Publications

Purchase

2011
Working Paper

Fractionalization and the Municipal Bond Market

We study the impact of ethnic and religious fractionalization on the U.S. municipal debt market and find that issuers from more ethnically and religiously fractionalized counties pay higher yields on their municipal debt. A two standard deviation increase in religious... View Details

Keywords: Ethnicity Characteristics; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment Return; Geographic Location; City; Religion; United States

Article

Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details

Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Assets; Bonds; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management; Insurance Industry

18 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

January 1994
Exercise

Walt Disney Company's Sleeping Beauty Bonds

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Walt Disney Co. issues a 100-year bond. This case describes the terms of the bond and immediate capital market reaction. View Details

Keywords: Capital Markets; Cash Flow; Debt Securities; Bonds; Interest Rates; Value

Purchase

2012
Working Paper

Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Reaching-for-yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyses this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details

Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Bonds; Assets; Risk Management; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Insurance Industry

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

June 2018
Article

The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Interest Rates; Policy; Bonds; Financial Markets

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

31 Aug 2009
Research & Ideas

Why Competition May Not Improve Credit Rating Agencies

reserves when investing in bonds of lower ratings. Ratings are also used in private contracts, for example to define the investment objectives of bond mutual funds. View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Financial Services

2008
Working Paper

Just Keep My Money! Supporting Tax-time Savings with U.S. Savings Bonds

By: Peter Tufano

This paper reports the results of a 2007 experiment testing if specific process simplification can foster increased take-up rates for savings products, particularly by low-to-moderate income (LMI) households. Tax refund recipients at certain H&R Block tax preparation... View Details

Keywords: Household; Income; Bonds; Investment; Personal Finance; Saving; Taxation; United States

2024
Article

Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets

22 Jul 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Reputation and Competition: Evidence from the Credit Rating Industry

Keywords: by Bo Becker & Todd Milbourn; Financial Services

August 2021
Article

Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright

Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes... View Details

Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates

27 May 2011
Working Paper Summaries

An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

August 2021
Article

Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds

By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun

We provide evidence that bond fund managers misclassify their holdings, and that these misclassifications have a real and significant impact on investor capital flows. In particular, many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their... View Details

Keywords: Mutual Funds; Economics; Finance; Measurement and Metrics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

April 2025
Article

The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand

In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details

Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Bonds; Financial Markets; Government Administration; Valuation; Interest Rates; United States

Research Summary

Corporate Bond Pricing and Different Sources of Asset Return Volatility (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

This paper presents a pricing model for defaultable bonds. Default is defined by a cash flow, not value, covenant. The cash flow (total distributions) yield is stochastic. We find that different sources of volatility, cash flow versus discount rate news, affect... View Details

13 Jun 2012
HBS Case

HBS Cases: A Startup Takes On the Credit Ratings Giants

For most of the 20th century, three bond ratings agencies—Moody's, Fitch, and Standard & Poor's—dominated the credit ratings industry, recently controlling 97 percent of... View Details

Keywords: by Maggie Starvish; Banking; Financial Services

2020
Working Paper

Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender

By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi

We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct... View Details

Keywords: Executive Gender; Default; Recovery Rates; Debt; Corporate Bonds; Conservatism; Leadership; Gender; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Risk Management