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- All HBS Web (203)
- Faculty Publications (93)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (203)
- Faculty Publications (93)
- Research Summary
Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)
In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details
- Research Summary
Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk
In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details
- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I... View Details
Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Soft Rating Adjustments; Default; Credit; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Institutions; Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- June 1995 (Revised May 1996)
- Teaching Note
State of Connecticut Municipal Swap TN
By: Andre F. Perold and Wai Lee
Teaching Note for (9-291-024). View Details
- September 2008
- Article
Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification
By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
- September 2011
- Article
How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?
The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details
Keywords: Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
Becker, Bo, and Todd Milbourn. "How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?" Journal of Financial Economics 101, no. 3 (September 2011): 493–514.
- 2008
- Working Paper
How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?
The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details
Keywords: Credit; Financial Markets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Quality; Reputation; Competition; Financial Services Industry
Becker, Bo, and Todd Milbourn. "How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-051, October 2008. (Revised July 2009, September 2010.)
- January 1997 (Revised March 1999)
- Case
An Overview of Credit Derivatives
Presents the history and features of credit derivatives, a new class of securities. A stylized problem is also provided. View Details
Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps
Das, Sanjiv R., and Stephen E. Lynagh. "An Overview of Credit Derivatives." Harvard Business School Case 297-086, January 1997. (Revised March 1999.)
- February 1997 (Revised July 1997)
- Case
Enron Corp.: - Credit Sensitive Notes
This case investigates an innovative bond issue by Enron. The coupon on the bond is indexed to the company's credit rating, making it a credit derivative structure. View Details
Das, Sanjiv R., and Stephen E. Lynagh. "Enron Corp.: - Credit Sensitive Notes." Harvard Business School Case 297-099, February 1997. (Revised July 1997.)
- 2011
- Working Paper
Why Fears about Municipal Credit Are Overblown
Highly publicized predictions of 50-100 municipal defaults have caused anxiety among municipal bond investors. While there is some chance that negative investor sentiment will lead to further spread widening, the probability of the kind of widespread default that would... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Bonds; Investment Return; City
Bergstresser, Daniel, and Randolph Cohen. "Why Fears about Municipal Credit Are Overblown." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-129, June 2011.
- January 2011
- Supplement
Fixed Income Arbitrage in a Financial Crisis (D): TED Spread and Swap Spread in May 2009
The D case briefly recounts the action that investment manager Albert Mills takes in the matter of an unusually low U.S. dollar fixed-floating swap spread. He must decide what to do next. View Details
Taliaferro, Ryan D., and Stephen Blyth. "Fixed Income Arbitrage in a Financial Crisis (D): TED Spread and Swap Spread in May 2009." Harvard Business School Supplement 211-052, January 2011.
- August 2017 (Revised February 2024)
- Teaching Note
Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal
By: Boris Vallee, Patrick Augustin and Philippe Rich
This case explores a complex swap transaction implemented by Metro do Porto in 2007. It represents an opportunity to study fixed income derivative instruments, such as plain-vanilla swaps and structured swaps, as well as understand the opportunities and challenges of... View Details
- 31 Aug 2009
- Research & Ideas
Why Competition May Not Improve Credit Rating Agencies
In the run-up to the global financial crisis, credit rating agencies gave high marks to such risky financial vehicles as collateralized debt obligations, which few people understood. It has been argued that these ratings misled investors... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets
De Simone, Lisa, Peiyi Jin, and Daniel Rabetti. "Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending." Working Paper, February 2025.
- Fast Answer
Securitization process and credit rating agencies
What resources are available on the securitization process, credit rating agencies and European covered bonds? Databases Bloomberg - Use Mortgages function to get information on various forms of secured loans Standard &... View Details
- January 2017
- Case
Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal
By: Boris Vallee, Patrick Augustin and Philippe Rich
This case explores a complex swap transaction implemented by Metro do Porto in 2007. It represents an opportunity to study fixed income derivative instruments, such as plain-vanilla swaps and structured swaps, as well as understand the opportunities and challenges of... View Details
Keywords: Swaps; Public Finance; Structured Finance; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Public Sector; Transportation Industry; Rail Industry; Portugal
Vallee, Boris, Patrick Augustin, and Philippe Rich. "Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal." Harvard Business School Case 217-050, January 2017.
- 23 Jan 2023
- Research & Ideas
After High-Profile Failures, Can Investors Still Trust Credit Ratings?
important lesson: getting it wrong can seriously damage their reputations and hurt their businesses. As economic fears mount and raise default concerns, a fresh analysis of new-and-improved credit rating... View Details
Keywords: by Ben Rand
- July 2019
- Article
Optimal Capital Structure and Bankruptcy Choice: Dynamic Bargaining vs Liquidation
By: Samuel Antill and Steven R. Grenadier
We model a firm’s optimal capital structure decision in a framework in which it may later choose to enter either Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation. Creditors anticipate equityholders’ ex-post reorganization incentives and price them into the ex-ante... View Details
Keywords: Default; Dynamic Bargaining; Capital Structure; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Mathematical Methods
Antill, Samuel, and Steven R. Grenadier. "Optimal Capital Structure and Bankruptcy Choice: Dynamic Bargaining vs Liquidation." Journal of Financial Economics 133, no. 1 (July 2019): 198–224.
- 26 Jan 2021
- Research & Ideas
A New Way to Cut Credit Card Debt: Pay Off One Purchase at a Time
their debt and get rid of some of it.” The prospect of reduced spending might seem like it would deter credit card companies from rolling out the repayment-by-purchase option. But Norton says those companies actually prefer that people... View Details