Publications

2011
Working Paper

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

November 2017
Article

Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

Can a credit expansion induce a boom and bust in house prices and real economic activity? This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy.... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Credit Supply; Credit Expansion; Household Leverage; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Mortgages; Laws and Statutes; Credit; Household; Borrowing and Debt; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation

March 2014
Article

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

Americans are awash in debt. Credit undergirds daily life more than ever before—it is one of the defining aspects of life in the United States today. The damage from a depressed housing market is exacerbated by the subprime lender implosion, sending shock waves... View Details

Article

Large Banks and Small Firm Lending

By: Vitaly Bord, Victoria Ivashina and Ryan D. Taliaferro

We examine the long-lasting effects of the 2007 real estate price collapse on small business credit supply. Banks affected by the decline in real estate prices systematically contracted their credit to small firms. At the same time, regional and local banks, many of... View Details

Keywords: Small Firms; Credit Supply; Banking Competition; Small Business; Credit; Financial Crisis; Banks and Banking; Competition

12 Oct 2017
Working Paper Summaries

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

Keywords: by Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein; Banking

Markups and Cost Passthrough Along the Supply Chain

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that... View Details

Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among... View Details

August 2015
Article

Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks

By: Victoria Ivashina, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein

A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale... View Details

Keywords: Banks; Global Banks; Credit Supply; Dollar Funding; International Finance; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry

2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

2025
Working Paper

Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains

By: Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu and Andrea Presbitero

Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Financial Institutions; International Finance; Trade; Credit; United States; Asia

01 Oct 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Negative Shocks and Innovation: Evidence from Medical Device Recalls

Keywords: by George P. Ball, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Ariel Dora Stern; Medical Devices & Supplies; Medical Devices & Supplies

27 Jul 2017
News

Trump takes credit for Foxconn's 'incredible investment'

2025
Working Paper

Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending

By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti

This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details

Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets

12 Dec 2023
Research & Ideas

COVID Tested Global Supply Chains. Here’s How They’ve Adapted

documents how and why companies are moving operations to low-cost countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Costa Rica. “They moved into a world where they thought there were no more shocks. Now, they realize there are shocks of many kinds.”... View Details

Keywords: by Scott Van Voorhis

February 2025
Article

Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller

We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a restriction on the covariance between unobserved demand and cost shocks can resolve endogeneity and identify the price parameter. We demonstrate how to... View Details

Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables; Price; Demand and Consumers; Competition