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- All HBS Web (308)
- Faculty Publications (85)
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- 2012
- Working Paper
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-065, January 2011. (Revised September 2012, Internet Appendix Here.)
- December 2009
- Article
Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns
By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in... View Details
Malloy, Christopher J., Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns." Journal of Finance 64, no. 6 (December 2009): 2427–2480. (Finalist for the 2010 Smith Breeden Prize for the best paper in the Journal of Finance.)
- Working Paper Summaries
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
- 2008
- Working Paper
Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns
By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional... View Details
Malloy, Christopher J., Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-060, January 2008.
- September 2004 (Revised December 2004)
- Case
Bank Leu's Prima Cat Bond Fund
In 2001, Bank Leu, a Swiss private bank, is considering creating the world's first public fund for catastrophe bonds. Cat bonds are securities whose payments depend on the probability of a catastrophe occurring, such as an earthquake or hurricane. Cat bonds are... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Bonds; Natural Disasters; Insurance; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Insurance Industry; Switzerland
Chacko, George C., Peter A. Hecht, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman, and Adam J. Plotkin. "Bank Leu's Prima Cat Bond Fund." Harvard Business School Case 205-005, September 2004. (Revised December 2004.)
- 15 Jun 2012
- Working Paper Summaries
Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market
Keywords: by Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina
- Article
Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Assets; Bonds; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management; Insurance Industry
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Journal of Finance 70, no. 5 (October 2015): 1863–1902.
- 2012
- Working Paper
Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Reaching-for-yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyses this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Bonds; Assets; Risk Management; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Insurance Industry
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-103, May 2012. (Revised December 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18909, March 2013)
- May 2005 (Revised January 2006)
- Case
Ticonderoga: Inverse Floating Rate Bond
Presents a simple interest hedging exercise. A hedge fund is considering an investment in a structured fixed--income product: an inverse floating-rate bond, or inverse floater, designed by a U.S. investment bank. The hedge fund's normal policy is to hedge interest rate... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Investment Funds; Interest Rates
Chacko, George C., and Anders Sjoman. "Ticonderoga: Inverse Floating Rate Bond." Harvard Business School Case 205-113, May 2005. (Revised January 2006.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
LASH Risk and Interest Rates
By: Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell and Ioana Neamtu
We introduce a framework to understand and quantify a form of liquidity risk that we dub Liquidity After Solvency Hedging or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against losses, using strategies that lead to liquidity needs when the value... View Details
Keywords: Liquidity; Monetary Policy; Non-bank Intermediaries; Hedging; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Funds; Financial Condition; Interest Rates
Alfaro, Laura, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell, and Ioana Neamtu. "LASH Risk and Interest Rates." Bank of England Staff Working Papers, No. 1,073, May 2024. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33241, December 2024.)
- June 2016
- Article
Local Currency Sovereign Risk
By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details
Du, Wenxin, and Jesse Schreger. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk." Journal of Finance 71, no. 3 (June 2016): 1027–1070.
- November 2004 (Revised April 2005)
- Case
Deutsche Bank: Discussing the Equity Risk Premium
Two members of Deutsche Bank's Fixed Income Research Group are discussing how to advise clients on bond vs. equity asset allocation. A critical aspect to this asset allocation decision is the equity risk premium. Discusses a unique way developed by the bank for... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Asset Management; Bonds; Capital Markets; Investment Banking; Institutional Investing; Equity; Banking Industry; Germany
Chacko, George C., Peter A. Hecht, Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Deutsche Bank: Discussing the Equity Risk Premium." Harvard Business School Case 205-040, November 2004. (Revised April 2005.)
- June 2012
- Article
Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2012): 57–87.
- 07 Oct 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy
- 26 Feb 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns
- July 1997 (Revised September 1997)
- Case
USAA: Catastrophe Risk Financing
By: Kenneth A. Froot and Mark Seasholes
Describes the first major risk financing using catastrophe bonds. Provides a basis for discussing the securitization of insurance risks. View Details
Keywords: Financial Management; Insurance; Capital Markets; Natural Disasters; Risk Management; Bonds; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States
Froot, Kenneth A., and Mark Seasholes. "USAA: Catastrophe Risk Financing." Harvard Business School Case 298-007, July 1997. (Revised September 1997.)
- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
- January 2018 (Revised January 2021)
- Case
Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer
By: John Macomber, Maria Fernanda Miguel and Mariana Cal
Colombia conceived its 4G (Fourth Generation) Road Program to try to attract $17 billion from the private sector for investment in toll roads. The nation had also created the National Infrastructure Agency of Colombia (ANI) to oversee multiple investments, and the... View Details
Keywords: Private Public Partnerships; Infrastructure; Projects; Finance; Emerging Markets; Colombia
Macomber, John, Maria Fernanda Miguel, and Mariana Cal. "Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer." Harvard Business School Case 218-062, January 2018. (Revised January 2021.)
- August 2021
- Article
Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun
We provide evidence that bond fund managers misclassify their holdings, and that these misclassifications have a real and significant impact on investor capital flows. In particular, many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their... View Details
Keywords: Mutual Funds; Economics; Finance; Measurement and Metrics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry
Chen, Huaizhi, Lauren Cohen, and Umit Gurun. "Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds." Journal of Finance 76, no. 4 (August 2021): 1699–1730. (Winner of the Best Paper Prize at the University of Cambridge Consortium on Asset Management, 2020; Winner of the Financial Management Association Best Paper Prize in Quantitative Investments, 2020.)
- December 2020
- Article
Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy
By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger
We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details
Du, Wenxin, Carolin Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3097–3138.