 2009
      • Article

      A Detailed Analysis of the Reduction Mammaplasty Learning Curve: A Statistical Process Model for Approaching Surgical Performance Improvement

      By: Matthew Carty MD, Rodney Chan, Robert S. Huckman, Daniel C. Snow and Dennis Orgill

      Background: The increased focus on quality and efficiency improvement within academic surgery has met with variable success among plastic surgeons. Traditional surgical performance metrics, such as morbidity and mortality, are insufficient to improve the... View Details

      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Outcome or Result; Performance Efficiency; Performance Improvement
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      Carty, Matthew, MD, Rodney Chan, Robert S. Huckman, Daniel C. Snow, and Dennis Orgill. "A Detailed Analysis of the Reduction Mammaplasty Learning Curve: A Statistical Process Model for Approaching Surgical Performance Improvement." Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery 124, no. 3 (September 2009): 706–714.
      • May 2007
      • Article

      Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance

      By: Malcolm Baker, Joshua Coval and Jeremy Stein
      We explore the consequences for corporate financial policy that arise when investors exhibit inertial behavior. One implication of investor inertia is that, all else equal, a firm pursuing a strategy of equity-financed growth will prefer a stock-for-stock merger to... View Details
      Keywords: Behavior; Investment; Policy; Corporate Finance
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      Baker, Malcolm, Joshua Coval, and Jeremy Stein. "Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance." Journal of Financial Economics 84, no. 2 (May 2007): 266–298.
      • 2005
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance

      By: Malcolm Baker, Joshua Coval and Jeremy Stein
      We explore the consequences for corporate financial policy that arise when investors exhibit inertial behavior. One implication of investor inertia is that, all else equal, a firm pursuing a strategy of equity-financed growth will prefer a stock-for-stock merger to... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Stocks; Mergers and Acquisitions; Policy; Investment; Financial Institutions; Equity; Corporate Finance
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      Baker, Malcolm, Joshua Coval, and Jeremy Stein. "Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance." NBER Working Paper Series, April 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
      • March 2005
      • Article

      Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

      By: Robin Greenwood
      I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
      Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
      • December 2004
      • Teaching Note

      Yield Curves and Bond Ratings Tutorial (TN)

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Teaching Note to (9-204-712). View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Education; Debt Securities; Service Operations; Measurement and Metrics; Performance Evaluation; Education Industry
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "Yield Curves and Bond Ratings Tutorial (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 205-051, December 2004.
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