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2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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September 2024
Case

Myeloma Investment Fund

By: Kyle Myers and Scott Sawaya

This case explores a critical decision facing the Myeloma Investment Fund (MIF) as it evaluates two investment opportunities aimed at accelerating a cure for multiple myeloma.

The MIF, a venture philanthropy fund, must choose between two distinct paths. One... View Details

Keywords: Venture Philanthropy; Biomedical Research; Investing For Impact; Innovation ＆ Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Science-Based Business; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Decision Making; Health Care and Treatment; Biotechnology Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry

2024
Working Paper

Behavioral Attenuation

By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang

We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Behavioral Finance

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2024
Working Paper

The New Digital Divide

By: Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres

We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics; Geographic Location; Behavior; Technology Adoption; Demographics

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September–October 2024
Article

Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong

By: Michael Luca and Amy C. Edmondson

When considering internal data or the results of a study, often business leaders either take the evidence presented as gospel or dismiss it altogether. Both approaches are misguided. What leaders need to do instead is conduct rigorous discussions that assess any... View Details

Keywords: Information; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Decision Making

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2024
Working Paper

Determinants of Top-Down Sabotage

By: Hashim Zaman and Karim R. Lakhani

We investigate the conditions that motivate managers to impede the growth of talented subordinates due to fears of future competition for their own positions. Our research expands on existing tournament and contest theory literature that considers peer-to-peer sabotage... View Details

Keywords: Succession Planning; Organizational Hierarchy; Compensation; Promotions; Tournaments; Talent and Talent Management; Organizational Structure; Employee Relationship Management; Performance Evaluation; Organizational Culture; Management Skills

August 2024
Case

Sky Therapeutics: Innovating in Digital Therapeutics

By: Satish Tadikonda, Olivia Reszczynski and William Marks

Shad Faraz and Alex Youssef were intrigued by the opportunities in the relatively new area of Digital Therapeutics. Despite initial successes, early entrants had struggled with reimbursement and revenue-predictability challenges. However, venture investors still... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Mission and Purpose; Health Care and Treatment; Technological Innovation; Business Strategy; Health Industry; Technology Industry

2024
Working Paper

How Real Is Hypothetical?: A High-Stakes Test of the Allais Paradox

By: Uri Gneezy, Yoram Halevy, Brian Hall, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven

Researchers in behavioral and experimental economics often argue that only incentive-compatible mechanisms can elicit effort and truthful responses from participants. Others argue that participants make less-biased decisions when the stakes are sufficiently high.... View Details

Keywords: Research; Behavioral Finance; Economics; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias

2024
Case

EPCorp: What Story Does the Data Tell?

By: Jacob M. Cook

In EPCorp: What Story Does the Data Tell?, the Quick Case begins with Shivani Bahl researching problems with her company's website so that she can begin to analyze which option would help EPCorp most: selling all its products on Amazon or improving its own data... View Details

Keywords: Distribution Channels; E-commerce; Analytics and Data Science; Decision Making

July 24, 2024
Article

Research: How Passion Can Backfire at Work

By: Erica R. Bailey, Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz

Passion has long been championed as a key to workplace success. However, scientific studies have found mixed results: On the one hand, some studies find evidence that passionate employees tend to perform better, while other research has documented null or even negative... View Details

Keywords: Performance Effectiveness; Personal Characteristics; Behavior; Outcome or Result

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July 22, 2024
Article

Why People Resist Retirement

By: Teresa M. Amabile

Research suggests making the decision to retire means grappling with three psychological issues. First, identity issues can loom large for any deeply engaged professional. Even a small step away from a career can make a person wonder who they are without it. Second,... View Details

Keywords: Retirement; Identity; Leadership; Satisfaction; Relationships; Age

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July 2024
Module Note

The Scope of the Corporation

By: David J. Collis

Every company, regardless of size or configuration, has to make decisions about the appropriate scope of its operations. In fact, the issue is so fundamental that Ronald Coase won the Nobel Prize in Economics for merely asking the question, “what determines the scope... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Strategy; Mission and Purpose

July 2024
Article

A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior

By: Katherine B. Coffman, Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

Many decisions—such as what educational or career path to pursue—are dynamic in nature, with individuals receiving feedback at one point in time and making decisions later. Using a controlled experiment, with two sessions one week apart, we analyze the dynamic effects... View Details

Keywords: Feedback; Beliefs; Stereotypes; Self-assessment; Gender Gap; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions

July 2024
Article

Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI

By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni

Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details

Keywords: Autonomy; Chatbots; New Technology; Brand Crises; Mental Health; Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning; Behavior; Well-being; Technological Innovation; Ethics

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July 2024
Article

How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience

By: A. Valenzuela, S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino and K. Wertenbroch

Many consumption decisions and experiences are digitally mediated. As a consequence, consumer behavior is increasingly the joint product of human psychology and ubiquitous algorithms (Braun et al. 2024; cf. Melumad et al. 2020). The coming of age of Large Language... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; User Experience; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits

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2024
Working Paper

Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms

By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Chris Karr

Understanding the behavior of users online is important for researchers, policymakers, and private companies alike. But observing online behavior and conducting experiments is difficult without direct access to the user base and software of technology companies. We... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Technology Adoption; Behavior; Research; Consumer Behavior; Internet and the Web

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June 2024
Case

SnapTravel: Betting on 'Super.com'

By: Reza Satchu and Tom Quinn

This case explores SnapTravel, a travel startup offering discounted hotel rooms, and its founders’ desire to pivot to a “super app” that saved customers money across many different purchase types. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Hussein Fazal and Henry Shi saw SnapTravel... View Details

June 2024
Article

Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers

Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits

June 2024
Article

Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke

This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society

May 2024
Article

Moral Thin-Slicing: Forming Moral Impressions from a Brief Glance

By: Julian De Freitas and Alon Hafri

Despite the modern rarity with which people are visual witness to moral transgressions involving physical harm, such transgressions are more accessible than ever thanks to their availability on social media and in the news. On one hand, the literature suggests that... View Details

Keywords: Moral Judgement; Thin Slices; Social Media; Fake News; Misinformation; Moral Sensibility; News; Behavior

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