Credit Supply Shocks - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Article

Large Banks and Small Firm Lending

By: Vitaly Bord, Victoria Ivashina and Ryan D. Taliaferro

We examine the long-lasting effects of the 2007 real estate price collapse on small business credit supply. Banks affected by the decline in real estate prices systematically contracted their credit to small firms. At the same time, regional and local banks, many of... View Details

Keywords: Small Firms; Credit Supply; Banking Competition; Small Business; Credit; Financial Crisis; Banks and Banking; Competition

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12 Oct 2017
Working Paper Summaries

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

Keywords: by Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein; Banking

2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

August 2015
Article

Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks

By: Victoria Ivashina, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein

A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale... View Details

Keywords: Banks; Global Banks; Credit Supply; Dollar Funding; International Finance; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry

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2025
Working Paper

Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains

By: Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu and Andrea Presbitero

Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Financial Institutions; International Finance; Trade; Credit; United States; Asia

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01 Oct 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Negative Shocks and Innovation: Evidence from Medical Device Recalls

Keywords: by George P. Ball, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Ariel Dora Stern; Medical Devices & Supplies; Medical Devices & Supplies

12 Dec 2023
Research & Ideas

COVID Tested Global Supply Chains. Here’s How They’ve Adapted

documents how and why companies are moving operations to low-cost countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Costa Rica. “They moved into a world where they thought there were no more shocks. Now, they realize there are shocks of many kinds.”... View Details

Keywords: by Scott Van Voorhis

2025
Working Paper

Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending

By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti

This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details

Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets

February 2025
Article

Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller

We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a restriction on the covariance between unobserved demand and cost shocks can resolve endogeneity and identify the price parameter. We demonstrate how to... View Details

Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables; Price; Demand and Consumers; Competition

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2024
Article

Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets

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2017
Working Paper

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; System Shocks; Credit; Labor; United States

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14 Nov 2013
Working Paper Summaries

What Shapes the Gatekeepers? Evidence from Global Supply Chain Auditors

Keywords: by Jodi L. Short, Michael W. Toffel & Andrea Hugill; Financial Services; Legal Services

22 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Reading the Financial Crisis Warning Signs: Credit Markets and the 'Red-Zone'

high, it's when the change is high—when credit is expanding a lot faster than the economy. That is when you should watch out. Layne: What can we learn from these patterns now? Greenwood: I think the Fed is doing a great job. Many people... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Banking

October 2019
Article

Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Sanket Korgaonkar

We exploit the OCC's preemption of national banks from state laws against predatory lending as a quasi-experiment to study the effect of deregulation and its interaction with competition on the supply of complex mortgages. Following the preemption ruling, national... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Complex Mortgages; Credit Supply; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Competition; Mortgages; Government Legislation; Credit; Financial Crisis

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2008
Working Paper

A Darker Side to Decentralized Banks: Market Power and Credit Rationing in SME Lending

By: Rodrigo Canales and Ramana Nanda

We use loan-level data to study how the organizational structure of banks impacts small business lending. We find that decentralized banks—where branch managers have greater autonomy over lending decisions—give larger loans to small firms and those with "soft... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Structure; Financing and Loans; Industry Structures; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Mexico

Article

Happiness on Tap: Piped Water Adoption in Urban Morocco

By: Florencia Devoto, Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, William Pariente and Vincent Pons

Connecting private dwellings to the water main is expensive and typically cannot be publicly financed. We show that households' willingness to pay for a private connection is high when it can be purchased on credit, not because a connection improves health but because... View Details

Keywords: Water Supply; Urban Development; Household; Credit; Well-being; Morocco

February 2018
Article

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane

During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details

Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis

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2014
Discussion Paper

The Promise of Microfinance and Women's Empowerment: What Does the Evidence Say?

By: Dina D. Pomeranz

The microfinance revolution has transformed access to financial services for low-income populations worldwide. As a result, it has become one of the most talked-about innovations in global development in recent decades. However, its expansion has not been without... View Details

November 2023
Case

Gabon Special Economic Zone

By: John Macomber and Wale Lawal

Tropical rain forest covers about 80% of the West African nation of Gabon, part of the Congo Basin and the "lungs of the world." Gabon is one of the first nations to earn revenue from carbon sequestration...as long as the rain forest remains intact. There are... View Details

Keywords: Economic Development; Forestry; Wood; Carbon Credits; Supply Chain; Economic Growth; Developing Countries and Economies; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Government Administration; Business and Government Relations; Strategy; Forest Products Industry; Africa; Gabon

Article

Capital Market-Driven Corporate Finance

By: Malcolm Baker

Much of empirical corporate finance focuses on sources of the demand for various forms of capital, not the supply. Recently, this has changed. Supply effects of equity and credit markets can arise from a combination of three ingredients: investor tastes, limited... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Limits To Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Securities Issuance; Supply Effects; Corporate Finance; Investment; Price; Capital Markets; Equity; Financial Services Industry

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