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  • All HBS Web  (636)
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    • Research  (407)
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Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (636)
    • News  (80)
    • Research  (407)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (1)
  • Faculty Publications  (172)
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  • August 2006
  • Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management
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Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
  • August 1995
  • Case

Credit General, SA

By: Andre F. Perold
The head of a bank's asset and liability committee has to approve an unexpectedly large overnight currency exposure or require at great cost that the exposure be reduced. View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Currency; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry
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Perold, Andre F. "Credit General, SA." Harvard Business School Case 296-011, August 1995.
  • February 2018
  • Article

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane
During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details
Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis
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Engle, Robert F., and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 2 (February 2018): 449–492.
  • September 2006 (Revised August 2007)
  • Background Note

The History of Credit Agencies in the United States

By: F. Warren McFarlan and Tracy Manty
Provides a brief background on the history of credit agencies in the United States. Focuses on the mature process of data collection on an American consumer and how credit agencies share the information to determine proper credit risk and worthiness of a consumer. The... View Details
Keywords: Credit; United States
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McFarlan, F. Warren, and Tracy Manty. "The History of Credit Agencies in the United States." Harvard Business School Background Note 307-057, September 2006. (Revised August 2007.)
  • 24 Sep 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Why Small Businesses Deserve More Credit

It’s Wall Street doctrine that small firms struggle to raise capital at reasonable rates and are often rejected for credit lines and loans because banks think their risk profile is too high. “If you really... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking
  • April 2010
  • Case

The Credit Crisis of 2008: An Overview

By: V.G. Narayanan, Fabrizio Ferri and Lisa Brem
This case examines the causes and consequences of the credit crisis of 2008 from a national and global perspective and explores the actions taken and proposed by the U.S. and European governments. View Details
Keywords: Credit; Financial Crisis; Crisis Management; Risk Management; Globalized Economies and Regions; Global Strategy; Mortgages; Performance Effectiveness; Financial Services Industry; United States
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Narayanan, V.G., Fabrizio Ferri, and Lisa Brem. "The Credit Crisis of 2008: An Overview." Harvard Business School Case 110-048, April 2010.
  • 14 Mar 2011
  • Research & Ideas

Keeping Credit Flowing to Consumers in Need

The credit crunch and subsequent collapse of the nonprime mortgage market claimed many victims, including hundreds of thousands of low- and moderate-income Americans who lost their homes and savings. Today, regulators and policymakers are... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services; Construction; Real Estate
  • 23 Jan 2023
  • Research & Ideas

After High-Profile Failures, Can Investors Still Trust Credit Ratings?

During the financial crisis of 2008, major credit rating agencies faced sharp criticism for failing to recognize and warn of the risks of emerging instruments like mortgage-backed securities. Since that... View Details
Keywords: by Ben Rand
  • May 2013
  • Teaching Plan

High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital

By: Clayton Rose and David Lane
Late in 2010, Credit Suisse CEO Brady Dougan and his team considered whether or not to issue contingent capital, which Swiss regulators would require by 2019. They faced a number of substantial issues, including: Would contingent capital actually work as conceptualized... View Details
Keywords: Financial Institutions; Capital Markets; Financial Crisis; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; International Finance; Financial Liquidity; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Switzerland
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Rose, Clayton, and David Lane. "High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital." Harvard Business School Teaching Plan 313-048, May 2013.
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit

By: Sergey Chernenko, Robert Ialenti and David Scharfstein
We show that business development companies (BDCs)—closed-end funds that provide a significant share of nonbank loans to middle market firms—are very well capitalized according to bank capital frameworks. They have median risk-based capital ratios of about 36%... View Details
Keywords: Financing and Loans; Capital; Credit; Financial Institutions
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Chernenko, Sergey, Robert Ialenti, and David Scharfstein. "Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit." Working Paper, March 2025.
  • March 2009 (Revised May 2011)
  • Case

Risk Management at Wellfleet Bank: Deciding about "Megadeals"

By: Anette Mikes
Inspired by one of the few banks that successfully weathered the 2007-2009 credit crisis, the case illustrates risk management in a corporate finance business. Chief executive Alastair Dowes has to decide if the risk governance process is adequate to uncover mega-risks... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Decision Making; Performance Evaluation; Credit; Balance and Stability; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Decision Choices and Conditions; Negotiation Offer; Performance Effectiveness; Corporate Finance; Banking Industry
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Mikes, Anette. Risk Management at Wellfleet Bank: Deciding about "Megadeals". Harvard Business School Case 109-071, March 2009. (Revised May 2011.)
  • Research Summary

Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details
  • January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
  • Background Note

Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details
Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
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Abdelal, Rawi E., and Christopher Bruner. "Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process." Harvard Business School Background Note 705-027, January 2005. (Revised October 2005.)
  • 22 Jul 2009
  • Working Paper Summaries

Reputation and Competition: Evidence from the Credit Rating Industry

Keywords: by Bo Becker & Todd Milbourn; Financial Services
  • August 2011 (Revised October 2014)
  • Case

High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital (A)

By: Clayton S. Rose and Aldo Sesia
Late in 2010, Credit Suisse CEO Brady Dougan and his team closed in on the decision of whether or not to issue contingent capital, which Swiss regulators would require by 2019. There were a number of substantial issues facing Dougan and his team, including whether... View Details
Keywords: Financial Institutions; Capital Markets; Financial Crisis; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; International Finance; Financial Liquidity; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Switzerland
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Rose, Clayton S., and Aldo Sesia. "High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital (A)." Harvard Business School Case 312-007, August 2011. (Revised October 2014.)
  • August 1994
  • Background Note

Derivative Markets: Structure and Risks

Gives a conceptual understanding of derivative products, their applications, and valuation. After a brief treatment of exchange-traded derivatives, explores over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, emphasizing the market, credit, legal, operational, and other risks... View Details
Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Markets
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Mason, Scott P., and Kuljot Singh. "Derivative Markets: Structure and Risks." Harvard Business School Background Note 295-009, August 1994.
  • 22 Aug 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Reading the Financial Crisis Warning Signs: Credit Markets and the 'Red-Zone'

credit market dynamics—and investor behavior. HBS Working Knowledge spoke with Robin Greenwood, the George Gund Professor of Finance and Banking at Harvard Business School, about the role markets may play in shaping economic conditions.... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Banking
  • 2011
  • Book

Moving Forward: The Future of Consumer Credit and Mortgage Finance

By: Nicolas P. Retsinas and Eric Belsky
The recent collapse of the mortgage market revealed fractures in the credit market that have deep roots in the system's structure, conduct, and regulation. The time has come for a clear-eyed assessment of what happened and how the system should be strengthened and... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Markets; Mortgages; Personal Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Demand and Consumers; Financial Services Industry
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Retsinas, Nicolas P., and Eric Belsky, eds. Moving Forward: The Future of Consumer Credit and Mortgage Finance. Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
  • 31 Aug 2009
  • Research & Ideas

Why Competition May Not Improve Credit Rating Agencies

In the run-up to the global financial crisis, credit rating agencies gave high marks to such risky financial vehicles as collateralized debt obligations, which few people understood. It has been argued that these ratings misled investors... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Financial Services
  • 15 Aug 2007
  • Op-Ed

3 Steps to Reduce Financial System Risk

agencies, uneven supervisory coverage, and politically driven legislative reactions. In the process, much of the initial beneficial impact of credit risk transfer technology may be negated. 3 steps can... View Details
Keywords: by Mohamed El-Erian; Financial Services; Banking
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